Scottish independence by numbers
Peter Hoskin 7:34pm
It's far from the first poll on Scottish independence in recent years, or even in recent
days, but YouGov's effort for Channel4 this evening contains some noteworthy findings nonetheless.
What is does is replicate the conditions that — for the reasons that Peter Kellner explains in a very useful blog post here — Alex Salmond would like in 2014. Which means two questions, one after the other. First, status quo or ‘devo-max’? Second, status quo or full independence?
And the results? By YouGov's count, 58 per cent of people are in favour of ‘devo-max’ for the first question, with 42 per cent against. And, for the second question, 39 per cent back full independence, with 61 per cent against.
Those headline numbers will, I suspect, mostly encourage Alex Salmond. 39 per cent may be far from overwhelming support for his cause, but it's something to work on. And then there's significant support for his Plan B, of ‘devo-max’, which would be no mean consolation in the end. What's more, some of the supplementary numbers also swing Salmond's way. For instance, 44 per cent of people reckon the Scottish government alone should make decisions about the content and timing of the referendum, which surpasses those advocating cooperation between Holyrood and Westminster.
But the finding that caught my eye is one that may prey on Salmond's mind. You see, while 46 per cent of people want a choice — as he does — between independence, ‘devo-max’ and the status quo, another 43 per cent want it to be just between independence and the status quo. That's gap in Salmond's favour, but perhaps a smaller gap than we might have anticipated.
This is certainly something that George Osborne will look to work in the Unionists' favour in coming months. If he can tease public opinion against a three-choice referendum, and then somehow reflect that in the referendum itself, then many of Salmond's advantages will have been eradicated. No ‘devo-max’ means less hope of victory, of any sort, for the Nats.
But, that said, it's not going to be easy for Osborne. Even putting aside problems about perceived interference from London, and questions about whether Scotland will go ahead with its own referendum regardless, it is generally more difficult to argue for less choice rather than more. So perhaps Salmond won't be that concerned after all.



Previous






Fergus Pickering
January 16th, 2012 7:47pm Report this commentWhat is devomax? Have we been told? And will it involve the English shovelling more money Salmond's way? And if it does, can we be asked whether we want to do this?
Russell
January 16th, 2012 8:01pm Report this commentThere is absolutely no need for a Scottish referendum on 'devo-max'. Even if Scots want 'devo-max', the UK government can simply say NO, it is not a Scottish matter, it is a UK matter.
Just let the scotch have their referendum on Independence, vote Yes and bu**er off, as the majority of the population don't want the whingers in the UK.
Refuse to let them use the Bank of England £pound.
Withdraw all Defence contracts (aircraft carriers etc.), shut down all Air Force bases, Army bases and Navy bases.
Withdraw all Search * Rescue facilities, sack all public sector employees and relocate any English ones to England.
Replace all public sector employees who are scotch working in England with English employees.
The list of benefits to England would be never-ending.
Chris Morris
January 16th, 2012 8:04pm Report this commentI am sure I am not the only Englishman to wish these whinging Scots to leave, and leave quickly.
In the words of Oliver Cromwell:
"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately ... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"
Peter From Maidstone
January 16th, 2012 8:07pm Report this commentWhy should we care? Alex Salmond is of less consequence even than Nick Clegg. He is the first minister of what is essentially a large council. And if he gets what he wants (and what does he really want that is not power, wealth and influence for himself) then Scotland will wake up very much the poorer, more isolated and of even less consequence than it is now.
Kittler
January 16th, 2012 8:13pm Report this commentOf course it's not going to be easy for Osborne. Referendum, choice, if this isn't soundly dealt with, could end up with something dreadful happening like this re the EU.
WetherspoonThree
January 16th, 2012 8:19pm Report this commentWhy is this a problem for Osborne? Scottish independence is primarily a problem for the Labour Party and its survival as a credible opposition at Westminster. Of course, young Osborne should go through the motions of supporting the Union but sotto voce, if you please.
jase
January 16th, 2012 8:32pm Report this commentHow about giving us english a say whether we want independence as well. All this talk of the scotts wanting away over shadows the English needs.
George Shepherd
January 16th, 2012 8:49pm Report this commentDevo Max = small localized government, with greater tax and spend transparency
What's not to like and why won't London and the South east want this soon as well??
andrew kerins
January 16th, 2012 8:50pm Report this commentThe SNP manifesto promised a vote on Independence; not a menu of alternative choices. If Labour and the Tories hold their nerve, there will be one question. As I have written before, two questions would allow a vote in favour of both Devo Max (the details of which, nobody has worked out)and Independence.
Alexis
January 16th, 2012 8:52pm Report this commentWhat is Devo max? This sounds more worrying than independence.
Dick Mungin
January 16th, 2012 8:53pm Report this commentInteresting poll results but in the analysis you are missing something. Various outriders for Salmond, up here in Scotland, are desperately whipping up support for the inclusion of a question on Devo Max. I'm increasingly coming to the view that Salmond knows he's got little real chance of getting a Yes vote for independence. Devo Max is a staging post which will allow him to hold on to power pending one final push for the full bhoona. This is his real intention. Given the nasty tenor of the debate so far I fear that some of we Scots will physically be at each others throats by 2014. The prospect of years of conflict beyond that date is truly depressing. Shall we inherit a Scotland, post 2014, which is so split that we face years of reconciliation? Let's have a single Yes/No referendum and take part in the evolution of the UK into a more federal system. In my view Salmond and elements of the current leadership of the SNP have shown them selves unfit for the power they so desperately desire.
Jeremy
January 16th, 2012 8:56pm Report this commentPete Hoskin:
"And the results? By YouGov's count, 58 per cent of people are in favour of ‘devo-max’ for the first question, with 42 per cent against. And, for the second question, 39 per cent back full independence, with 61 per cent against."
The battle will not be over independence, it will be over 'devo-max'.
I don't think that 'devo-max' should be included on the ballot paper. I think it should be a straightforward 'In or Out' question. But if 'devo-max' is included, then it must not come to the Scots free of charge. It must not be a something-for-nothing option. If the Scots go for 'devo-max', then they must be prepared to give up something in return - in terms of their influence over England and the benefits they receive from it.
Keith
January 16th, 2012 9:15pm Report this commentThe harder Osborne argues for the retention of the Union, the more likely the Scots are to vote for independence.
Osborne must know that.
So he is really campaigning for the break-up of the Union.
But the Scots aren't smart enough to see that.
Are they?
c0mat0es
January 16th, 2012 9:39pm Report this commentUp to two referenda, please, separated by three months:
Referendum 1 - Independence, YES or NO?
If NO, referendum 2 - Status quo or more devolution?
Martin Alexander
January 16th, 2012 9:56pm Report this commentRussell......You show your ignorance by describing the people of Scotland as Scotch...Please try harder or find a blog that best suits your intellect..
Martin
Right On
January 16th, 2012 10:04pm Report this commentFurther devolution can't be addressed within a Scotland only referendum - it would create a significant constitutional issue for the rest of the UK.
Scotland would have a significant advantage over the north of England if it could lower it's tax rates and the regions of England couldn't do the same.
As such any attempt for a Devolution Max referendum should be blocked by Westminster.
Ryan Cook
January 16th, 2012 10:53pm Report this commentWell my view is that Scotland SHOULD go indapendant, and all Scots aged 16+ should vote.
Malfleur
January 16th, 2012 10:54pm Report this commentFix the CoffeeHousers’ Wall, please.
Siôn Eurfyl Jones
January 16th, 2012 11:08pm Report this commentWhat is the status quo? As it is now, or as it will be after a revised Scotland bill is enacted? And if it is the latter, what will the revisions be? I think the unionists should tell us now.
Ostrich (occasionally)
January 16th, 2012 11:25pm Report this commentMartin Alexander 16th, 9:56pm
Oh, dear. Another one.
Are you English Martin? No?
Perhaps you are unaware that the ENGLISH word for a person claiming Scotland as their country of origin is 'Scotchman'. The Scotch (or in your language, Scottish) word is, of course, Scotsman.
Jock MacSporran
January 16th, 2012 11:26pm Report this comment"44 per cent of people reckon the Scottish government alone should make decisions about the content and timing of the referendum, which surpasses those advocating cooperation between Holyrood and Westminster."
What "cooperation between Holyrood and Westminster" really means: Scotland will hold the referendum when London says, ask what London says, and have it monitored by London's electoral commission. Some "cooperation"!
Angus McLellan
January 16th, 2012 11:27pm Report this comment@Right On: Perhaps you need to think harder about this.
Scenario A, devomax. Scottish govt cuts corporation tax by 3% and has to cut health, benefits, or similar to compensate. Not an easy choice as votes may be lost.
Scenario B, independence. Scottish government cuts corporation tax by 3%, cost absorbed by reduced defence, aid or foreign affairs spending. Easy choice, win-win.
daniel maris
January 16th, 2012 11:37pm Report this commentFrom Section 1 of the Act of Union 1707
"That the Two Kingdoms of Scotland and England, shall upon the 1st May next ensuing the date hereof, and forever after, be United into One Kingdom by the Name of GREAT BRITAIN"
Looking at this Act, it seems pretty clear to me that only the UK parliament can legally dissolve the union (same principle as in the USA - would required a constitutional amendment to allow secession). But - more importantly - it is clear that England and Scotland created this union jointly. If Scotland leaves, the united kingdom dies with its secession and there are TWO new successor states, not one. In which case BOTH England and Scotland have to re-apply for EU membership, if they wish to.
Swiss Bob
January 16th, 2012 11:53pm Report this commentMA, it is obviously meant to be perjorative but it's not incorrect:
"The terms Scottish, Scot, Scots, and Scotch are all variants of the same word"
George Mc
January 17th, 2012 12:26am Report this commentDick Mungin, I whole heartedly endorse and agree with your judgement on Salmond tactics. He is determined that we should split and has gone full tilt to upset the voters south of the border (Russell will be easily upset regardless and would perhaps be better finding a publication 3 or 4 degrees further right that Attila the Hun to express his views on).
You are right in pointing out that anyone in Scotland who supports the Union in any way immediately becomes a hate figure and called a North Britisher or something equally banal.
I have been saying to anyone who will listen since the SNP came to power that they may possibly win the battle but how on earth are they going to ‘win the peace’? They have generated so much bad feeling that if they don’t get it right (economy) immediately they will see an exodus of the upwardly mobile to all points south. Unfortunately they are generating so much heat that if they lose then the mobile among their supporters will probably be off to.
Salmond has started a very destructive debate and I don’t see how we can come out of it in any positive manner.
George Mc
January 17th, 2012 12:46am Report this commentSwiss Bob - I think you need to take a lead from the Scots on this one, Scotch is a drink!
Fergus Pickering
January 17th, 2012 2:51am Report this commentWhy is Scotch pejorative? North British whinger sounds pejorative to me. I see Jock lets the cat out of the bag. It's all about money and the Scots getting lots of it. Devomax to me means Scots raising their own money through taxation and paying a fee to the English for defence etc. They can have as much of the oil as it is decided that they are entitled to and there would be an end to ANY formula that passes money to them from the English exchequer. If they want to use the pound then they can but obviously they would be unable to control its value in any way. If they want a currency of their own (the poondie?) then Scottish banks must issue it. Sound OK, Jock? Best of luck my kilted friend.
Mike H
January 17th, 2012 3:53am Report this commentNo to DevoMax! DevoMax is a monetary union, but not a fiscal union. It would be a copy of what Euroland has and is a disaster over there and would be a disaster here. Surely that point can be clearly put across?!
Herbert Thornton
January 17th, 2012 4:15am Report this commentThe anti-Scotch tone of so many posts seems, to me to be hysterical and quite unnecessarily nasty.
Talk of repatriating Scots - even ones in public employment - to Scotland and repatriating English people living in Scotland back to England is especially disturbing. How can anybody seriously suggest it?
How can these posters feel the need to stir up animosity between Scots and English yet ignore the presence in the U.K. of huge numbers of illegal immigrants and dangerously treasonous religious extremists? Surely those are the ones who ought to be repatriated?
If I have a choice between decent Scots folk on the one hand and fraudulent asylum-seekers and potential Islamic terrorists on the other as my neighbours I much prefer the Scots, thank you.
Fergus Pickering
January 17th, 2012 7:19am Report this commentScotch is also a mist. a tape, a corner and doubtless plenty of other things. Still, if the inhabitants of Scotland find it akin to queer and the n word, well I will accommodate them. Is Jock all right, as in Paddy and Taffy? Rather a humourless and touchy lot on the whole, these celts. Still, they have the misfortune not to be English (the ultimate prize in the lottery of life) so I sympathise. Of course Scots are welcome here. Nice people on the whole when they are not whingeing on about nationhood. I live in Kent. We are a nation too (indeed we are two separated by the Medway) but we keep it to ourselves.
Sir Everard Digby
January 17th, 2012 7:28am Report this commentDevo max = independence minus. Scotland may vote to keep taxation revenues raised in the country and pay the UK for services provided. I may want access to the contents of your bank account to pay some of my bills. In both cases, both parties need to have a say.
This situation is not about independence -Scotland would become more like a franchise under devo max,effectively paying the UK royalties.
This seems to be a major retraction from the SNP's 2010 election position,where they wanted to be removed from the 'failings of Westminster'
EC
January 17th, 2012 7:41am Report this commentDevoMax = KleptoMax?
EC
January 17th, 2012 8:03am Report this commentC.P.G. Grey:
"The Difference between the United Kingdom, Great Britain and England Explained:
*ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNu8XDBSn10
Nicholas
January 17th, 2012 8:20am Report this commentDaniel Maris' comment on the Union is pertinent. Devolution has already undermined the basis of the Union by creating a Scots parliament. There is no going back. It is a constitutional mess - like the rest of New Labour's constitutional tinkering.
tb
January 17th, 2012 8:28am Report this commentHas anybody explained what we do with Scottish MPs with devo max?
Obviously they won't be able to vote on issues they are not accountable for.
But can a party form a government with them?
Even if without them on the majority of votes they could be a minority government...
Dranyer
January 17th, 2012 8:34am Report this commentSalmond has zero mandate to bring forward whatever devo max is supposed to be to the referendum. None. His "mandate" was for a referendum on independence and that's exactly what he will get. He will fail to win a straight yes/no question and he knows it. If the other players genuinely want to hold the union together all they need to do is stonewall any requests for devo max to be added to the referendum. It might seem popular of course but thats not the point and its not going to be bounced onto the agenda by Nats scared they are going to lose the referendum and be made irrelevant.
Salmond will be defeated by not entertaining this drivel about devo max. Simple as that.
banshees
January 17th, 2012 8:36am Report this commentMr salmond has had 10yrs homework on the subject.while unionists laughed at the idea od a scots parliament nevermind a majority nationalist scottish gvt!salmond has left the unionists and london rattled and they havent got a clue how to respond.it was a scot who who started the Bank of England!as for national debt yes scots will take share of it.even though it was london bankers who caused the mess .
Peter From Maidstone
January 17th, 2012 8:51am Report this commentFergus, are you in East or West Kent? I am proud that we are an ancient Kingdom, and that even before the Romans came the people who lived here gave their name to the place.
If Scotland can demand independence then why not Kent?
alexsandr
January 17th, 2012 9:01am Report this commentthere are only 2 kingdoms in the UK, Scotland and England. if Scotland leave then it isnt a United Kingdom anymore. its England, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Anyway, why dont we make the sweaty socks have NI. Most of the majority Protestant are of Scottish descent so let the Scots sort it out.
Mac
January 17th, 2012 9:30am Report this commentPray tell how is George Osborne, a Tory, going to convince the Scots, who despise Tories, not to have a multi-option referendum?
The answer is he won't and never will. The battle of hearts and minds have already been lost - Holyrood Rules - Westminster Sucks.
Nicholas
January 17th, 2012 9:31am Report this commentWhatever happens I'm reasonably confident of two things.
1. The Scots will have their cake and eat it.
2. The English won't have any cake at all.
Percy
January 17th, 2012 10:05am Report this commentHaving your cake and eating it is the favoured option? Well I never.
interested party
January 17th, 2012 10:26am Report this commentHoskin, is there any reason why there has been no winner announced for the Christmas compo? No prevarication.
EC
January 17th, 2012 10:51am Report this commentGood point alexsandr @9:01am. Haven't the Catholics in NI outbred the Prods yet? Why not let NI have a referendum to see if they would like to be part of Eire?
While we're on the subject, I'm certain that the people of the Shetland Isles would like a legally binding vote as whether they would also like to be independent of Scotland.
Hexhamgeezer
January 17th, 2012 11:15am Report this commentBTW, if, in the unlikely event, that the Scots do give us the big finger, we will need border patrols. You lot down south will need to re-arm the reivers and I've got my application ready. The eastern Lowlands (including Edinburgh) were always part of Northumbria so expect a bit of trouble pnce we've had a few pints.
Dimoto
January 17th, 2012 11:23am Report this commentDick Mungin:
"In my view Salmond and elements of the current leadership of the SNP have shown them selves unfit for the power they so desperately desire".
Dick, I would hazard a guess that increasing numbers of Scots have seen right through Salmond and his gimcrack notions.
But given the lack of credibility of (Scottish) Labour, LibDems and Conservatives, where is the sensible alternative ?
oldtimer
January 17th, 2012 11:41am Report this commentA three choice referendum question is not very sensible as it offers the possibility of a three way split with no clear result. I recall a few years ago that there was a multiple choice question in the HoC re HoL reform which produced a stalemate result. Indeed Salmond could argue that voting for no change would be pointless in a three way question; no doubt he has long since thought this through.
He should be denied the devomax question. As someone has already pointed out that will merely serve to emphasise the West Lothian question and the failure to resolve it. Devomax merely adds to the uncertainties and unthought through implications of the Salmond bid for more and more power. It should be a simple in or out question with the existing electorate.
Dimoto
January 17th, 2012 11:48am Report this commentI don't see the worry with "Devomax".
It is basically a face-saver for Salmond, and clearly only advisory.
That is the problem with referenda - a simple question.
Salmond's utopian view of "independence" is a fantasy, and the Scottish voter can have no real idea of what independence really means. Does anyone actually know ?
Similarly, "DevoMax" is just a meaningless slogan, hinting at all the benefits and none of the costs.
To be fair, "EU - in or out ?" would be an equally daft question to put to an electorate not particularly interested in politics, let alone the minutiae and implications of the EU treaties.
Drayner
January 17th, 2012 12:00pm Report this comment@oldtimer; you can be quite sure Salmond has thought it through, it's what he is all about after all and his strategy will have been in place and tested to destruction in the lead up to this which is why he needs to be handled carefully and skillfully. But HE and no nat can really be seen to be pushing the argument for devo max. They have no mandate to do so, their sttaed policy was to hold a referendum on INDEPENDENCE and that alone. And that's what they will have. He will now use the timeframe to allow/encourage various elements of "civic life" in Scotland to argue the case for the addition of devo max to this referendum. It needs to be stonewalled. The Labour party up here would normally argue for it, plenty of tories would now argue for it but it is an entirely different argument from independence and shouldn't be allowed to muddy the waters at all. We, up here, want a clear answer to Salmonds independence question and we will give him a clear answer. If he is damaged politically by a no vote then all good but that's in no way clear yet.
One thing is sure is that the devo max question will be allowed to float around out there by the nationalists as it giuves them a pretty strong fall back point if/when the country delivers a no vote. It cant be allowed to cause confusion and we deserve the chance to give Salmond a clear answer to his question. If he wants devo max he can put it in his manifesto for the election to Holyrood that will follow shortly after the big referendum, and I'm pretty sure Scottish Labour will support that.
Its completely unfair to the other bits of the UK that dont get a chance to vote on something like this but it's a natural result of a totally crappy devolution "settlement" the ratchet effect was always going to lead this way if any of the constituent parts of the UK with devolved powers happened to chance upon a strong leader like Salmond. It was ALWAYS most likely to happen in Scotland as was argued at the time by myself and others that opposed devolution at the time. But there's no going back on it now.
Fatbloke on tour
January 17th, 2012 12:03pm Report this commentPH
As has been noted earlier we have the strange site of an independence movement going hell for leather towards upmarket devolution. The complete cast of media personalities, tame journalists and bought pundits is now being wheeled out in daily waves to spread the Devo Max gospel.
We don't know what it is but we are supposed to love it just the same.
Wee Eck might be a political soufflé but he knows that Scottish independence will not last 10 minutes of proper scrutiny.
Consequently the need for a back up plan.
Consequently the need for Devo Max.
This he can win.
This he can manipulate.
Ten years of Wee Eck playing "Laugh a minute" economics with corporation tax to steal bread out of the mouths of poor English children will not bring about Scottish independence it will bring about English separation.
Or job done as they say in Tartan Tory Land.
Finally on a similar note.
What happens if the Scots want the status quo but English want rid of us?
Who's opinion comes first?
Who's opinion takes precedence?
Can this Scots be expelled from the UK?
Can England vote itself independent?
Wee Eck knows he can't win a straight fight.
That is why he is playing it dirty.
JMacA is the private attitudes of the Tartan Tories made public.
She is a nasty piece of work with repugnant views on a number of topics.
You have to ask why Wee Eck puts up with her?
And before anyone asks she is far too young.
Wee Eck like a lot of his SNP generation is a grab a granny merchant.
Consequently he must appreciate her intellect and not her 'womanliness'.
Given her attitudes that is more worrying than the desire to give her the odd length.
Nicholas
January 17th, 2012 12:06pm Report this comment"Having your cake and eating it is the favoured option? Well I never."
Not what I wrote, Percy, or intended. The "old" meaning of the expression preceded the age of ambition, greed, selfishness and egotism and was pejorative rather than admirable. I used it in that sense. Post-war the British governments have shown themselves to be masters of:-
1. Giving away to their opponents advantage.
2. In pursuit of 1. cocking things up so that no-one is satisfied.
Currently, with devolution, the English as a nation are disadvantaged. I have no doubt that when settled the Scottish question will not alter that situation.
Peter From Maidstone
January 17th, 2012 12:34pm Report this commentFergus, the Medway is just down the end of my garden, beyind the allotments. I am on the west side. I wonder how long ago the distinction arose and what meaning it had?
The last independent king of the Kingdom of Kent was Ealhmund who died in 784. The last client king was Cuthred who died in 807. I think that Kent could do well as an independent Kingdom again, under the Crown. We could certainly tax all traffic through the ports, and develop Manston a lot more than it has been.
MajorFrustration
January 17th, 2012 12:39pm Report this commentAm I missing something? I can see the upside for England if the Scots depart the Union. But what in it for the English if the Scots stay?
Julian F
January 17th, 2012 12:55pm Report this comment"Russell......You show your ignorance by describing the people of Scotland as Scotch...Please try harder or find a blog that best suits your intellect.." (Martin Alexander on 16th January). Maybe, but it is very amusing how use of the term riles up the Scotch so...
Mark Robertson
January 17th, 2012 1:20pm Report this commentI am baffled by the English who do not want us to get independence. They say we are subsidy junkies being funded by England, if that is the case then they should be working avidly for us to leave or at least get full fiscal autonomy where we cannot get any money from England. I do wish you would persuade your great elite & rich leaders Cameron & Osborne of this. The status quo is quite unacceptable, and if it remains, then in your imaginations, we are still making money from England. Good luck to your attempts to influence your great leaders.
NickW
January 17th, 2012 1:26pm Report this commentI recommend readers to log on to "The Scotsman" website, (or other Scottish newspapers) and read what the Scots have to say about the English.
The only way that the English will get any kind of a say in the matter of the Union and the never ending payments and concessions to the Scots is by a boycott of all Scottish goods and services.
The Scots make it clear that the English are their enemies; you do not trade with your enemies.
Mark Robertson
January 17th, 2012 1:34pm Report this commentA question, when the Act of Union, and the members of the Act of Union, England & Scotland become separate countries. What will England do to celebrate being a new Nation?
PS Wales is Principality of England, and Northern Ireland is a Province of England. They need separate negotiations for anything to change for them.
Jock MacSporran
January 17th, 2012 2:12pm Report this commentFergus Pickering - In fact you've "let the cat out of the bag".
You clearly believe rejection of London control is about "getting lots of money for the Scots". My post doesn't
mention "money" - at all. Your true fear is thus revealed: you're worried that
without Scotland's energy wealth England can't make it.
John
January 17th, 2012 2:40pm Report this comment2014( which month?)is effectively over 2 years away. Minds, especially those in England, where I suspect the weight of opinion is moving to divorce and getting it over with,are being made up right now.
After years of putting up with a heavily Scottocentric debate and paying the danegeld imposed upon us by the British, most people whom I talk to are all in favour of a split and they emphatically don't want to wait until 2014.
Political matters have a habit of festering for years and then suddenly coming into focus. The British political class which desperately wants to close the whole issue down has made a point of ignoring England in all this and focusing on the unctuous Salmond. That is no longer acceptable. This national marriage, which the English people never did vote for, should be subject of a simple yes/no referendum in both countries right now.
However,it is useful that "devomax" is being debated as it constitutes yet another variety of English subsidy for Scotland of the sort of which the English are heartily sick. The parallel of Greece and the EU is stark- and totally unnaceptable in England.
Kittler
January 17th, 2012 2:44pm Report this commentDevo Max, well something like that can be found nearby. The Isle of Mann and Channel Islands, collect all the tax and revenues and provide all the services, except the fighting wars.
Can you get any more max and successful than that.
NickW
January 17th, 2012 2:45pm Report this commentSalmond cannot keep the pound if Scotland wants to be independent.
Making sworn enemies of the English and then being dependent on them for fiscal governance is not the action of an "astute politician", it is the action of a politician who has had rather too much Scotch.
Tom Pride
January 17th, 2012 4:01pm Report this commentDick Mungin
January 16th, 2012 8:53pm
A most perceptive and fresh (from North of the Border) comment.
“Salmond knows he's got little real chance of getting a Yes vote for independence. Devo Max is a staging post which will allow him to hold on to power pending one final push for the full bhoona.” - Bang on.
“Given the nasty tenor of the debate so far I fear that some of we Scots will physically be at each others throats by 2014. The prospect of years of conflict beyond that date is truly depressing.” – Glad someone is seeing this danger. The English may be infuriating and now reacting to Scottish provocation but internecine strife is the killer. If the English really wanted to put a stick in the wheel – how about a county by county in / out referendum along the Irish model?
“Let's have a single Yes/No referendum and take part in the evolution of the UK into a more federal system.” – a sensible suggestion.
Rhoda Klapp
January 17th, 2012 4:06pm Report this commentPeople in Scotland hate the london-centric hegemony. They do not always realise that people all over England (and of course Wales and NI) hate it too. It does not advantage us. Most of us are not desperate to keep the Scots in if they do not want to stay. Why should we. Many Scottish commenters appear to think the English want to keep punishing them, and stealing the oil revenures and all that stuff we do. We don't think that way. Westminster might, but all we want is for you to stop moaning. Stop moaning and stay, stop moaning and go. Makes no odds to us. We will manage without you if that is what you want. Just don't keep dragging it out. You don't need to beg for a referendum, you have rights. Devo max? Well, you'd have to negotiate that, and it does affect the rest of us.
Kittler, again with the IoM and the Channel Islands. They are not devolved. They each have historical status which doesn't matter because they are small. No good as an example of anything Scotland can do.
michael
January 17th, 2012 4:17pm Report this commentBlowfish and sidekick Klebb, are floundering
they've lost the plot. Holywood house is in dire need of 'sensible'.
Fatbloke on tour
January 17th, 2012 4:29pm Report this commentKilter @ 2.44
SNP economic policy - at least you are honest.
It is all based on tax tourism and tax planning.
Nothing to do with economic growth.
Everything to do with poncing off the English.
So that is what we have aspire to?
IoM and the Feudal Islands.
Move over Taggart here comes Bergerac.
Thanks but no thanks.
At least the old wife beater will love the low taxes.
Does it include bringing back the birch?
They have used more violence on their populations than they have used on their enemies. How very apt.
Fatbloke on tour
January 17th, 2012 4:43pm Report this commentNickW @ 2.45
The issue is not fiscal it is monetary.
Scotland can raise debt in the form of bonds in the normal way, the issue will be the rate of interest that will be charged.
We will be totally beholden to the Interest rates that apply to the UK, the Market expectations for the strength of sterling and the sustainability of the UK finances.
That is a given and it will have nothing to do with the situation in Scotland. Unfortunately that will only be the start and onto this basic figure will be added a 'Tartan Premium' relating to the fiscal and economic situation in Scotland.
That will include the re-financing of the national debt inherited from the UK and it will include any new debt that has to be raised.
No matter how well the finances are handled in Holyrrod the interest rates will always be higher as the complexity and risk of another country piggy-backing on another country's currency are factored in
That will be from day one.
Money down the drain for one guy's ego.
Or maybe he could go all RBS on us?
Sell debt in Euros / USD's / bawbees.
All the while poncing on good old Sterling.
No wonder he believes in 'Laugh a minute' economics.
Kingstonian
January 17th, 2012 4:55pm Report this commentbanshees @8:36 a.m. Do you have a very wide key at the bottom of your keyboard? It's called the Space Bar and it inserts a space character into your typing. There's also another useful key with an up pointing arrow that allows you to insert capital letters. Thought you might like to know.
BTW, what exactly is the significance of a Scot "starting" the Bank of England?
And if London Bankers caused the mess, where exactly are RBS and HBOS located?
Ghytier
January 17th, 2012 4:58pm Report this commentSalmond is a snake oil salesman, and cannot be trusted. He is acting as an agent provocateur within the whole of the United Kingdom, inciting those who cannot see through his hyperbole to make rash and exaggerated comments. Unfortunately this is largely down to the UK political parties and media who have largely treated Holyrood as a jumped up Parish Council. We need politicians and journalists of stature to show Salmond for what he is. What we have at the moment is nothing short of a joke and the SNP are the only one’s laughing.
Ghytier
January 17th, 2012 4:59pm Report this commentSalmond is a snake oil salesman, and cannot be trusted. He is acting as an agent provocateur within the whole of the United Kingdom, inciting those who cannot see through his hyperbole to make rash and exaggerated comments. Unfortunately this is largely down to the UK political parties and media who have largely treated Holyrood as a jumped up Parish Council. We need politicians and journalists of stature to show Salmond for what he is. What we have at the moment is nothing short of a joke and the SNP are the only ones laughing.
Cynic
January 17th, 2012 5:11pm Report this comment"By YouGov's count, 58 per cent of people are in favour of ‘devo-max’ for the first question ..." Well, what a surprise, I don't think! They see devomax as Scotland getting all the goodies and England footing the bill. Win-win as far as they're concerned. We should say that devomax is not an option. Either they're in or they're out. They can't cherry pick. Me, I'd vote for out, in the unlikely event I'd be consulted about where my money will go.
Radford NG
January 17th, 2012 6:16pm Report this commentLord grant that Marshal Wade/May by Thy Mighty aid...Victory bring./May he Sedition hush/And like a Torrent rush/Rebellious Scots to crush./God Save The King.
Kittler
January 17th, 2012 7:26pm Report this commentCynic, I don't quite think that was a correct explanation of devo-max. It must mean that all taxes and other revenues generated in Scotland will be collected by it's treasury which it will use to fund services provided by its own Government and also contribute an agree amount for common UK ones. As Scotland currently generates a higher per capita revenue this may result in a small diminution of resource available to the rest of the UK but it is not terribly significant.
Kittler
January 17th, 2012 7:40pm Report this commentKingstonian, "where were RBS ans HBOS located" The answer, largely furth of Scotland. Less than 10% of business and employees were in Scotland. They really were not Scottish banks, other than in name. Not even British but Global banks, operating numerous banking entities with separate banking licences in many jurisdictions.
In the unlikely event of these banks existing and failing in a Independent Scotland experts in International Financial Law have claimed that as little as 5% liability in Scotland.
Radford NG
January 17th, 2012 8:14pm Report this commentThere is a vital item missed-out here.Supposing Kittler is right...hoo does it work-out?No advanced Western government opperates using only tax-revenue.Britain has had a deficit for 200 years.In the Thatcher/Major/Blair years the debt to GDP ratio was 40%(that of Germany 62%).Yet the American Republicans and the T-party glib bly talk of a balanced budget...and some-times Osbourne talks of ending the deficit.Have these people worked-out what this means?Only recently Cameron made a gaff by telling people to pay-off their credit-cards and not borrow...which would have damaged the economy.Can governments exist on taxes raised?What would it do to the world economic system?I dont think the political class have thougth this through.
Fatbloke on tour
January 17th, 2012 8:33pm Report this commentKittler @ 7.26
Where are we going to be in 2022?
The oil is on the way down and the money will diminish.
Consequently you are a one club golfer with neo con shrink the state agenda.
Devo max is Wee Eck's fig leaf.
Shows the level of confidence he has in the allure of independence to the Scots public. He knows that any level of scrutiny above that put forward by his pet local press and their coterie of second rate journalists will show that he is butt naked in front of the electorate
The Sun is now the biggest selling tabloid.
The Forger's Gazette is the paper of choice in 4 bed executive homes.
The Herald and the Scotsman are pale shadows of their former selves.
STV is a national joke and the BBC are Radio / Television Shortbread.
Our tastes become more like the English and yet we are supposed to desire independence.
Maybe that is the issue, the closer we become to England the more Wee Eck thinks we want to breakaway. Something is wrong somewhere.
Scotland needs to change.
Scotland needs to grow up.
Scotland needs to renew itself from within.
Swapping one right wing populist for another is not the way forward.
Kittler
January 17th, 2012 8:38pm Report this commentRadford, I was, of course, aware that all governments borrow almost all the time.
Assume that would be allocated/accounted on a per capita basis.
Fatbloke on tour
January 17th, 2012 9:02pm Report this commentKittler @ 8.38
Given Devo Max would Scotland just accept the UK's deficit figure?
What happens if the debt figure turns out to be different?
Would an overspend be carried forward?
Would next years expenditure be cut back?
Under Devo Max would Scotland be allowed a budget a deficit figure higher than the rest of the UK?
How would this be managed?
Would Scotland need a tartan OBR?
Or would Wee Eck's fag packet calculations be good enough?
Martin Alexander
January 17th, 2012 9:38pm Report this commentRussel and Julian F.....For the record I am English...MartinAlexander
Malfleur
January 17th, 2012 10:54pm Report this commentEnglish Bards, and Scotch Reviewers
Julian F
January 18th, 2012 12:01am Report this commentMartin Alexander: in that case, you should know better. You might try referring to an ENGLISH dictionary for the various meanings of "Scotch" before questioning others' intellectual capabilities.
Radford NG
January 18th, 2012 12:19am Report this commentPerhaps we should ask Scotlands greatest living philosopher and economist...Rab C Nesbitt.He makes more sense then all the rest of them put together.He's already demolished the Con/Lib 'welfare' policy:"If somebodies got to be out of work,it might as well be somebody who dosn't want to work".
Fergus Pickering
January 18th, 2012 7:46am Report this commentAh Fatbloke, all becomes clear. You are a North Briton. Of COURSE you talk bollocks. I mean, you would, wouldn't you? Ah, if only the Scots were what you wish they were. But they ain't. They are conservative and suspicious and inward-looking. They always have been. Oh, and fairly corrupt.
Ronald Henderson
January 18th, 2012 6:11pm Report this commentWell I must say that I'm very disappointed by most of the postings I have read here. I have relatives in England. I also have them in Australia, South Africa and the USA. I hold no grudges or bear animosity against the people in any of those countries. Why on earth are so many of your English commentators so bitter about the prospect of Scotland gaining independence? What's the big problem and why are you all getting yourselves into such a tizzy? I had always hoped that Scotland would become independent without the terrible animosity that has shown itself in the past so often when other countries have sought what many of us regard as a natural progression towards democracy. That hope seems to have been vain. Do you have any idea of the sort of malevolence you are spouting in your postings? It's shocking. An independent Scotland would still have the Queen. There would be no border posts. The British Isles wouldn't cease to exist. England and Scotland could be pals. One thing we wouldn't have, would be to have to take part in illegal wars in countries like Iraq. Please, relax, nobody is trying to do you down or steal anything that belongs to you. We just want to do our own thing. What on earth is wrong with that?
UK tenant
January 19th, 2012 11:47pm Report this commentRonald Henderson seems to be the only person talking sense here. Why is there so much hostility between Scottish and English?
We can all argue about who owns this and who deserves that meanwhile we as an island are All suffering due to the greed and ignorance of the people we voted to run our society and help us move forward to have a better future.
We are all to blame.
john
January 22nd, 2012 7:52pm Report this commentI see alot of bitter comments being posted by people on this thread. Unecessarily bitter in my opinion. I don't understand why the English cannot leave Scottish matters to the Scottish. If Cameron and other parties suck as labour continue to condemn Salmonds efforts, it will inevitably lead to more and more Scottish thinking independence is the way forward. Personally speaking as a Scot I would like to see independence yes however as i have many English friend i would much rather "devo-max" which would enable the Scottish to finally prove once and for all that we are not being subsidised(as so many of you are certain of but have no actual facts to back it up).If we were to vote for independence and got it (feared by many politicians as 80% of British oil reserves lie in Scottish waters along with large quantities of the fish stock)and yet you rejected it on some phony claim like labour did in 1979 election then this time I am sure there would be some international pressure to let us leave because that would be a breach of international law. Stating that a country has the right to declare its on sovereignty.
End of leave Scottish matters to the Scottish. and fyi if Scotland did leave it would no longer be acceptable to call it the Kingdom of Great Britain.
Jason Haynes
March 18th, 2012 3:19pm Report this commentI hope they have independance, then we can start by boycotting all Scottish products sold in England starting with every product with "Scottish ...... ".
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