Salmond’s dangerous strategy

Sally Chatterjee

What proportion of the one trillion pounds of UK debt would Scotland assume on independence?

Mac

Another failed attempt to establish a myth, scare and smear by unionists. It may have worked in the past but it ceratinly doesn't work now.

James Forsyth ignores the fact that both David Cameron and Nick Clegg have already conceded that an independent Scotland would be a success economically.

For example;

UK debt stands at £1.4 Trillion. Known assets, £1.2 Trillion in North Sea gas and oil.

Scottish share of debt £120 Billion. Known assets, £1 Trillion in North Sea gas and oil.

The economic arguement has already been won. To say otherwise is to indulge in simplistic scaremongering that plays into the hands of Wee Eck.

Peninsula

I'll tell you what is really a dangerous strategy :

The relentless barrage of utter negativity and fearmongering which appears to be the unionists only strategy.

What's dangerous about being a 'foreigner'? Only a certain type of Brit would equate the word foreigner with fear.

Risible.

Publius

"when a Scotsman comes to London he’ll do so as a foreigner."

So what? The Irish manage well enough.

I must say, I find the spin and scare-tactics being thrown up against Scottish independence distasteful.

Russell

When hopefully Scotland gets Independence, Scotland won't 'share' English currency, unless the coalition government allow it, and I believe the majority of English would tell Salmond to get his own currency.

As for the Monarch, isn't Her Majesty Queen of the United Kingdom, which would no longer exist.

The scottish can have 'King' Alex, and take the large number of scottish MP's sitting in English constituencies with them.

Many have had a belly full of scottish labour MP's, whether from scottish constituencies or English constituencies.

Chris

At the moment the economic argument seems to be based on a velied threat to the Scots - you'll get the bill for.....moving Faslane, joining euro, Scottidh bank bailouts, your share of national debt.... This may win minds but is unlikely to win hearts. A referendum built on threats will probably keep to union together but engender huge resentment, so a pretty pyrrhic victory.

The emotional argument so far seems to be historical - 'look at all the things we achieved together we would never have achieved separately.' Again this may be true to is hardly a call to arms for the future.

I haven't obsessively followed all the articles and arguments but it does seem to me that there have been no compelling , positive and future-looking arguments posited for maintaining the Union in the future.

I'm happy to be persuaded, but the absence of the positive future vision suggests to me that it is a struggle to make. On that basis, I don't see history as a compelling reason to maintain an increasingly resentful and loveless marriage.

wrinkled weasel

"Do we really want to get into a situation where we become foreigners when we cross the Tweed?"

You already do. It's just that most people don't believe it. I have said it before and will say it again; Scotland is not England with funny accents and ginger hair. It has a measurably different culture and spirit.

Englanders who come to Scotland expecting everything to be the same are deluded.

I am English and have lived North of the Border for nearly ten years. I am proud to be English but not enough to want to go back to fortnightly bin collections, paid prescriptions, bridge tolls, local government that treats you as the enemy and cities where I am an ethnic minority.

Alex Salmond is a visionary and a patriot. Can you say the same about Cameron or Clegg?

Kernow Castellan

No response yet from Salmond on Spain's official concern that they registered last week.

Spain will never recognise Scotland (it has refused to recognise Kosovo), as it will give succour to the Basques.

TrevorsDen

Salmond ignores the historical context of Germany and of the United States.
The historical context of the UK is an independent Scotland. Quoting a dogs breakfast of 'devolution' is no argument.

Had Salmond chosen to join one of the national parties rather than a national one then he could aspire to be PM of the country that came out of the Act of Union. Thats our historical context and the actual benefit to the Scottish people.

Robin of Bagshot

Don't know about how dangerous he is but he is certainly full of piss and wind. One would search long and hard for any coherent statement by him on either a possible Scottish constitution or the structure of government in an independent Scotland, were that to occur.

justathought

You say independence can probably be defeated on economic grounds alone yet you have no evidence to support this. Those who know Salmond recognise that he has done his homework and has confidence in the economic benefits to Scotland, so much so that the issue is considered settled from their perspective.

Salmond has much to say in his piece and many in the rest of the UK would welcome free prescriptions, care at home and free tuition fees. The reality is that we cannot afford any such relief because we have such a high public debt. We are attracting welfare tourist faster than we can find jobs for our youth.

My opinion is that we get more from Scotland than we give despite all the phoney headlines. Scotland is a beautiful country with a wonderful culture and an abundance of natural resources and renewables.

It is frustrating that Scotland cannot lower its rate of corporation tax because the rest of the UK depends on high taxation. The Telegraph reported yesterday that private debt as a % of GDP has dropped from 103% to98% while our public debt has risen from 53% to 81%.

I hope for our sake that Scotland remains in the UK but to do so we must put forward meaningful arguments to persuade the Scottish rather than these personal attacks on Salmond.

Grimshaw

Sorry...what? This doesn't even fit together as an argument. What exactly is your point?

Bridget Hennessey

I'm afraid many Scots already feel like foreigners when they go to London, and English people should, and often do, realize they are foreigners when they go to Scotland. England and Scotland are already two separate countries even if they are governed by only one. My daughter who goes to a Dance conservatory in London (Scotland doesn't have one yet!) never felt so Scottish as when she got to London, never realized what a difference there is--not to mention trying to pay for groceries with a Scottish £20 note and being told she would only get £17 for it down here....!!
Everyone accepts the similarities between the two countries and cultures, but most people, especially English people are in denial of the differences. There ARE many differences. The union is like a marriage in which one partner has been dominated, controlled and lost their identity. And rather than being in a bad marriage, it would be so much better to be best friends. I so long for the day when I can whole-heartedly feel England is Scotland's ally.

Wily Trout

If Scotland gets independence surely that will bugger the Labour party - they won't ever have a majority in England and the SNP will have Scotland. What's not to like?

Bill Brinsmead

I suspect that Alex Salmond has reflected on the history of the Irish Free State which kept the monarchy - and Governor General until 1937 - and the £ for much longer.

In Alex's case he plans to keep them to mollify all the Unionists who vote SNP to thwart Scottish Labour. But it is just a tactic.

Perhaps he should be asked: For how long would an independent Scotland keep the monarchy and the £? I'd guess - but he will never concede it so - it is for as long as he thinks necessary to achieve and secure independence.

Sheumais

If Salmond has done his homework it would be a first. The only one of the three economies he wished an independent Scotland to emulate that isn't up to its eyes in debt is Norway and it, notably, is not a member of the EU. Salmond has declared he wishes an independent Scotland to remain within the EU, so I ask, again, quite where does that qualify as independence?

Mr Salmond was very enthusiastic about Ireland's lower Corporation Tax levels proving attractive to business, but ignores the reality that steps are being taken to standardise tax rates across the Eurozone, new members must adopt the Euro, he cannot rely upon automatic membership and who says those who might want an independent Scotland concede EU membership is mandatory? It may be necessary, but it is quite dishonest to claim you represent self-determination when you have no intention of ever delivering that.

Salmond doesn't do detail, which is why he so quickly resorts to personal insults when challenged. With the referendum apparently another 2.5 years away, just how much more does he think anyone wants to hear on this subject without any details and commitments to consider? He'll offer more bluster and posturing this evening and very little substance.

merlindragon

@Mac

You make thought provoking points; please would you share why you believe there's £1.2 trillion in gas and oil? I didn't think it was anything like that much.

Andrew

Someone above asks what the danger of being a foreigner is.

Ask the almost 1 million Scots living in the other parts of the UK, whose right to remain is at risk and become foreigners in their own country.

Less risky if Scotland can automatically continue in the EU, but nobody has full confidence in that claim anymore.

Publius

Andrew (3.05pm) writes:
"Someone above asks what the danger of being a foreigner is.
Ask the almost 1 million Scots living in the other parts of the UK, whose right to remain is at risk and become foreigners in their own country"

This is just more scare-tactics. There was absolutely no difficulty with the Irish and there would be none with the Scots if they opted for independence. Unless, that is, we chose to make a problem - and why would we?

And while I'm at it, I wish people would drop this nonsense about having to somehow or other gain permission to use the pound sterling. Any country can use whatever currency they choose. They just go ahead and do it.

michael

Salmond's one economic strategy .... Tax haven.
(And possibly a fat oil subsidy for relocation.
- Even as an Independent nation his main politically populist ideal remains 'bleed the English'.

Mac

North Sea known recoverable oil reserves in the UK sector currently stand at 24 billion barrels. The current price for a barrel of oil ~ $100. Doing the maths current value of UK oil reserves stands at £1.5 Trillion. Allowing for market volatility, a low of $80 per barrel, gives £1.2 Trillion for the UK. Scotland's share under international law ~ £1 Trillion.

Another example is defence spending. £3.5 billion is raised in taxes in Scotland for UK defence spending. What is actually spent in Scotland is £1.5 billion. Defence analysts have indicated a Scottish Defence Force spend would be about £2.2 billion.

Another example.

The Bank of England is a shared organisation and resource. England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland are all shareholders. All parties have a voice.

Another Example.

The £ is a tradable currency, just like the Euro and the $. The £ is also a shared currency between the nations of the UK. No rumpUK government could prevent an independent Scotland from trading in the £ as a national currency.

All these points have been conceded by unionist politicians and by Coalition ministers.

The scaremongering of old doesn't work on Scots anymore. The English are just letting themselves down if the believe all the 'subsidy junkie' rubbish spouted by journalists.

WetherspoonThree

All this negativity regarding Scottish independence. If the Scots need persuading that their future is in the Union then the argument is already lost. After all Westminster has already tried bribery and gerrymandering and these obviously haven't worked. The Scots remain sullen and ungrateful whilst the rest of us deeply resent the special treatment at our expense.

The rest of the UK should now embrace change and the opportunities that it offers. Lets us all plan for the future and encourage the Scots to seek their independent way in the world. There has never been a better time to go our separate ways. If the Czechs and the Slovaks managed to divorce it ought to be easy.

Frankly

With Reference to the Referendum:

http://tinyurl.com/82v9tbq

Rhoda Klapp

Must we go through all the srupid pink herrings again. They are irrelevant. Reasonable people can come to an arrangement over splitting the assets, joining the EU, whatever. The question is, what is the case for union. The real positive case, not a lot of stories designed to scare or hinder. The Scottish people, that is, the ones on the electoral roll in Scotland, can choose to go or stay. Devo max is a little more complicated, and needs to be described first. But I see no reason to delay any vote, or make it advisory. Are the Scots going to vote differently on some anniversary? Really? Just how trivial do they think this choice is?

Andrew

Publicis above suggests scare-tactics. However, as someone who certainly will be affected by this situation, I very much wish she was right. Sadly she is not.
When ireland separated, agreements on citizenship were made. This is not a given. It is entirely feasible of course, but has not yet happened. Indeed, the SNP's willingness to negotiate seems thus far to have been thrust aside in favour of bullish rhetoric.

The issue of citizenship is another of those answers consigned to the vacuum of the SNP's plan and until such time as clarity is forthcoming I for one cannot with good conscience, feel anything but gravely concerned.

The assumption that an independent Scotland would automatically enjoy any specific type of relationship with the UK or any other country or supra-national organisation, is extremely misleading and dangerous.

Colin

I'm assuming there would be a requirement to have a general election in the event of a vote for independence.

What makes Salmond and his fourth rate gang of crypto Marxist spivs think that an independent Scottish nation would want them to govern?

merlindragon

Thank you, Mac. I appreciate the detail.

Andrew

The case for the union or independence comes down to the details of how such and such would work and relate to the ordinary citizen.

In the case of the union, we all know how everything works. There is 300 years of demonstration. Some people, for largely ideological reasons, dislike the way it works, and this is why we are in this situation. Statistics and facts can always be moulded to suit the point of view.

In the case of independence, it is far harder. The situation doesn't exist and therefore the aforementioned important details are best-guesses or wishful thinking in the minds of its supporters. Even the historical evidence of pre-union Scotland is unlikely to help full these cavernous gaps. The words Darien Scheme probably don't appear in the SNP manifesto.

Are we convinced that the SNP understands Scots Law better than Lord Wallace; EU treaties better than the commission; British defence better than the Secretary of Defence; or international affairs better than a former UN SecGen. If so, we are probably happy for them to be dismissed as wrong by the SNP.

If not, we would be very sceptical and frightened by one political party that seemingly knows better than everyone on any given subject and wants control of a whole country.

Some may very well glibly say "scaremongering". If only that were true..

Tarka the Rotter

Well, I am English and I feel like a foreigner when I go to London - it's no longer my capital city but an international one...as for HMQ, if the Union dissolved she would revert to using the titles as used before 1707, i.e. Queen of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. She could upset M. Sarkozy by throwing in 'France' again, but that's just for fun.

Cynic

"At times the article reads like an argument for ‘devo max’, not independence." Of course it does; that's what Wee Eck would really like. It would mean that Scotland could duck all the nasty bits and still keep England footing the bill for their preferential treatment. That's why I'd like my country (England) back.

Angus McLellan

@Kernow Castellan: Spain? Right. That'll be the same Spain whose foreign minister denied the Sindy's story, calling it "rigurosamente falso" yesterday?

davvers

As a Scot I find that Alex Salmond is an embarrassment. He reminds me of Gordon Brown as another who would listen to nobody . I might consider voting for Independence for Scotland one day but the thought of Salmond as " Prime Minister" is terrifying.

THOMAS KNIGHT

On the topic of feeling a foreigner, I had to laugh at the irony, fresh from a visit home to Glasgow, of having a Scottish tenner refused in a Surrey petrol station trying to buy a paper. It was refused by a brown-skinned chap with an utterly impenetrable foreign accent (I assume from south Asia). Had I been so foolish as to try to discriminate against him, rather than the other way round, there would have been severe consequences. One country? I think not.

George Shepherd

It's going to be Devo max - everything else is just noise

We may as well all get prepared for it and figure out the best way for it to work

It's the most Cameron will give up and the least Salmond will accept

It'll be like a teenager leaving home with a trust (oil) fund - full of hope and optimism but needing to take responsibility

daniel maris

Yes, I have to agree with the critical comments here.

The Scots have not only gas and oil - but also hydro, wind, and wave. If global warming is really happening, their land must be becoming more and more productive.

Edward Sutherland

Many advocates of Scottish independence conclude their case with the mantra that once the split has taken place the two countries will be "the best of friends" and "good neighbours". It seems to me that if Scotland chooses the path of independence, as it is perfectly entitled to, relations thereafter should be characterised rather, in diplomatic parlance, as "correct" and "proper". If and when the split occurs, we shall go our separate ways,as has occurred with the Czechs and Slovaks, Croats and Serbs (but without the fighting!),Russians and Ukrainians and many more who have split on more or perhaps less amicable terms. I guess Scotland will join/remain in the EU as a sovereign state and perhaps leave NATO. But I very much hope the disappearance of the fifty or so Scottish Labour, Nationalist and Libdem MPs will mean an English,Welsh and Northern Ireland parliament will have to pay more regard to the electorate's wishes on matters relating to the EU and the ECHR.

Publius

Andrew writes above:
"Publicis above suggests scare-tactics. However, as someone who certainly will be affected by this situation, I very much wish she was right. Sadly she is not."

FYI, Publius is a he. Look, Andrew, unlike you I feel no strong emotion on the subject. I don't much mind what happens either way, except that I have a general bias in favour of small nations and self-determination -- which I think is inherently enobling and conducive to liberty properly understood.

But what I am tired of is the spin, scare-mongering and deliberate lies.

David Ossitt

justathought.

“My opinion is that we get more from Scotland than we give despite all the phoney headlines.”

You can opinion to your hearts content but the Scots do have a larger amount spent on them than do the rest of the UK.

Tell me justathought how can you justify the fact that any EU student can be educated at a Scots University without paying fees but not if you happen to be English.

I am not sure about the Welsh and the Northern Irish.

.

David Ossitt

I fervently hope that the Scottish referenda when it comes asks the two questions in/out, go/stay, or whatever wording that is clear but no way would I be happy with this devo-max question, with that Salmond would have all of the power much more of the money and no responsibility.

There has to be something in this for the English as well as for the Scots.

Axstane

Is there a chance that the techie people at the Speccie will sort out the difficulties in posting to these threads? This month? this year?

justathought

David Ossitt

The oil revenues and taxes paid by the Scottish more than compensate for any monies paid from the exchequer to the highlands. As others have said when you add in the natural resources and renewables Scotland will be the Dubai of the north!

Your query over fees for English students studying in Scotland was challenged in court and it was decided that it was perfectly legal.

Lucky for Salmond that Scotland is not attractive to welfare tourists from warmer climates but then we are told in England how lucky we are to have all these people!

David Lindsay

Scotland is already a beacon. But that is precisely because in Scotland, as in Wales and Northern Ireland, they still get to live somewhere that it is recognisably Britain. Whereas in England, we are the guinea pigs in the never-ending crazy experiments of the think tank schoolboys.

Free prescriptions, free eye and dental treatment, free hospital parking, free undergraduate tuition, free long term care in old age: these all point to Herbert Morrison's principle that all parts of the United Kingdom must benefit equally from social democracy, and to the fiercely Unionist Aneurin Bevan's famous "platform broad enough for all to stand upon".

Only the institutions of the United Kingdom can deliver them throughout what is currently the United Kingdom. If there were a proper Labour Party in this Parliament, then that would be a key plank of its platform.

daniel maris

I am presuming the canny Scots will be doing their sums and so a lot will depend on the oil price at the time of the referendum.

One thing that might affect the price -drive it down - is LENR, a new energy source recently announced officially by NASA. They have a patent for the new technology (aka by some as cold fusion).

Sandy Jamieson

".....no difficulty with the Irish...." (Publius) Obviously you've never been to Scotland in the last seventy years. The Rangers-Celtic hatred is based on the large number of Irish immigrants who came to Scotland in the last 100 years. The Parliament to its credit has tried to take on sectarianism but its rooted in so many Scottish instiutions, they have met very limited success.

Hexhamgeezer

According to Newsnight tonight, if the Scots voted for independence (please) they would have to reapply for entry to the EU and have to take the Euro.

If Devo max is to be put on the ballot it should be a UK-wide vote (IMO). Scotland surely cannot pick and choose their degree of seperation while we sit back and accept it.

Jon Stack

If independence means that apparently normal people can no longer turn up at weddings wearing a kilt without some sort of visa then I'm all in favour.

The financials are relatively easy to split up between countries, albeit after an argument, but how do you decide on nationality?

Nicholas

Can we please have Devo Max for England?

Scott

http://www.naciodigital.cat/noticia/39031/madrid/qualifica/ara/referendum/escoces/proc/intern/britanic

On the topic of Spain, the actual position of the Spanish government and the Spanish Foreign Minister (not Whitehall scaremongerers) is that the referendum on independence is an internal matter for the UK and that Scottish independence and the situation in Catalonia and the Basque Country are "completely different processes in which no parallels can be drawn". The story in British press was "strictly false".

michael

Wee-Eck's just a wind-up merchant, his whole 'independence popularity' strategy is based on getting people pissed off at each other.... Disengage, he's become see-through .

NickW

This is what Mac says;

"North Sea known recoverable oil reserves in the UK sector currently stand at 24 billion barrels. The current price for a barrel of oil ~ $100. Doing the maths current value of UK oil reserves stands at £1.5 Trillion. Allowing for market volatility, a low of $80 per barrel, gives £1.2 Trillion for the UK. Scotland's share under international law ~ £1 Trillion."

This is typical of SNP rhetoric; it does not stand close scrutiny.

The oil in the ground is not an asset until it has been successfully brought to the surface and transported to the point of sale.

It is therefore completely wrong to compare the gross value of oil reserves with Scotland's share of the national debt.

The cost of extracting the remaining oil from the North Sea is rising as reserves diminish. The profit to be had from the remaining oil is actually fairly small, and the oil companies will want some of it (in return for their massive investment) before Salmond confiscates it all.

Scotland's income from oil has to be limited to reasonable taxation of the profits after extraction. The gross value of the reserves is a red herring.