A Syrian Srebrenica?
Daniel Korski 12:36pm
Every day things are getting worse in Syria. Today the Syrian regime started what looks
like an all-out assault on the key city of Homs, reportedly killing at least 55 people. The attack took place as the UN Security Council
prepares to vote on a draft resolution backing an Arab call for President Bashar al-Assad to give up power.
The problem has been the lack of information about events on the ground. Though the Syrian government has failed to quell the uprising, it has succeeded in limiting access to information by the outside world. So a lot remains unknown, unreported or clouded in pro-regime propaganda.
But speaking to people in Syria, some things appear clear. First, there is now a guerrilla war of popular resistance against the Syrian regime. The idea of a ‘peaceful revolution’ is over. Second, there is still no coherent rebel leadership — no Syrian Free Army — but the resistance probably does have the potential to develop a locally-based leadership, as happened in eastern Libya. Until then, they are adopting Taliban-style tactics: working in small, self-supporting groups and using stolen and bartered weapons and IEDs to protect themselves against the regime’s onslaught. But they are still no match for the Syrian regime.
Finally, it seems inevitable — especially after the attack on Homs today — that a Syrian Srebrenica, a large scale government-led massacre, will happen. It seems only to be a matter of time. Once it does, the reluctance of the West — and even of Russia — to intervene will look increasingly unsustainable. David Cameron has wisely viewed Libya and Syria as different cases, requiring different responses. But the debate about intervention — or at least military aid to the rebels — will heat up again and the Prime Minister, who at heart is a sort of pragmatic interventionist, will be forced to review his Syria policy.
P.S. The estimate for the number of people killed in Homs has been revised down from earlier reports of at least 200.
P.P.S. The death toll is still unclear — the only figures are from Syrian opposition groups. The ‘Local
Coordination Committees’ now says 181 were killed in Homs, while the Syrian
Observatory for Human Rights says 217.
Previous
Publius
February 4th, 2012 1:14pm Report this commentKorski, isn't what's going on in Egypt or Tunisia enough to persuade you to stop interfering?
But no, of course it isn't.
Paul Hughes
February 4th, 2012 1:26pm Report this commentDidn't Turkey recently swear that they would not allow a repetition of the massacre of Homs? Let's hope that they prove as good as their word.
We have an opportunity to assist the rebels in Syria, thus depriving the Iranians of a Mediterranean ally. If it should simply be a case of sending them weapons we should do it. The Syrian regime evidently has very few friends in the Arab world. I don't think we can baulk at a humanitarian obligation now that the key opposing argument (appearing as crusaders) is evidently a non-starter.
We should act. Sarkozy could surely do with another boost to his ratings too.
Duyfken
February 4th, 2012 1:39pm Report this commentNo, it's not for us, "the West", to tackle the problem but the neighbouring Arab nations, which so far have not been seen as anywhere near as decisive and competent enough as befits the emergency.
Russell
February 4th, 2012 3:09pm Report this commentHas a new method of denying people access to comment has been introduced by the Spectator?
Comments are not put in a bin for review, maybe they are just binned without any moderation.
David Lindsay
February 4th, 2012 3:14pm Report this commentYes, in the sense of wild exaggeration and outright fabrication for Islamist propaganda purposes, aggressively put around by the anti-Christian fanatics of the neoconservative movement, and regurgitated by their cowed, credulous, bone idle courtiers in the media.
How many of Syria's Christians, Shi'ites, Alawaites, Druze and others will die if these "protestors" succeed? All of them, that's how many. That is why the neocons and the present Israeli Government want that success. There can never be too many dead Christians for them.
Ostrich (occasionally)
February 4th, 2012 3:27pm Report this commentTurkey's in NATO, right?
Wherein an attack on one is (allegedly) treated as an attack on all. Hmmm.
Publius
February 4th, 2012 3:57pm Report this commentDavid Lindsay writes:
"How many of Syria's Christians, Shi'ites, Alawaites, Druze and others will die if these "protestors" succeed?"
For once, David Lindsay, I agree with you.
And where will Korski be when all this happens? Long gone, busybodying on yet another "issue", along with the rest of the absurd BBC Twitterati.
Austin Barry
February 4th, 2012 4:27pm Report this commentThere are times, increasingly frequent, when one wants to shout at the Speccie: "Are you the New Statesman in disguise?"
Frank P
February 4th, 2012 4:29pm Report this commentBoris calls the shots on this one - and I don't mean Johnson, thank God.
Peter From Maidstone
February 4th, 2012 4:49pm Report this commentAustin there is no disguise, and there hasn't been for a long time.
Hexhamgeezer
February 4th, 2012 6:51pm Report this commentThis fight is essentially between the Assad organisation and the Islamists. Anyone else in the insurrection is mere flotsam that will be washed away regardless of who comes out on top (Assad btw).
None of our business.
Kingstonian
February 4th, 2012 10:31pm Report this commentAs always, no situation so dire that Patricia Shaw can't find an anti-Israeli element to throw on the fire.
Richard of Moscow
February 4th, 2012 11:42pm Report this comment"a Syrian Srebrenica, a large scale government-led massacre"
Fraser, why do you let this pervert pollute the Speccie site with this drivel? If he has any evidence that either the murder of thousands of Serbs around Srebrenica (or the subsequent murder of thousands of Moslems in the same area) were led by any "government" he should produce it at the ICTY in the Hague.
He has not and will not.
He is using the pages of an ilustrious magazine to prove to his EU masters what an obedient little BS merchant he is - and you're letting him.
David Lindsay
February 5th, 2012 1:02am Report this commentIf Homs is Srebrinica, then where will be Kravice?
It is now desperately necessary for the other two Patriarchs of Antioch to join the three seated at Damascus, there to form a human shield with all their Brother Patriarchs of their three Communions.
Including the Patriarch of the West, Benedict XVI. Blessed John Paul the Great should have taken up residence in Baghdad at this time in 2003.
Geoffrey Dron
February 5th, 2012 11:32am Report this commentThe descent of Syria into civil war and the unrest in Egypt accord an opportunity for Israel to engage in a pre-emptive strike against Hizbollah in advance of (next year's??) air strikes on Iran and the more general conflict in the Gulf. The West should adopt a Disraelian rather than Gladstonian approach to policy in relation to Syria and should do everything to ensure that Israel's elimination of Tehran's Lebanese ally proceeds to a conclusion rather than be blocked by UN pressure as in 2006.
The Syrian issue can be dealt with after Lebanon is back in the Western sphere of influence.
Erica Blair
February 5th, 2012 12:50pm Report this commentI don't remember Korski and his chums calling for intervention against the US when they besieged then flattened Falluja. In fact they cheered as the Americans used chemical weapons to burn Iraqis alive in their homes.
Sickening hypocrisy.
Meh
February 5th, 2012 1:35pm Report this commentI'm still waiting for the ICC to get round to investigating the destruction of Sirte. Might be a long wait.
anthony scholefield
February 5th, 2012 3:42pm Report this commentHundreds of thousands of Christians fled Iraq and chose -Syria -as a place of refuge. The despicable western governments are now trying to overthrow this sanctuary and there is a real possibility of a 1923 Smyrna.
Kennybhoy
February 5th, 2012 5:19pm Report this commentAm I barred from commenting on this thread?
Pot Head
February 5th, 2012 9:46pm Report this commentAt Srebrenica 8000 Muslims were killed by Christians.
Patricia Shaw
February 5th, 2012 10:12pm Report this commentAnother Example of Israeli interference in neighbours affairs.
Korski, deal with the Srebenica in Israel's back yard before giving us an Israel sponsorred opinon on Syria.
escapedRoger
February 6th, 2012 12:59am Report this commentOstrich.
NATO has had a bad track record on intervention, the only time the mutual defences clause has been invokes was September 2001 to help America (as if they needed much help)in Afghanistan. When Turkey, a member, fought Greece, another member, NATO sat on it's hands but America took Turkeys side because of its closeness to the USSR, who NATO was set up to fight against. If a member iniciates attack against a non-member NATO
Back to top