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Sunday, 22nd January 2012

Gingrich wins South Carolina

Jonathan Jones 1:03am

They said South Carolina would be Mitt Romney's big test. Tonight, he failed it. The networks have called the primary for Newt Gingrich, and CNN's exit poll shows him beating Romney 38-29. It's an astounding turnaround, considering that Romney led by around 10 points just a few days ago.

The Romney campaign is already trying to claim it's not too disappointed by the result – that a few weeks ago they would have been happy with third place, that it's Florida that really matters. But the truth is, he's suffered a big upset. After it looked like he'd won Iowa and he took a solid if unsurprising win in New Hampshire, there was speculation he might sweep every state. Now, with Rick Santorum declared the victor in Iowa and Gingrich beating him in South Carolina, Romney's tally stands at just one out of three.

The next primary will be Florida in ten days time. The latest polling there has Romney up by around 20 points, but they were all conducting before Gingrich caught fire in the last few days. If he's surged there as he has in South Carolina, he could've pulled level with Romney already. And if Santorum drops out after tonight's results, Gingrich could well gain a large share of his supporters too. Santorum's campaign staff says their candidate will carry on, claiming that Gingrich could implode (yet again) and that Romney is vulnerable. But Santorum doesn't have the money to compete in a big state like Florida, so that talk could turn out to be nothing more than bluster.

So all eyes will now turn to the Sunshine State. If Romney wins there, he may be able to shrug off tonight as a blip. If Gingrich wins, Romney will have gone from being odds on to sweep all four January states to winning just one of them – and this race could have a long way to go.

Filed under: Florida (7 more articles) , GOP (332 more articles) , Iowa (9 more articles) , Mitt Romney (85 more articles) , Newt Gingrich (54 more articles) , Primaries (49 more articles) , Republicans (121 more articles) , Rick santorum (36 more articles) , South Carolina (7 more articles) , US politics (319 more articles)

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Comments Post comment

RMH

January 22nd, 2012 9:10am Report this comment

How can "god, guns and gays" GOPers vote for a man whose idea of morals is to dump his cancer striken wife, ask for an open marriage and shag the staff?

Mycroft

January 22nd, 2012 9:52am Report this comment

Passes belief, the Republicans reall have become the stupid party.

roman lee

January 22nd, 2012 10:28am Report this comment

RHM 9.10am. the truly religious section of the GOP is small whose influence is greatly overestimated by the mainly leftwing media to frighten centre ground voters, it is also used as a gap filler when reporters have nothing to say and need to cover there lack of skills at their current employment.

Boudicca

January 22nd, 2012 10:44am Report this comment

Perhaps Mitt Romney should consider paying substantial amounts of back-tax.

Admitting to only paying 15%, when you are monumentally wealthy and many ordinary Americans are paying much more, is obviously a vote loser!

So - does Romney want to keep all his wealth, or does he want to be President? I bet he chooses the money.

David L

January 22nd, 2012 10:48am Report this comment

So, the GOP has coe to this - a run-off between a Mormon, tax-dodging asset stripper, and a pudgy, philandering hypocrite.

Bet the mortgage on Obama's re-election.

John Staples

January 22nd, 2012 10:50am Report this comment

It would be strange if they choose Gingrich to gift Obama a second term, just like he gave Clinton a second term.

Moriarty

January 22nd, 2012 11:10am Report this comment

@RMH: perhaps they think with that track record he's a good chance of picking up Dem voters.

Nice one in the eye for the MSM. The ABC/CNN joint attempt to neutralise Gingrich exploded pleasantly in their faces.

Anan

January 22nd, 2012 11:17am Report this comment

What happened Jonathan Jones?

"But tonight, Gingrich's often-mentioned ‘personal baggage’ looks set to dent that momentum. ABC News is airing an interview with his second wife, Marianne (to whom he was married when he began an affair with his current wife, Callista). Suffice it to say, she's unlikely to shine a positive light on the former Speaker."

"In one clip (above) she claims he asked for an open marriage. And while Gingrich's affairs and divorces are common knowledge, the interview – as well as Romney's new ads featuring Republicans who served under Gingrich in Congress calling him ‘chaotic’ and ‘erratic’ – might change the media narrative from ‘Gingrich on the rise’ to ‘Gingrich under fire’. Even one of Gingrich's crowd-pleasing debate performances tonight might not be able to keep his surge going."

You were extrapolating and constructing narratives which even American comentators weren't doing! Too bad for you it backfired.

justathought

January 22nd, 2012 11:38am Report this comment

RMH The Christian story is all about forgiveness and for the sinner who returns to the path of righteousness.

That said Republicans will vote for Gingrich because they know he will scare the bejesus out of Obama!

Malfleur

January 22nd, 2012 11:45am Report this comment

This is a single issue election: Stop Obama.

Gingrich is the only one to be able to do that - he will shred Obama in debate and, we hope, at the polls.

Matthew Blott

January 22nd, 2012 11:49am Report this comment

@ roman lee

And that's the counter argument - that the religious fanatics influence is overstated. It might well be true but if so, why do GOP candidates feel the need to pander to this section in a way they didn't thirty years ago? I don't care about Gingrich's domestic arrangements - a lousy husband might still be a first rate President (although he won't in this case) but what's unedifying is Gingrich has been quick to pass judgement on others in the past - most notably Bill Clinton.

Heartless Curmudgeon

January 22nd, 2012 12:16pm Report this comment

Open Marriage? Is that like an open sandwich?

Anyway, as long as the current POTUS is opened like a sardine tin, then shredded like a cabbage, that's fine by me.

Pot Head

January 22nd, 2012 12:43pm Report this comment

Reality check- Gingrich polls worse against Obama than any other Republican in the race. He's 11 points behind Obama and he's also the most disliked politician running for Prez.

If the Republican pick Gingrich the lose in November. It's that simple..

Charles

January 22nd, 2012 12:47pm Report this comment

Malfleur - if you looked at the polling data rather than hoping they you might have an informed view. Obama and Romney are pretty much neck and neck (within the MoE) in a forced choice. Obama trounces Gingrich (by somewhere around 15 points). It pretty much the same story on the leadership stats: Gingrich has somewhere around a -25 rating (similar to Ed Miliband) while Obama and Romney both have negatives that balance their positives.

If you want to get Obama out, then Romney is the only one with a chance. If you want to be ideologically pure and scream with frustration from the sidelines then Gingrich is your man

Right On

January 22nd, 2012 2:23pm Report this comment

@Charles

Largely agree, but in no way is Gingrich ideologically pure. I get opposition to Romney and I understand people wanting someone who matches their views, I don't understand backing a flawed candidate who stands no chance and would be hugely divisive against a flawed candidate who at least stands a chance.

Right On

January 22nd, 2012 2:29pm Report this comment

@Pot Head

It's worse than that - if they nominate Gingrich the drag on all other elections could be seriously damage their chances of winning the Senate and of holding onto the house.

It would be an error of monumental proportions.

Augustus

January 22nd, 2012 3:33pm Report this comment

"That said Republicans will vote for Gingrich because they know he will scare the bejesus out of Obama!"

Yes, someone who can destroy Obama (with teleprompter) in a national televised debate. And the absolutely stunning rise in Gingrich’s support in the course of mere days will give voters the Red Meat they were looking for. Should Newt win the nomination it would be presumptuous to think millions of moderates won't relish that Red Meat too. And remember, the GOP nominee already has the 'anybody but Obama'
vote.

Verity

January 22nd, 2012 4:35pm Report this comment

Perhaps it's something to do with being called Newt. Mitt doesn't act like that.

David Lindsay

January 22nd, 2012 5:18pm Report this comment

For all practical purposes, America at federal level is now a one-party state, since the other party has made itself unworthy of serious attention.

Already the party of utopian global war without end, at astronomical expense and at whatever cost to the liberties of American citizens, it formally ceased to be the party of family values when a hall full of its activists cheered Newt Gingrich to the echo for his adultery and for his desire to institutionalise it with his second ex-wife.

Voter

January 22nd, 2012 6:41pm Report this comment

And the winner is"....Barack Obama

Kevin

January 23rd, 2012 10:04am Report this comment

"How can 'god, guns and gays' GOPers vote for a man whose idea of morals is to dump his cancer striken wife, ask for an open marriage and shag the staff?"

I thought Democrats loved that kind of nuance.

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