Osborne owes Darling an apology

MaxFactor

Best way to grow the economy? Suck every last drop of demand out of the system.
How did they think for a moment that the private sector would be BOOSTED thousands of jobs being cut from the public sector?
Wankers.

Ian Walker

Comparing Darling's predictions to Osborne's reality is hardly fair. For instance, the Eurozone crisis, while not exactly unpredictable, would not have been factored in at all.

"You can bet that no government will run surpluses large enough to ever reduce that debt below the threshold it crossed today."

That depends. Should things look ropey for the Conservatives when the next election approaches, they can always beef up the powers of the OBR and perhaps make it binding on future governments to run a net surplus of zero over a suitable period. Of course, future government could repeal that, but that might be politically impossible for a while.

David L

Deeply depressing: more cuts surely needed. Time for the Coalition to do what it should have done at the outset. It needs to set up a Commission, as Canada and Sweden did, to determine what the state can afford in the future, with all options on the table, and no sacred cows (including the NHS and our nuclear arsenal).

AlanL

Obviously as MiliMinor is so useless, Fraser is now having to act as a shill for Labour

He knows very well that Darling's plan relied on strong global growth (esp in Europe). Darling's trajectory would have been even worse than Osborne's.

Don't trust me - the IFS have said so. Bbut it doesn't suit Fraser's "Save Ed" campaign. :-)

Jedi Joe

Fraser,
While it's fair to point out that Osborne will be borrowing more than he expected, it is disingenuous to then state that Darling (a Labour politician)would have adjusted his spending plans accordingly.
Also, don't forget that the growth figures at the time were extremely optimistic and were cooked up by Labour's Treasury. We are in for a lot of pain and there's nothing Osborne or Darling can do about it. Debt would have risen in both cases.

Erc Dawson

It is good to see Fraser agree with Alistair Darling's plans.What we need now is for Mr Osborne to do the same.

Chris lancashire

And do really, really think Darling and Labour would have kept to that debt reduction Mr Nelson?
No, neither do I.

Nick

I'm not really sure what the point is of comparing economic reality today with forecasts made almost three years ago. Especially as the Darling forecasts (note they weren't independent OBR numbers) assumed extremely generous UK growth prospects, a much lower oil price and no EUzone crisis.

Russell

Fraser, I think you have your wires crossed today. Darling & Labour owe the whole of the UK an apology, including leaving Osborne an enormous deficit and the wreckage in every area of government spending needing reform. Banks, Education, MOD, Public sector pensions, Bank regulation, Welfare system....every area of government control/spending wrecked by Labour.

Publius

Another silly piece from Fraser Nelson.

Leonard of Quirm

Truly we are doomed ...

Dimoto

AlanL - it's not so much a "save Ed" campaign, as a "sanctify Darling" campaign.

Darling has become the poster-boy "good Scot" to the BBC and the Westminster chatterati.

The bloke did nothing of note or merit, except to stand up to Brown 'n Balls (after a fashion).

His "numbers" were purest gobbledygook, (3.5% growth ?) with no detail, and no plan, and don't forget this was the chap who (after the election), put us on the hook to "bale out the Euro".

Epic fail Mr Nelson !

P.S. The December deficit number came in below expectations due to "lower than expected expenditures" (not higher tax revenues).

Slim Jim

Ah, so Osborne owes Darling an apology? No, I think that Labour owes this nation an apology for the mess it left the public finances in. Do you really think that if Labour were in government, they wouldn't have plunged us even deeper in debt than we are? Come on Fraser, you can do better than this!

Andy H

Well if the game was to judge the integrity of Darling (or Brown) based on the success of their predictions during their previous Budgets then Labours record would not even bear anything other then complete derision.

I don't think there is a case to answer here.

Hexhamgeezer

An incredible sentiment for a Spec editor to express.

Both Chancellors would have been faced with 'events dear boy, events', particularly from their and Mr N's beloved EU.

Osbourne has been dealt a hand of utter shite. No apology needed to an architect of the fall.

An apology is due from Osb, Cameron, Clegg Darling, Brown etc to the sentient public for lying about the true state of the nation AND the reality we face for the next few years.

Incredible.

sinosimon

Fraser well knows that Darling's plans were predicated on growth predictions that would have made even Brown in his heyday blush at the despatch box.

http://www.ifs.org.uk/budgets/budget2010/chote.pdf

'...we expected tax revenues to grow slightly more slowly than the Treasury over the next few years even if the economy performs as they project. And the Treasury’s forecasts for economic
growth over the next few years remain higher than the average of independent
forecasts.'

how Fraser thinks comparing reality with a pack of self-serving lies from the Labour spin machine, desperate to cover up the financial mire they had sunk the country into, is helpful is truly beyond understanding...

Magnolia

Yes Fraser we all know that the end game to debt is collapse, hyperinflation or Japan but you are right to draw our attention to the fact that the cuts have not been deep enough and have not been fast enough.
This Conservative government is obsessed with being nice rather than with doing the right things for the country.
We are stuck in 'modernising' mode which ties us to the mast of an era which is now past.

Sir Graphus

Does this include the money that keeps having to be tossed at the IMF?

Andrew Tennant

Darling's numbers were a cynical fantasy based on unfounded and high optimistic assumptions like 3.5% growth *each and every* year of this parliament - twice what *any* country in the EU has achieved in reality.

Darling should be held to account for irresponsibly lying to the public. If I was in government I'd ask the OBR to critique Darling's numbers and issue a commentary as the preface of each budget announcement.

Dimoto

Meanwhile ....

I see Jacques Santer, forced to resign in a welter of fraud and corruption, is to be the new "Eurozone bale-out Czar" (not even Richard Littlejohn could make that one up).

And even (similarly discredited) Romano Prodi is sounding off.

You have to laugh.
The virtues of the guillotine or even the plain old lamp-post, become clearer by the day.

Robinson

"Comparing Darling's predictions to Osborne's reality is hardly fair. For instance, the Eurozone crisis, while not exactly unpredictable, would not have been factored in at all."

Precisely. This analysis is simple minded in the extreme.

Heartless Curmudgeon

So very depressing, and another missed opportunity to do something even a little more daring to correct the chaos let by the Great Economic Pretender and his coterie of posturing wastrels.

Every reason still to hold the H2B's feet to the fire and anyone else who shilly-shallies about getting good money back on the streets and the UK OUT of the EUSSR and all the scams that stitch us up.

Pettros

I always knew Darling was a good man.

Bickers

Disappointing article Fraser. As others have noted Darling's growth figures didn't anticipate the US economy stalling or the collapse of growth in the EU + I doubt we'd have kept our triple A rating this long had NuLabour got back in.

Osbourne has been dealt an awful hand and has done sort of OK up to now. The reality is that spending is still going up when the Nation is effectively bust. Any competent businessman could significantly slash spending without unduly affecting key and necessary front line services. That this isn't happening is a monumental failure of this Coalition. In some respects we need our rating to be downgraded to precipitate the sort of cuts necessary to give our Country a chance of becoming more competitive and not lumbering our children & their children with the debts run up by and continuing to be caused by NuLabour

William Coales

Ian Walker and 'Nick' above are correct. The fact is that, since Darling made his projections, the economic climate has worsened significantly. This mainly due to the Eurozone crisis. Had Labour won the election and had Darling implemented his plan as postulated then we would be in a significantly worse position than we are today with (now) revised 'Darling' curve shifted materially up.
Osborne was entirely correct to describe Darling's plan as "reckless". It was clear then that the risks all lay in lower economic growth and a higher than predicted deficit. The facts have borne this out.
Your hypothesis is not only false but the exact opposite is true

Tankus

Ian Walker nailed it in his first paragraph ..11.40am

Disingenuous of you to say least , Fraser !, not one of your better efforts !

TrevorsDen

Mr Walker is right - Darlings figures were based on fantasy growth and did not take into account of the Euro crisis.

The figure is indeed a bad idea but I await ideas on how to improve it without causing social upheaval. This is what happens when govts care nothing about spending. These figures are labours legacy.

Fatbloke on tour

Trevor

The issue is the lack of growth.
AD / GB managed to get the recovery started.
Sniffy has poisoned the well / pished in the punchbowl with all his talk about cuts and job lasses. Once started all this negativity is hard to turn around.

Dave the Rave is the new Grocer.

4 years of modernising the party to act tough and bring in the politics of dog boiling - it has been done before and It all ended in tears.

Prepare for a very tough next 6-9 months.
Three million unemployed and Dave will be next.

Holly ......

While the Labour bods drag behind by nearly three years, the media follow them like good little soldiers. Of course the media have to print, say or type something to fill in their time & look like they are
on top of the political/financial game, but comparing Darling's intentions of three years ago to todays reality is not a pretty sight.
The one thing we all know, INCLUDING you Fraser, is that Bozo & Balls would not have allowed Darling a 'free hand' to run the treasury. So on top of all the financial mess in Europe, the global economical problems there would have been nutjob Bozo & economy guru Balls to contend with as well.
IMF anyone...We can always blame the bankers...
Some days the posters on here excel themselves.
NEXT!!!

william

abolish all welfare payments,tax credits etc,and face up to the fact that the PSBR is Ponzi Should Be Reinvigorated.

Writeangle

Eventually the UK will have a ratings downgrade which will concentrate minds and mean more cuts due to the rising costs of loans. Ratings companies have promised as much. The only get-out would be if we return to growth but that looks a long way off, especially as the eurozone will be on a strict diet of enforced austerity and recession for the foreseeable future. That is the price of maintaining the failed eurozone experiment. Failure of the zone would be very nasty but at least allows an eventual return to growth for the PIIGS after a few years.

Pettros

Frank P - that is Daily Mail level racism.

Private Schultz

I agree with many other posters - it is innumerate to compare Darling's plans of 2 years ago with Osborne's in response to both Labour's mess and the Eurozone implosion. Disappointing.

David Dee

Osboirne apologising to Darling.

The lightweight idiot should be made to apologise to the whole country and then resign.

He is driving the Country into recession and is too arrogant to admit it.

Osborne's plan was based on growth but then he has starved that off.

Get rid !!!

Fatbloke on tour

Funny how the anti EU mentalists who inhabit SpeccyLand now see the light - the EU means a lot to the UK.

Funny how they quickly forget that the world is growing and how come the UK cannot grow on the back of this global expansion.

We are in for a Tory recession.
First in and last out.
Welcome to Tory "boom and bust".
Unfortunately Dave cannot even manage the "Boom" part.

Fatbloke on tour

In May 2010 the Uzk had a number of things going for it -

Floating exchange.
North Sea Oil
Manufacturing focus
Growth Strategy
Social cohesion
Export opportunities.
Import substitution.

All were based on a desire to move things forward.
The ConDemNation is only interested in politically motivated cuts and dog boiling. They have failed.

General Zod

Darling's plan was based on aspiuration, just like Osborne's. Do you seriously think he would have achieved it, given what's happened since May 2010?

Cynic

"Then, Darling said he'd halve the deficit over four years. Too slow, said Osborne. Now, he's taking five years to do it – as the below graph shows" That won't stop Labour parroting "cutting too hard, too soon", though, will it?

Andy Carpark

Pettros - 'that is Daily Mail level racism'

And THAT is Guardianista level class hatred.

Fatbloke on tour

Cynic

AD was trying to cut / tax £77bill.
That is half the deficit.

Sniffy is trying to cut / tax £122bill.
That is all the structural deficit.

One was possible.
The other was just political posturing.

Herbert Thornton

Pettros (Jan 24th, 2:21pm) wrote -

"Frank P - that is Daily Mail level racism."

I can't make sense of that comment - so far as I can see, nothing from Frank P appears in this thread.

Watcher

Totally agree with others on how misleading it is to compare the two forecasts.
But nobody has mentioned that Darling's plans made no attempt to identify where the cuts/taxes would fall. Very easy to come up with a forecast based on fanciful growth and no underlying details. How's that for political posturing?

Mike Barnes

My my, what a lot of teary eyed Osborne apologists in here today.

At last Fraser realises what Darling warned all along. He said the deficit couldn't be cut in one parliament. The economic recovery was too fragile. The most you could do was half the deficit in one term. Incidentally Cable agreed with this but he doesn't seem to mention that anymore.

Of course Osborne missed his borrowing targets last November, and basically admitted it was IMPOSSIBLE to close the deficit in one term. But in his rash decision to attempt so, has killed off the prospect of growth and jobs for years to come.

Still, I'm sure Osborne's 'private sector led recovery' will be along any day now. The first recovery in history without demand, without new jobs!