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Monday, 13th February 2012

Will Germany let Greece stay in the euro?

James Forsyth 12:35pm

The German government is split on the biggest policy question of the day, according to the FT’s German edition. As Open Europe points out, the paper has a senior member of the CDU/CSU group in the Bundestag saying that finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble ‘supports the bankruptcy of Greece, Merkel wants to strictly avoid it… It goes back and forth, which is not very helpful.’

If true, this is a remarkable story. The British Foreign Office has been convinced since the beginning of the year that the Germans are keen to kick the Greeks out of the euro. Their conversations with the Germans have convinced them that Berlin believes that the presence of Mario Monti’s technocratic government in Italy and the new centre-right government in Spain means that this could be done without contagion spreading across the eurozone.

The next thing to watch for is how Germany reacts to the Greek parliament passing this latest austerity plan. If they start demanding more and more, then it will suggest that Schäuble is winning this internal German argument.

Filed under: Angela Merkel (91 more articles) , Euro (190 more articles) , Europe (754 more articles) , European Union (163 more articles) , Germany (146 more articles) , Greece (97 more articles) , Greek default (5 more articles)

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Liz Brown

February 13th, 2012 1:08pm Report this comment

Merkel wants Greece out but wants others to do the dirty work for her..........
I read elsewhere that Ollie Rehn says that the rioters in Greece are in the minority and most Greeks support the measures.....how does this unlected Belgian Commissioner think he a) knows how the Greeks feel and b) think he has the right to speak on their behalf?

Stephen S

February 13th, 2012 1:20pm Report this comment

There is no legal basis for the Germans to remove Greece from the Euro. They are trying to engineer Greece removing itself - but they can't force the issue. It is entirely feasible for the Greeks to default but remain within the Eurozone - I hope they do, and bring the whole house of cards down.

The economic price of Eurozone implosion is a price worth paying. THe sinister hand of the EU needs to be stopped now, before we all end up in slavery.

lebovier

February 13th, 2012 1:44pm Report this comment

I really can't see Greece being able to do anything that will convince the Germans they intend to keep their promises.
Short of (unasked) offering to physically shift the (untouched)gold reserves in the Bank of Greece to a vault in Frankfurt (or London if they want an uninterested honest broker (hahahah) to hold the collateral

exile on euro street

February 13th, 2012 1:44pm Report this comment

And the politicking continues: Horst Seehofer, the head of the CSU, wants the German people to have a referendum on saving the Euro. Talk of a referendum in Germany always causes a stir as German law doesn't allow for one.

telemachus'

February 13th, 2012 1:48pm Report this comment

If I were a greek I would imagine I were back in the 1940's.

Austin Barry

February 13th, 2012 2:19pm Report this comment

The following is a short list of Germany's WW II crimes in Greece, that our insensitive chums may wish to ponder as they put the hapless Hellenists to the fiscal sword for Germany's greater good:

Distomo massacre
Drakeia massacre
Massacre of Kalavryta
Razing of Kandanos
Holocaust of Kedros
Holocaust of Viannos
Kommeno
Massacre of Kondomari
Massacre of the Acqui Division
Mesovouno massacre
Paramythia executions
The Massacre of Chortiatis

The Oncoming Storm

February 13th, 2012 2:21pm Report this comment

Minor nitpick Liz, Rehn is Finnish. ;)

mongoose

February 13th, 2012 2:41pm Report this comment

Liz Brown: check your facts!
Olli Rehn is Finnish, and James Forsyth implies that Merkel wants Greece to stay in.

Max

February 13th, 2012 2:50pm Report this comment

Austin

So what's your point ?

Sir Graphus

February 13th, 2012 3:12pm Report this comment

If you're not Greek, telemachus, who is?

Austin, I hope you've inlcuded that one in Captain Corelli, too.

Peter From Maidstone

February 13th, 2012 3:33pm Report this comment

What would be the consequences of Greece leaving the Euro and defaulting on its debt? Unless a European country was going to invade to get its money back then surely it would be better off?

www.coffeehousewall.co.uk

Mr Danger 1

February 13th, 2012 3:43pm Report this comment

The idea that this is being done for Germany is silly. If Greece leaves the Euro and defaults on its debts it will still need austerity. There is simply no other option. Don't mention the war unless you are really at a loss for a better argument.

As for "leaving the Euro", this is not synonymous with default, even 'hard' default. The article, which is about a bailout, doesn't try to match its headline, which is about the Euro.

Austin Barry

February 13th, 2012 3:49pm Report this comment

Sir Graphus

Yes, massacre of the Acqui Division on Kefalonia. Mind you, this was the murder of approx. 5,000 surrendering Italian troops, so by pedantic German statistical analysis may not count as a war crime against Greece.

Liz Brown

February 13th, 2012 3:57pm Report this comment

@ The uncoming Storm & Mongoose - thanks for the correction re Rehn. However, I stand by my comments regarding Rehn......
@ Mongoose - because Nelson says kicking Greece out of the Euro is not Merkel's intention does not make it so - she doesn't want the blood to appear on her hands and requires others to do the deed for her and Schauble appears to be willing to do just that

dorothy wilson

February 13th, 2012 4:00pm Report this comment

Personally I am inclined to agree with Stephen S. However, for another slant on this see the interview with George Soros on www.spiegel.de/international/europe.

Steve Cass

February 13th, 2012 4:39pm Report this comment

Not sure why the markets have gone up on this Greek vote. It's one thing voting through these austerity measures, it's another actually implementing them.
The Greek people clearly aren't on the same wavelength as the politicians or the Germans, so it's going to end in tears come what may.

Ian C

February 13th, 2012 4:49pm Report this comment

As we all know, there is more chance of hell freezing over than the Greeks being able to meet whatever promises that are being squeezed out of them. The bits of paper they voted on last night are utterly worthless. And all know this. So what is the German game?

If they knew the answer to that then they would have sorted the EZ mess months ago. Denial is a river in Egypt. And the Germans can only be accused of pretending it's a game that can be played by them alone.

Mr Danger 1

February 13th, 2012 5:55pm Report this comment

If California goes bankrupt, will it have to leave the dollar?

Dadad

February 13th, 2012 7:29pm Report this comment

We must keep on hoping that the Greek people revolt utterly and bring the whole house of euro cards down, and that the Portugese and the others follow them.
This is the one and only way we are going to
get our own referendum.
Hague seems to have plenty of ideas about helping resistance fighters; perhaps we should ask him to help us ?

2trueblue

February 13th, 2012 8:47pm Report this comment

Germany is in it for the long haul and will fight to keep power, the Greeks will have to leave as there is no way back. The Greeks can not survive much longer in the euro, no matter what the Germans want. Germany is playing for time to ensure that the debts left by the Greek fallout will be spread out....... we have a fair share! Love the Germans.

escapedRoger

February 13th, 2012 9:26pm Report this comment

Dear Austin; as I hope you are aware, the Italian government surrendered yet the troops on Kephelonia fought their ex-allies as illegal combatants so were executed. I think it should only have been the officers shot, not all of them.

escapedRoger

February 13th, 2012 9:28pm Report this comment

Am I the only one who thinks Dr. Shauble is like Dr. Strangelove?

Peewit

February 14th, 2012 2:12am Report this comment

I think we should station some New Zealanders on Crete sharpish.

David Jenks

February 15th, 2012 2:15pm Report this comment

@Austin Barry

Your silly conflation of modern Germany with Nazi history is a sustitute for thought. It would disgrace a 6th-form debating society. What has happened is this: Greece has taken billions in gifts (not loans, gifts) from Germany. It has nevertheless managed to end up bankrupt. This is not least because the Greeks democratically elected spendthrifts to govern them, and themselves diddled their own nation out of tax. Now the Greeks, having thrown Germany's gifts into the sea for decades, want Germany to lend them more money which they are unlikely ever to repay. And, while doing so, they openly insult the Germans.

Athanassia

March 21st, 2012 10:06pm Report this comment

About David Jenk's comment: Dear David, you are not so well informed when you talk about gifts. Germany (together with France) happens to be the top seller of submarines, airfighters and weapons in general to Greece and Greece is and has been their No.1 customer... As for the gifts of Germans to Greeks, please bear in mind that the loan enforced by the Germans to the Greek people in 1941 (due to which hundreds of thousands died of famine) still remains unpaid, and we are talking about billions of Euros. Greece remains the only European country that has not yet been compensated by Germany, both for the loan and for the massacres and destructions during WWII... The Germans owe us, in fact. It is our worthless politicians in Greece of course, that are to blame for not having managed to get the loan money back so far, and for the whole situation of the Greek economy and the Greek State.

Niki

March 22nd, 2012 12:23pm Report this comment

Dear Athanassia, great comment, and unfortunately very true..

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