Uncertainty reigns in Syria
Daniel Korski 10:39am
The Syrian situation is worsening by the day. Now the Arab League has pulled back its monitors in recognition of their failure to ease the violence.
Foreign Secretary William Hague has said he is ‘deeply concerned,’ while the Gulf states are pushing for the whole mater to be referred to the UN Security Council.
But the chances of a ceasefire and the start of a transition are low. The Russian government is growing tired of Bashar al-Assad but does not want to condone any kind of intervention, which they think is likely if the matter is referred to the UN Security Council. Russia still regrets backing the Libya resolution, believing they were hoodwinked by the West into allowing a military intervention against Muammar Gaddafi. Besides, given his situation, Vladimir Putin probably isn't too keen on the idea of international backing for popular protests against authoritarian leaders elsewhere.
In addition, Syria also still has friends in Iraq and Iran, where the governments are supporting the Allawite regime both materially and financially. This will get harder in future, as Iraq faces its own problems and Iran suffers from the effect of new sanctions, but for now Syria's Shia neighbours can still prop up President Assad. Turkey, meanwhile, wants the regime to change but has very little leverage. Perhaps as a sign of their failure to push a transitional plan onto the Syrian government, a senior Turkish diplomat I spoke to was convinced that an intervention would happen but was adamant that Turkey would not lead it. Since Britain, the US and France are not about to do so it is hard to see who will fly the planes.
Yet while the means to push Assad do not exist now, the Syrian regime's days are numbered. The economy is in freefall, the state has collapsed and has been replaced by a thugocracy, and the rebels show no signs of giving up. Quite the opposite: despite being divided amongst themselves, the Syrian opposition is becoming increasingly militarised and emboldened. Ten years from now, an Assad will not rule Syria. Nor, probably, will an Allawite. But the road between now and 2022 will be an uncertain and blood-splattered one.
Previous
MaxSceptic
January 29th, 2012 11:38am Report this commentIn summary: you don't know what will happen in Syria but it is likely to be bloody awful.
The same can be said for 9 out of 10 Arab states....
One thing that can be said for certain: it won't be fun to be a Christian, Copt or Druze in Dar al-Islam....
David L
January 29th, 2012 12:09pm Report this commentThe end can't come soon enough for the Assad regime, but pity poor Syria. Like Iraq it is all set to become a proxy battle ground for the Shia Iran axis and their Sunni Arab enemies. Nasty times ahead.....
Nom de Dieu
January 29th, 2012 1:21pm Report this commentLet's face it, the Russians were hoodwinked by the circular logic of Libya; we must protect 'civilians', Gaddafi threatens civilians therefore we must keep bombing until Gaddafi has gone (sorry Sirte we had to destroy you to save you).
Where is plucky little Cameron now when it really counts? His ships and aircraft were sold to scrap metal dealers and foreign air forces for pennies and 20% of his soldiers are about to join the exciting and dynamic labour market in the UK.
Quelle horreur.
Austin Barry
January 29th, 2012 1:31pm Report this commentThe coming with Iran, projected by the Pentagon for May, but perhaps earlier (see Debkafile the Israeli intelligence website) will sort out Syria and not necessarily in the West's favour.
In readiness for the war, the US Navy has decided not to decommission one of its helicopter marine carriers, but to refit it as a floating base for SEAL special forces. USS Ponce will be tasked by the USN to supply deep penetration opportunities for its guys in the Gulf.
And who said Americans had no sense of irony?
daniel maris
January 29th, 2012 1:55pm Report this commentUSS Ponce? Ponce?!? What are they going to do - spray lavender water over the Iranians? (Not that was our lot in the rubber dinghy wasn't it?)
David Lindsay
January 29th, 2012 1:58pm Report this commentThree of the five Patriarchs of Antioch are seated at Damascus.
In order to join them in placing themselves at such proximity to major potential targets as to make any attack impossible, their brethren around the world should all make their way to that city: the heads of all the other autocephalous or autonomous Orthodox Churches, the heads of the other five Oriental Churches, and the heads of each of the other Eastern Catholic Churches.
But what of that other Patriarch in full communion with the Syrian Catholic, the Melkite and the Maronite, namely the Patriarch of the West, the Roman Pontiff, the Pope? Undoubtedly, he, too, should participate fully in this most urgently necessary protection against the destruction of an age-old integral part of Christendom by the same Islamists who have destroyed the one in Iraq.
AY
January 29th, 2012 2:07pm Report this commentUSA and NATO are preparing for threat of missiles that might be launched from Middle East at Europe, and terrorism that might follow - after
1) preemtive Israeli strike on Sinai
2) final defeat and disarmement of Hezbolla by IDF, regime change in Lebanon
3) fall of Assad, desintegration of Syria
4) final elimination of Gaza terror regime
5) taking out Iran's long-range missile and nuclear capabilities
or combinations of the above.
only an idiot might consider any of that not desirable. We'll wait and see.
Verity
January 29th, 2012 4:05pm Report this commentI hope they don't bomb Damascus. It is a lovely city. And the people, by and large, are courteous, kindly and humourous. Much like the indigenous British, in fact.
David Lindsay
January 29th, 2012 4:53pm Report this commentVerity, good to see you breaking with the same perennially anti-Christian factions and interests that are egging on and would assist this war as they egged on and assisted the war in Iraq; the horrific synthesis of Max Shachtman and Ayn Rand, of the Talmud and The Jefferson Bible.
Verity
January 29th, 2012 5:35pm Report this commentDavid Lindsay, As ever, I have no idea what you're talking about. And I don't follow Syria in the news. But they are agreeable people, courteous and pleasant, and they don't deserve to be dragged into some fundamentalist maelstrom. So far as I know, they don't even have oil. Leave them alone!
escapedRoger
January 29th, 2012 10:08pm Report this commentBa'ath secular regimes have been attacked ( and destroyed)by Islamic 'brotherhood groups and the culture of 2000 years is being destroyed, the west seems to be helping this: just for oil greed.
The House of Saud forbade christian soldiers from having Christmas while bombarding Baghdad, a city with an Anglican cathederal in 1990, complete madness.
Islam must be confronted for the humanity degrading evil that it is.
Back to top