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Thursday 23 February 2012

Thursday, 19th January 2012

Boris' poll lead evaporates

Jonathan Jones 1:30pm

It looks like the May's election for Mayor of London will be a close run thing. A new poll today from YouGov has Ken Livingstone two points ahead of Boris Johnson – a big turnaround from the eight point lead Boris had in June:

Ken shouldn't be popping any champagne corks yet, of course. His lead is well within the poll's margin of error, and there's three and a half months to go before election day. But he's certainly looking more likely to topple Boris than he did seven months ago.

So why the change? YouGov's Peter Kellner has a good article on the poll's details here, but two key points jump out from the numbers:

1. Labour voters are getting behind Ken. In June, 21 per cent of Londoners who said they'd vote Labour in a general election supported Boris over Ken for mayor. Now, that's almost halved to 11 per cent.

2. Boris' ‘out of touch’ problem is growing. YouGov ask voters which qualities they think each of the candidates have. Boris has a big lead when it comes to ‘charisma’, but he's also seen to be far more ‘out of touch’. Just 13 per cent say he's ‘in touch with the concerns of ordinary people’ – down from 20 per cent in June – while 40 per cent say Ken is.

The poll also gives us an idea of the major issues at play in this election. The top two are crime and transport, followed by the cost of living, creating jobs and affordable housing. Boris may hope he can make crime an even more prominent issue, as that's one area where the numbers tilt in his favour.

Filed under: Boris Johnson (83 more articles) , Conservatives (2099 more articles) , Elections (242 more articles) , Ken Livingstone (23 more articles) , Labour (2034 more articles) , London (148 more articles) , Mayor of London (13 more articles) , Polls (254 more articles) , UK politics (4968 more articles)

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PayDirt

January 19th, 2012 1:49pm Report this comment

Who cares? They are both as bad as each other. Neither has the confidence of ordinary Londoners. Heads you lose, tails you lose too.

strapworld

January 19th, 2012 2:35pm Report this comment

Ahh, You Gov the poll that is always wrong.
Now, Peter Kelner of YouGov fame to whom is he married? Baroness Ashton of course.

I have never and will never believe a YouGov poll.

AR

January 19th, 2012 3:12pm Report this comment

Margin of error to a 95% confidence interval. I.e. there is a 1 in 20 chance that the poll is more than 3% out... Decent chance this is an outlier.

David Lindsay

January 19th, 2012 3:49pm Report this comment

In the race for the position of Mayor of London, the lead has been taken by the candidate who tops the poll for the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party and who openly campaigns for anti-Labour candidates of the Far Left.

He is now ahead of the candidate for whom the London Labour Party's paid staff and their courtier media are campaigning, namely the pro-drugs Conservative, an Ottoman aristocrat of very recent extraction who has publicly recited the Shahada in Arabic, who believes that Christianity overthrew a superior civilisation (slavery, pederasty, the games), and who sees the means to putting things right as being a European Union of which the most populous member-state would be Turkey.

Mayor of London? President of the Third World Banana Republic of London, more like it.

Pettros

January 19th, 2012 4:15pm Report this comment

If there is a high vote turn out then Ken has it I fear.

Lindsey David

January 19th, 2012 4:23pm Report this comment

"an Ottoman aristocrat of very recent extraction who has publicly recited the Shahada in Arabic"

Golly - and there I was about to vote for Boris until I discovered he was an Ottoman aristocrat. Thank goodness for the free press. We can't possibly have an Ottoman aristocrat as mayor of London. Was this what we fought two world wars for?

Mrs W

January 19th, 2012 4:37pm Report this comment

I am not sure I believe this You Gov poll has it right. Yes, Ken supports lower/no fares whereas Boris would rather higher fares and invest. A clear difference between them during this economic climate. And for some people, that might make the difference.
But in SW London where I live (yeah yeah) I hear pretty positive things about Boris. Ken looks tired, of Labour's Old School, and the dog who's had his day.

Mrs W

January 19th, 2012 4:39pm Report this comment

PS I am on You Gov's polling lists - and wasn't asked what I thought.

Cogito Ergosum

January 19th, 2012 5:03pm Report this comment

@The Author
@AR 3.12pm

As you both point out, the margin of error in the polling means this result alone does not determine the issue.

Is it too much to ask that the graphs of polling level should include error bars? Perhaps it is, from essay-writing arts graduates.

Ralph

January 19th, 2012 5:16pm Report this comment

You have always got to be tad wary of large swings in polling numbers like this one more so as they seem to run counter to Ashcroft's by election polling.

More polling is needed.

disenfranchised

January 19th, 2012 6:27pm Report this comment

totally sickening, but inclusive ken will probably strut his nauseating stuff once more, because london is now populated by his preferred people. david lindsay's third world banana republic of london sums it, tragic as that is for our capital.
but why does ken love incomers so much? does he think it makes him a far more caring person than those not fawning all over them? most certainly it does.
the pious will ruin the earth.....

Ian Walker

January 19th, 2012 6:37pm Report this comment

A better summation of British politics could not be found that Londoners face a choice between someone 19% of them think is honest and someone 21% of them think is honest.

It would be a sad day for Britain, though, if Ken's adenoidal whinge were to be the opening herald for the Olympic Games.