A skewed response to a skewed question
Fraser Nelson 4:24pm
‘A clear majority of people in Scotland now back independence, according to an
exclusive poll for the Sunday Express. Using Alex Salmond’s preferred referendum question, the Vision Critical survey found 51 per cent would vote ‘yes’ with 39 per cent against.
If such a dramatic result were repeated in the autumn of 2014, the First Minister would have an absolute mandate to negotiate an end to the Union with England.’
So runs the story. CoffeeHousers may have spotted two of the snags: the poll uses Salmond’s laughably loaded question, and seems to have been conducted by a chain of opticians. Further inspection gives a sample size of around 2,000 people, yet only 183 of those people live in Scotland — making this little more than a straw poll. But it has still led Salmond to claim breakthrough, and that Cameron’s supposed intransigence is sending Scots running into his welcoming arms.
The serious opinion polls into the subject are collated by UK Polling Report here, and show how support for independence has oscillated between a quarter and a third in recent years — depending on the question, the number of options, etc. But no pollster has put a question as loaded as Salmond’s before, until this inadequate poll today. Perhaps we will see more scientific attempts in future.
My hunch is that Cameron’s intervention will not have helped Salmond. The idea that an independent Scotland would not be allowed to use Sterling knocked him for six, and the more one thinks about his idea of a Scottish Defence Force, the more ludicrous it becomes. The remedy to nationalism is to examine the question closely, and to ask: just what major Scottish problem does separation solve? I really can’t think of a single answer to that question.
To many Scots, the whole thing is a bit comic (the ballot paper mockup, above, is just one of the many circulating the internet). But there's a serious edge to it too. Scotland has the worst, most expensive poverty in the developed world. Foreign academics come to the east of Glasgow to study how a rich country can get social policy so wrong, inflicting such damage on a society and its people. The question is whether full self-government can yield the solutions that devolution patently hasn't. And the answer just has to be ‘no’ .



Previous






Voice of Reason
January 29th, 2012 4:42pm Report this comment"And the answer just has to be no." No back up to this assertion, in fact there's nothing in this article at all. Nowt. Nada. What a waste of virtual ink. I was going to say brain power, but on second thoughts I am glad I didn't. Here's a few few major Scottish problems solved you numpty: 1. Trident - get it to hell where it belongs. 2. No more Scottish soldiers dead for access to foreign oil reserves. 3. Oil fund for future generations. 4. No quasi-privatisation of NHS. 5. No more £2.4billion Scottish contribution to London vanity projects.
If you've nothing to say, get yer nose oot wir business. It has nothing to do with you.
Garve
January 29th, 2012 4:50pm Report this commentTwo points:
David Cameron didn't say that Scotland couldn't use Sterling. As a freely tradeable currency that's not within his power.
Scotland does indeed have some of the worst poverty and health problems in the western world. That's after 300 years of Westminster control - isn't it time to try something else?
David Ossitt
January 29th, 2012 4:50pm Report this commentCall his bluff Cameron should call a referenda for this coming Autumn, run by the Electoral Commission, with one clear question ‘Do you wish Scotland to remain as a member of the UK’ ‘Yes’ or ‘No’, with the whole of the UK eligible to vote.
The queer fellow would shit himself.
Swiss Bob
January 29th, 2012 4:54pm Report this commentGlasgow could certainly do without Labour. What's the life expectancy, similar to the DRC isn't it?
For all the cost benefit analysis (no surprise money is at the top of the list of issues :-) it is the politics that will decide it, and if this so called debate is really going to go on for years and years it may not be the Scots.
Doug Daniel
January 29th, 2012 4:56pm Report this comment"The question is whether full self-government can yield the solutions that devolution patently hasn't. And the answer just has to be ‘no’ ."
No, the question is "WHY is there still poverty EVEN AFTER devolution?" And the answer is "because the key powers still rest in London". Instead of trying to solve our social problems in the context of the union, why don't we just forget about the union and concentrate on what really matters - ridding ourselves of poverty.
We're one of the most resource-rich countries in the world, and yet 1 in 5 children are in poverty. But instead of using those resources to solve poverty, they're frittered away on weapons of mass destruction, public transport improvements in London, and an Olympics that none of us care about.
Jim
January 29th, 2012 4:59pm Report this commentThe snp again refuse to produce facts how independence will actually benefit the people, scaremongering and blaming the hated westminister for all that is bad is their way. Imagine republican rose on the lose in an independent country, we would all suffer.
Scotland will see common sense and vote NO
justathought
January 29th, 2012 5:06pm Report this commentI have just looked at todays Telegraph poll. It shows that 51.64% voted 'Yes' and 48.36% voted 'No'. In actual numbers that was 8220 voting yes and 7698 voting no out of a total votes cast of 15,918. This Telegraph result is almost identical to the Sunday Express poll which you deride.
What exactly do you mean by "Scotland has the worst, most expensive poverty in the developed world"?
I do not recognise the Scotland that you and others portray in such negative terms and find the opposite that it is a beautiful country with many attributes. Could it be that those being polled are being persuaded by Salmonds more positive campaign?
Forlornehope
January 29th, 2012 5:26pm Report this commentHere's a question. Under Devo-max, would the UK government underwrite the Scottish government debt? The alternative is that Scotland's debt would stand alone as for US States, or local authorities in most countries. In the latter case, what would be the rate of interest on Scottish Government bonds? Would these be a good investment at that rate? I'm only asking.
Steve Cass
January 29th, 2012 5:26pm Report this commentVoice of Reason - perhaps you should call yourself Voice of Zenophobia and Intolerance for that is all your contribution was.
All Scots are against Nuclear Weapons?
All Scots are aainst our involvment in Afghanisatan and Iraq?
Scotland hasn't benefitted financially from the Union over centuries?
Geez - zenophobia really does cloud your judgement doesn't it?
Forlornehope
January 29th, 2012 5:30pm Report this commentGarve, of course Scotland could use any currency it likes after independence. It's just that if you look at the history of such arrangements, they are inherently accident prone. Currency boards often look OK for a decade or two, then comes the default. Of course the Republic of Ireland's link to Sterling lasted decades but at the cost of continuing poverty.
Robin of Bagshot
January 29th, 2012 5:31pm Report this commentThe question posed by the SNP is, as has been convincingly argued, is a biased one.
Mr Salmond as he come across at present is simply a snake oil salesman, as given in Wikipedia..
"a travelling "doctor" with dubious credentials, selling fake medicines with boisterous marketing hype, often supported by pseudo-scientific evidence. To increase sales, an accomplice in the crowd (a shill) would often attest to the value of the product in an effort to provoke buying enthusiasm".
Voice of Reason and his shill pals of course are perfectly welcome to swallow the oil before jumping off the cliff, the height of which is unknown, with their eyes closed but none to take others with them. What is required is a detailed prospectus produced by the SNP which after scrutiny might enable us to decide whether it makes sense.
Kingstonian
January 29th, 2012 5:48pm Report this commentVoice of Reason
January 29th, 2012 4:42pm
If anyone ever wanted a demonstration of the veracity of P.G. Wodehouse's assertion about it not being difficult to tell the difference between a ray of sunshine and a Scotsman with a grievance, they only have to read your post.
cynicalHighlander
January 29th, 2012 5:53pm Report this comment I agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament.
I do not agree that there should be a Scottish Parliament.
I agree that a Scottish Parliament should have tax-varying powers.
I do not agree that a Scottish Parliament should have tax-varying powers.
Since those were the question back in 1997 no one of the colonialist parties can complain over fairness or any other spurious claim they wish to dream up.
EC
January 29th, 2012 6:12pm Report this comment"If such a dramatic result were repeated in the autumn of 2014, the First Minister would have an absolute mandate to negotiate an end to the Union with England."
Fraser,
Shouldn't the Scots know EXACTLY what's on offer BEFORE they vote in the referendum. Otherwise they'll only be voting for oily Salmond's 'wish list', and that is far from guaranteed to actually materialise.
The people of the Shetland Isles must be allowed to vote on their future too. Independence? UK? Norway? Scotland?
Fraser Nelson
January 29th, 2012 6:20pm Report this commentVoice of Reason, do tell: what major problem in Scotland would independence solve? And even if I was English living in London, this is about the future of Britain: it's about the country all of us live in.
Justathought, before The Spectator I was political editor of The Scotsman - and found that my undoubtedly beautiful motherland does contain (and incubate) the most appalling poverty in the developed world. The last investigation I conducted for the newspaper revealed that life expectancy was as low as 54 in a part of Glasgow. (A WHO survey later confirmed this). If you know of any parts of the developed world that have such appalling statistics, do share. I don't, and spent a long time looking.
daniel maris
January 29th, 2012 6:22pm Report this commentSurely the answer has to be "yes" - because an independent Scotland would have to address the poverty problem by itself -it couldn't offload the problem to the English and it could hardly do worse, could it?
Tom Pride
January 29th, 2012 6:46pm Report this commentI do wish that the strident, jingoistic Scots who pop up in the comments whenever the Independence issue is touched on would realise that their fight is with their own countrymen and not with the English. We are not to be consulted nor given the opportunity to express our view perhaps because the majority seem to be of the opinion that we go our separate ways.
You waste your time aiming your barbs or your assertions that paradise on earth awaits the Scots once free of English chains at us. Convince your own countrymen, please, and leave us alone to dwell on the horror that once again, you are going to lose, blame the English and then immediately re-start the whole whinging exercise all over again.
What’s the news on the Pandas?
Mark M
January 29th, 2012 7:11pm Report this comment"The question is whether full self-government can yield the solutions that devolution patently hasn't"
I don't know what I think about Scottish independence, but I do know that the status quo is failing those in the east of Glasgow, so using that to argue for its maintenance seems a little strange.
howard
January 29th, 2012 7:25pm Report this commentAs far as I'm concerned as an Englishman the Scots wanting independance are pushing against an open door.
Once a friendship goes sour there's only one way and if all the UK gets a vote then Scotland won't be leaving the UK, they'll be expelled.
David Ossitt
January 29th, 2012 7:26pm Report this commentVoice of Reason
Not much reason in your post is there?
And as for your silly “It has nothing to do with you”, it is not just the Scots who make up the UK, Northern Ireland, the Welsh and the English are all part and parcel, so it decidedly has something to do with all of the great majority of non Scots.
It will never happen, because unlike you most Scots are clever pragmatists and they will realise that we are in every way better together than apart.
What you must hope and pray for is that the English are not allowed a vote, because if they were they would probably send you all packing.
Cynic
January 29th, 2012 7:29pm Report this comment"The remedy to nationalism is to examine the question closely, and to ask: just what major Scottish problem does separation solve? I really can’t think of a single answer to that question." On the other hand, separation would solve a lot of English problems - not least the West Lothian question, the Barnett formula and the clear iniquity of having to pay tuition fees in Scotland while other EU states have the same free education as the Scots. Of course, we shan't be able to vote on it, shall we? No doubt we shall just be presented with the bill for a c*ck-up as poor as devolution turned out to be.
Cynic
January 29th, 2012 7:34pm Report this comment@cynicalHighlander I didn't get a vote in 1997. I reckon I'm entitled to complain about the dog's breakfast that was served up without consulting me. Not that I'm a colonialist.
Alan Forrest
January 29th, 2012 7:48pm Report this commentIn response to Fraser Nelson 29/1/12 6.10pm.
In defense of your two critics, I'll make the following points.
The problems Scottish independence could (not will) solve are many (let's not get into a list fight on this) and many new problems could spring up. Debate has matured in Scotland enough for voters to be comfortable that it's probably pretty evenly balanced, but we need to know more. An honest reporter can serve us all by making clear the pros and cons. An argument that predicts unremitting doom from a "yes" vote (or a "no") doesn't wash anymore North of the Border. And you'll find that the Glasgow mortality figures cut both ways in a debate about the Union Dividend.
In the other 3 UK countries (there are 4 countries in the UK) the debate on Scotland's position in the 21st Century is just starting up and hopefully within 2 years it too will reach the same level of synthesis found in Scotland. Perhaps the Spectator can lead the way...
Axstane
January 29th, 2012 7:50pm Report this commentJust this morning on the Beeb at about 10.10 I saw a Scot on a panel saying how good independence would be for Scotland because "Glasgow has the lowest life expectancy and the highest knife crime rate in the UK".
He failed to develop that argument by proving those are the fault of the Sassenachs or why those would be ameliorated underr Salmond's rule.
Herbert Thornton
January 29th, 2012 8:00pm Report this commentAfter reading a lot of the discussion - both in the Spectator and in other parts of the Media - I begin to think that the most interesting referendum of all would be one in England that put this question -
"Which do you prefer to have as your fellow countrymen -
1. Scots? or
2. Pakistanis?
Maggie
January 29th, 2012 8:06pm Report this commentAlex Salmond has introduced a new Law to make clear that only people who are guaranteed to vote Yes to In dependence will be allowed to vote.
davvers
January 29th, 2012 8:37pm Report this commentGuess where labour's Scottish power base is. Yup the parts of Glasgow mentioned .
James
January 29th, 2012 8:45pm Report this commentThe United Kingdom is responsible for the terrible health statistics in greater Glasgow. Perhaps an independent Scotland, with a greater concern for its own people, would improve those statistics?
James
January 29th, 2012 9:17pm Report this comment"what major problem in Scotland would independence solve?"
The democratic deficit. Scots haven't voted for the Tories in 40+ years but have had Tory government for more than half of that period.
andrew kerins
January 29th, 2012 9:56pm Report this commentJames
'The United Kingdom is responsible for the terrible health statistics in Greater Glasgow.'
Do you really believe that the people there and those they have elected locally have no responsibility for the poor health in the Greater Glasgow area ?
Ryan
January 29th, 2012 9:58pm Report this commentIronically, I think there's more chance in the English voting to get rid of Scotland, then the Scottish voting for independence. They (the Scottish) do seem like a very ungrateful bunch.
We must renegotiate the barnet formula following the rejection of the independence vote as a 'thank you', so English taxpayers stop subsidising the Scots.
Robin of Bagshot
January 29th, 2012 10:05pm Report this commentYour contributions Mr nelson are well made.
The Scottish Parliament has responsibility for the health service in Scotland, the SNP has been the ruling party in the Scottish Parliament for five years. I have not aware of a serious attempt by the SNP in the previous and current sessions of the Scottish Parliament in the past five years to address any of the major problems, including health matters, facing contemporary Scotland and it is not as if the Parliament lacks power and control over the health service, education, economic development and local government amongst others I have on the other hand heard lots of polemic and sloganeering about topics which are not especially relevant to life in Scotland as it is lived by many people.
Kevtheclaret
January 29th, 2012 10:10pm Report this commentNow I'm not being funny here but it'll be at least four years before this issue is sorted out. So with that in mind shouldn't all these political geniuses on both side of the border, whatever the take on Scottish independence, be sorting out this appalling blight of poverty instead of using it for political gain. just a thought like.
James
January 29th, 2012 10:25pm Report this commentI note that the Spectator isn't persisting with the "Spain would veto Scottish membership of the EU" lie since the Spanish foreign minister publicly denied it. Any more unsourced scare stories guys?
Malfleur
January 29th, 2012 10:31pm Report this commentFraser Nelson @ 6:20pm is correct; Great Britain is OUR country, all of us. The part of it called Scotland is as much my country as the part of it called Norfolk is Mr. Salmond's. A petty minority within Great Britain has less right to call for secession than did any of the Confederate States of the USA.
justathought
January 29th, 2012 11:02pm Report this commentFraser Nelson
January 29th, 2012 6:20pm
I can refer you to the ONS Life expectancy data released last June ( see also the Guardian data blog- Facts are sacred)
Ave Life expectancy;
Glasgow & Clyde 73.1
Hartlepool 75.4
Western Isles 73.5
Liverpool 74.4
Blackburn with Darwen Teaching 74.4
The one statistic you give for East Glasgow is appalling but it is exceptional and does not support your argument as this does not fairly reflect the picture throughout Scotland.
Everything I read about this debate tells me that journalists and politicians have been caught off guard by the slickness of the Salmond campaign. Telling the public that Scottish eat oats for breakfast and we feed them to our horses simply won't wash anymore!
Paul
January 29th, 2012 11:04pm Report this commentThe SNP have been in government, minority or otherwise, for the best part of 5 years now. Has there been any dramatic change to the social or economic issues facing Scotland? No.
What we are witnessing, in my opinion, is political expediency and possible 'ethnic entrepreneurship'.
"One should be particularly wary of taking the statements of nationalist or ethnic
leaders as reflecting a deep-rooted social demand, given what we know about ethnic entrepreneurship...The demand for self-government...has come largely from the political elite." (Keating, Ethnopolitics, Vol. 6, No. 4, 607–611, November 2007)
Hexhamgeezer
January 30th, 2012 12:35am Report this commentVote for independence lite (the best wee Al is offering) and keep your oil. You will need it. Leave the UK and legally you are obliged to re-apply for EU membership (wee Al doesn't want to leave that club). The terms of re-entry will insist on having the Euro as currency. Those oil revenues will then come in very handy (for Brussels).
Voice of Reason
January 30th, 2012 1:17am Report this commentStephen, dunno aboot Zenophobia (sic) clouding my judgement, but it certainly affects your spelling.
And Fraser and David, oh dear. Would you have supported Russia and CIS (rump USSR) getting a vote on Lithuanian independence? It affected them.
As I said, keep yer nose oot wir business. We are your colony no more. The days of Empire are finished. Thank God.
Fergus Pickering
January 30th, 2012 7:45am Report this commentVoice of reason, you are a typical Scottish twat, rude and ignorant and on the take.
Ian Walker
January 30th, 2012 9:12am Report this commentHo ho ho, look at the funny man dancing around in his kilt!
Economy? What economy?
Useful idiot supreme.
michael
January 30th, 2012 9:44am Report this commentDevious deceitful divisive and destabilising.
AS, as apparent in this debate, is turning divide and rule into an art form.
This pedlar of racial discord (monster ghetto-isation) Has been undone by his 'nose in the air' superiority complex.
-the currency debacle illustrates AS's arrogant thinking, or wilful and shameful lack of, wrt the rest of the UK.
Robin of Bagshot
January 30th, 2012 10:18am Report this commentVoice of Reason.
And here was I thinking the supporters of Scottish independence were without humour and never used irony. Once you get the jokes in your contributions they are quite amusing but rather too sophisticated for my taste.
Here is a small examination you might take in your idle moments. Please send all answers on a postcard to Gordon Lamb House, they could do with some laughter.
Scotland is similar to Lithuania in what ways? Discuss how this comparison has relevance to anything at all.
Define the expression, "wir business" and explain who might be included in "wir" and what is meant by "business"
When was Scotland a colony? Give the dates and a clear definition of the use of the word, "colony".
Fergus Pickering
January 30th, 2012 10:45am Report this commentVoice of Reason, I apologise for the puerile insults, I can't help myself because I'm a bit of an arse.
Ruairidh
January 30th, 2012 10:59am Report this commentVoice of Reason: You are a fool. Scotland joined the Union by choice. It has never been a colony, it is in a partnership. A partnership that has helped both countries enourmously along the decades. Using language like that just makes you look like a small minded racist.
David Ossitt
January 30th, 2012 12:56pm Report this commentVoice of Reason
“As I said, keep yer nose oot wir business. We are your colony no more. The days of Empire are finished. Thank God.”
As quite a few here have tried to point out; it will only be exclusively your business when and if Scotland breaks away from the rest of the UK.
If that sad day ever came; then I and I am sure many ‘Brits’ would shed a tear, not for ourselves but for the people of Scotland.
Scotland is not now nor has it ever been a colony; what it has been for over 300years is an equal member of a Union that has served the people of these islands very well.
I believe that the first minister is a not being honest with his fellow countrymen.
Fatbloke on tour
January 30th, 2012 1:27pm Report this commentTrevor @ 6.20
You really are a Weegie hater par excellence.
Tory - CheckPrivately educated - Check.
Ties with Salt 'n Sauce land - Check.
Trying to flog magazines to chinless wonders - Check.
Unable to tell the difference between the Gallowgate and London Road - Check.
Consequently you are not the person to comment on lives and loves of the Glasgow's East End.
Rab C
January 30th, 2012 1:33pm Report this commentNo, Scotland has never been a colony. However that doesn't stop a certain kind of English commentator from adopting colonial attitudes (not just to Scots but to the other non-English peoples in these islands). Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland cannot operate as equal partners because of the huge population imbalance (and consequent power imbalance) between England and the other constituent parts of the UK. This is probably the most important of several reasons why the UK has no future in its present form.
Tiberius
January 30th, 2012 1:38pm Report this commentSo we're getting to the point where the hatchets are being sharpened. are we?
I wonder how Salmond would feel if his attempt to replicate Brown's mentalism lead to a fatality?
R.G. Bargie
January 30th, 2012 4:52pm Report this comment"I have not aware of a serious attempt by the SNP in the previous and current sessions of the Scottish Parliament in the past five years to address any of the major problems, including health matters, facing contemporary Scotland"
So you've been in a coma, then? Scotland's biggest problem is booze, but the SNP's attempts to take serious action about it in the last Parliament was thwarted by the Unionist opposition. Now they have a majority, they're proceeding apace with the legislation.
R.G. Bargie
January 30th, 2012 4:54pm Report this comment"Leave the UK and legally you are obliged to re-apply for EU membership"
I am once again impressed at the expertise of Spectator readers, who are apparently able to cut through a legal maze which has defeated the attempts of the nation's most learned scholars in their search for a definitive answer to such a question. Do you have an email address so that we can direct them to you, some random tool on the internet, who knows for certain?
Amicus Alba
January 30th, 2012 6:04pm Report this commentThe Voice of Delusion and James are perhaps the most sycophantic, bigoted, inferior complexed nationalists that I've see for a while. As English posters have said this is about Scots -v- Scots and to infer blame on the English (using a pseudonym W/minister) and say that the state of Glasgow's health has anything with them show how twisted these guys are. The are an embarrassment to Scots but a credit to the SNP.
How ironic that that they feign health concerns when their messiah is as lardish as they come with a asda sized chin for storing nationalist paranoid victimhood.
Voice of Reason
January 30th, 2012 6:23pm Report this commentAch, I'm just trying to get through the day with a smile and a song. Interestingly, I don't think I made any anti-English comments at all. England is my second favourite country in the world, I was born in England, and I love the people North to South. Yet, the anti-Scottish bile from some of you is horrible. Here's my point: there is nothing anti-English in Scottish self-determination. Nothing. If you, as a proud English person see Scottish Independence as rejection of you then it is your problème de paranoļa.
Finally Fraser, one colossal problem that will be solved immediately on Independence is this: Scotland's will be governed by the government she votes for. Democracy, ye canny whack it.
Amicus Alba
January 30th, 2012 7:08pm Report this commentVoice of Delusion;
A Scottish answer to your socialist left wing nationalist diatribe;
1. Trident, or it's replacement, will be with us for many years to come regardless of the referenda result.
2. Don't speak for us soldiers. We do not support your nationalist divisive agenda. In fact we detest nationalism as you are diametrically opposed to us.
3. Diatribe. It will be used to pay for your socialist 'everything is free' agenda.
4. Spare us the "Privatization bad - Public sector goooood" garbage. Scotland manages our own NHS not Westminster.
5. Londoners don't pay taxes? Money robbed from Scotland only?
Amicus Alba
January 30th, 2012 9:42pm Report this commentNice try voice. You would've gathered that I'm a proud Scot Brit soldier.
R.G. Bargie
January 31st, 2012 12:56am Report this comment"Don't speak for us soldiers. We do not support your nationalist divisive agenda. In fact we detest nationalism"
How astonishingly arrogant that you would claim to speak for everyone in the British armed forces. Doubtless you will claim "Everyone I've spoken to thinks the same", neglecting that anyone of nationalist sympathies probably chooses to steer well clear of someone with your bigoted views.
Amicus Alba
January 31st, 2012 7:58am Report this commentBeing in the military for over 20 years you tend to pick up the culture and trend. Nationalists need to stop talking about dead Scottish soldiers as if we are a pawn in your nationalist cause.
Particularly from a party that wants to strip our military down to UN model of efficiency and a village Militia in size.
Herbert Thornton
February 4th, 2012 10:34pm Report this commentNo-one has responded to the question I asked (Jan 29th, 8:00pm). So I'll ask instead - Which would the Scots prefer to have as their future fellow countrymen -
1. English folk? or
2. Pakistanis?
In this case the response may be - "What kind of a choice is that? The real question should be - do we Scots want to have Pakistanis as our future fellow countrymen?"
Back to top