Putin's end
Daniel Korski 9:41am
This weekend, thousands of people defied the cold and the control in Moscow to show
their dislike for Vladimir Putin and what Russia has become under his leadership: corrupt, energy-reliant, centralised, and uncompetitive. It is now a country that must win externally because it
can't help but lose internally. ‘Post-BRIC’, as a new report has it.
My guess is that Putin will ‘win’ the presidential election, and will ensure that a sufficient number of counter-protests make it look as if he has more support than he actually has. That's exactly the kind of ‘virtual politics’ that Moscow excels at and which Ukraine expert Andrew Wilson has described so well in a book on the subject.
Once in office, Putin will either ‘do a Medvedev’ and pick people for a new administration, including the current president, which show he either understands people’s concerns; or ‘do a Rogozin’ and try to undercut the protests by moving people like former NATO ambassador Dimitri Rogozin closer to power, perhaps even making the ex-nationalist his Prime Minister.
But I don't think the Russian leader is likely to see out a full term. His ‘win’ will, even with the fraud that can be expected, be narrower than a few years ago. And the next parliamentary election will probably lead to a victory for the opposition. There is simply a limit to how many votes can be stolen and, by the time of the next election, the opposition will have overwhelming support in the country. The clash between the Duma and the President will then make the fight between Congress and the President in the United States look like child's play.
In the end, my money is on Putin being forced from power by a combination of popular pressure and parliamentary opposition. Like Hosni Mubarak, Ben Ali, and Abdullah Ali Saleh, all of whom were all-powerful, the Russian leader will probably over-reach, initially look like he will ride out the problems, but eventually suffer the indignity of a forced retirement. Like the other leaders, he too will believe — to the end and beyond — the opposition to be a foreign plot, so far removed has he now become to believe the protests can be anything else. A Russian version of the dolchstoßlegende may even emerge following his mid-term departure and could set the stage for a Putinist return. No matter what, the path to democracy in Russia will be a long one, but the protests this weekend were a milestone on that journey.
Previous
arnoldo87
February 6th, 2012 10:04am Report this commentIt's great to see Putin under pressure from a movement that was born from the denial of democracy in a country that has never properly experienced it.
It's even better that the protests come at precisely the moment that Russia's and China's true colours are exposed for all to see, following their veto at the United Nations in favour of the despicable Assad.
And it accentuates the fact that the United Nations is held prisoner by two dictatorships that wouldn't recognise a true democracy if it kicked them in the Urals.
So the next time that we hear a Lib-Dem politician piously claim that nothing can be done to help oppressed peoples without the approval of the U.N., we'll surely recognise it for the hypocritical bilge that it is.
Maggie
February 6th, 2012 11:04am Report this commentI'm by no means convinced that these demonstrations are spontaneous or representative. There are numerous Russian crooks in exile who are resolved to get rid of Putin by any means and replace him with someone more amenable to their business interests. The population of Russia is 143million. Not many of them are demonstrating.
Jeremy
February 6th, 2012 11:12am Report this comment@arnoldo87:
Great post. Spot on. Well done.
You too, Mr Korski. I do feel for the Russian people/opposition. It must be gut-wrenching to see their own government lining up behind the self-evidently vile Assad regime.
David L
February 6th, 2012 11:25am Report this commentI hope your prediction is right. There are many people who depend on Putin for their own selfish interests, who will therefore do his bidding, and many more who buy his paranoid view of Russia under attack by "Foreign plots".
All of which helps to explain his stance on Syria. He probably feels a deep spiritual bond with the Assad gang.
Tom Pride
February 6th, 2012 12:05pm Report this commentarnoldo87 – not often I can agree with every word. Well said – it shows up the flaw in Menzies Campbell’s obsequious submission to the higher morality and authority of the UN and “International Law”.
Erica Blair
February 6th, 2012 1:25pm Report this commentI see Korski is now lining up with the National Bolsheviks - strange bedfellows indeed.
ps Dismal Daniel has missed the fact that MI6 has admitted to spying in Russia (fake rock) and funding opposition groups. Something that would put you behind bars in the USA too.
David Lindsay
February 6th, 2012 4:53pm Report this commentTo be replaced with what, exactly?
Richard of Moscow
February 8th, 2012 7:37am Report this commentMaggie
February 6th, 2012 11:04am
"I'm by no means convinced that these demonstrations are spontaneous or representative."
According to those of all political persuasions, they are genuine, if highly organized. They are also representative, in that most of the anti-Putin demonstrators are the communists or nationalists - and all share Putin's contempt for the west. The western media coverage, however, is mostly limited to English-speaking, US/EU financed numpties - the "western-friendly" opposition. This lot put together are about as significant as the Green Party in the UK, but imbeciles like Korski don't know that, or anything else about Russia (I would love to know why Korski, and Arnaldo and jeremy above, have such strong opinions about a country of which they know nothing. They must even watch BBC news 24 without laughing)
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