Cameron's risky move could play into Salmond’s hands
Hamish Macdonell 7:22pm
Not many politicians would conjure up the spectre of Alec Douglas-Home to scare the
Prime Minister, but that is exactly what Alex Salmond did today — to some effect.
The Scottish First Minister was responding to David Cameron’s ‘jam tomorrow’ offer to the Scottish people. ‘Vote “no” in the independence referendum,’ Mr Cameron effectively told Scots today in his latest attempt to make some progress in the independence debate, ‘And I’ll see that you get major new powers for the Scottish Parliament.’
It was one part bribery, one part political strategy and Mr Salmond was on to it quicker than the average Scot can order a haggis supper.
‘We’ve been here before in Scottish politics when famously Sir Alec Douglas Home in the 1979 referendum told the people of Scotland ... to vote “no” for a better deal,’ Mr Salmond said. Then he added: ‘Scotland actually voted “yes” but what happened then was 17 -18 years of no deal at all from a Conservative Government at Westminster. Now, I don’t think there would be any appetite whatever for Scotland to be presented with a false prospectus again.’
So, in a sense, Mr Salmond has decided to call Mr Cameron’s bluff. As far as the First Minister is concerned, the Prime Minister made the offer, he volunteered more powers for the Scottish Parliament today so Mr Salmond is within his rights to ask (as he did tonight) ‘where’s the beef?’ For his part, the Prime Minister has refused to say.
But the real question is where this leaves the battle over independence. To some, the Prime Minister’s move was a mistake. In offering yet more powers for Holyrood (at a time when the greater-devolution Scotland Bill is still progressing through Westminster) critics argue that Mr Cameron has ceded yet more ground to the Nationalists, ground that they didn’t have to relinquish at this stage. However, to others, the Prime Minister’s offer was smart because it was a way of trying to take ‘devo max’ off the agenda ahead of the referendum, something the unionists are desperate to do.
Whichever way it turns out, though, the move was undoubtedly a risky one. As Mr Salmond’s aides were quick to point out this evening, Mr Cameron has injected a new dynamic into the debate, a dynamic which allows them to put the UK Government on the spot.
Mr Cameron has effectively agreed to new powers and he will be pressed from now until the day of the referendum to explain what those powers are going to be. This issue may not seem all that important right now but it will next year when the SNP publishes its white paper on independence, the document which will set out exactly what Mr Salmond believes an independent Scotland will look like. At that stage, if Mr Cameron has not elaborated on his vague promise to hand over more powers, the argument will look distinctly one-sided and Mr Salmond will have the edge once again.
This is a plan which could work but only if, at some stage, Mr Cameron and his advisers put some flesh on it. Only when they come up with a coherent positive vision of Scotland with new powers and a new relationship with Westminster will they be able to start to counter the Nationalist arguments. And, so far as the Unionist camp is concerned, the sooner this happens, the better.
Previous
Enoch was Right
February 16th, 2012 7:56pm Report this commentI have a bad feeling about this. Cameron is completely out of his depth against Salmond.
Tiberius
February 16th, 2012 7:57pm Report this commentCameron's inheritance from New Labour is by definition full of risks and the devolution settlement is but one.
For England, I'd say that the most important thing at this stage was to keep the referendum question as "in or out", which Cameron has done. The supplementary question (to demand an increase in the flow of funding to Scotland) would have been a surrender.
toco
February 16th, 2012 7:59pm Report this commentHamish I think you are being a touch naive particularly as your fellow Scots are quite cute when it comes to financial matters.Alex Salmond will be seen to have been all puff and no real substance.Cameron is actually looking pretty genuine because without Scottish MPs his Party would have a permanent majority in Westminster.By the way does the average Scot really order a haggis with alacrity?
Fex Urbis
February 16th, 2012 8:01pm Report this commentOur Caledonian cousins will really know why Edinburgh is called the Athens of the North when they suddenly have responsibility for their excellent banks. Give us all a vote, let them go, the rest of us have simply had enough of them.
daniel maris
February 16th, 2012 8:04pm Report this commentIt's a fairly clever way of shifting the argument from independence to devolution.
But I have no idea how the smooth talking Etonians plays north of the Border.
Spog
February 16th, 2012 8:11pm Report this commentCameron comes across as weak by this. He needs to say that the Union is a privilege not an obligation, and give Scotland a choice - accept it or live with the consequences.
Fergus Pickering
February 16th, 2012 8:19pm Report this commentI don't think you understand. You Scots can have all the powers you want. Just stop taking our money.
telemachus'
February 16th, 2012 8:23pm Report this commentA clear analysis with nationalistic bias.
It was Cameron that put Salmond on the back foot for the first time in the debate. The PM so clearly set the agenda and precipitated what was clearly a rearguard action.
For once well done Dave.
Jeremy
February 16th, 2012 8:26pm Report this commentThe way I see it, Cameron is effectively offering the Scottish people "devo-max" in return for them voting to preserve the Union - something which he and many others believe to be in the interests of us all. The Scots are being encouraged to think not just about themselves, but about Britain as a whole, and about Britain's standing in the world.
Those who might not already have done so, can read the text of Mr Cameron's speech here:
http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/transcript-pm-scotland-speech/
Heartless Curmudgeon
February 16th, 2012 8:28pm Report this commentThe H2B - like his Hero in his heyday, - the present day epitome of style over substance - knoweth not whether he cometh, - or goeth.
Better he just went.
Nick
February 16th, 2012 8:32pm Report this commentThis is ridiculous. If Cameron came up with some suggestions for a devo max settlement Salmond (and it sounds like you) would just accuse him of dictating to Scotland.
It's up to Scotland to state what they want in devo max. All that Cameron has done is state that he is amenable to considering allow this to be discussed.
Colin
February 16th, 2012 8:33pm Report this commentYou are correct that Cameron provided Salmond with a few open goals today.
1. We'll consider devolving further powers after the referendum
In saying this he paints himself into a corner. He will have to put something significant - close to fiscal autonomy - on the table here. If he says no more, he is vacuous. If he offers more wishy washy Scotland bill type concessions (e.g. airguns, speed limits) he will push the DevoMax voter into the Independence camp.
He also has decapitated his Scottish Leader in Ruth Davidson, who has stated "Scotland Bill andn No Further" with regard to further devolution.
2. By talking of the risk to the Union of Scotland departing (Security Council seat, EU clout - seriously Dave?, NATO leadership) he allows Salmond to point out the difference between Unionist focus on prestige and the maintaining the image of global power, and Salmonds focus on the people of Scotland and their needs. With an electorate of Scottish voters - which option do you imagine wins there?
Nigel Rupert Snodgrass
February 16th, 2012 9:25pm Report this commentCameron visited a porridge factory when he was in Scotland. What next ? the shortbread factory ? or the Haggis factory ? The English do love patronising the natives.
Robin of Bagshot
February 16th, 2012 9:30pm Report this commentWhat Mr Cameron said was, "When the referendum on independence is over, I am open to looking at how the devolved settlement can be improved further." This is hardly "agreeing to new powers".
As for Mr Salmond, he might be more usefully employed in attempting to produce a clear and consistent explanation of what he means by independence and some detailed policy on what an independent SNP Scotland might look like rather than attempting to make schoolboy debating points.
Fergus Pickering
February 16th, 2012 9:43pm Report this commentI haven't taken my nightly medication, that's why I blew my top, please forgive me.
Downtown
February 16th, 2012 10:33pm Report this commentSalmond, While a charismatic and clver politician, still has nothing to offer but "the people of Scotland" presidential-style rhetoric mixed in with tactical ideas (currency etc) and lots of emotion and sentiment.
Nothing about the harsh economic realities of independence. Where is the money going to come from to pay all the public servants?
Axstane
February 16th, 2012 10:36pm Report this commentNigel Snot
Quite right - he should have visited a Scottish strawberry grower or a Scottish Temperance Society.
Jannie Geldenhuys
February 16th, 2012 10:45pm Report this commentCould Cameron please treat us to answer to the West Lothian question before he goes ceding more powers to Holyrood? It is a constitutional and democratic outrage.
Alan Hill
February 16th, 2012 10:55pm Report this commentJust have an 'in' or 'out' referendum and get the bloody thing over with.
Gawain
February 16th, 2012 10:59pm Report this commentThe suggestion that anything an English Tory says "might play into Salmond's hands" is now a hackneyed cliche. It's nothing more than SNP spin to avoid addressing any substantive issues.
Listening to Scottish commentators on the media today it strikes me that the Union is already dead. The level of commentary from the Nationalist tribe is low grade, relying on sweeping generalisation, blind faith and a childish hatred of the 'other' ie. the English (it makes me wonder what 'other' they will turn on when Scotland becomes independent). On the other side the Unionists are disunited, Scottish Labour tribalists just want to attack the Tories and dream of a socialist republic within the Union, a sort of gravy train max. I would hate to be Scottish. The choice seems to be between a loveless marriage with England in separate bedrooms or independence on unknown terms and unknown prospects totally reliant on promises from some very inexperienced and unimpressive politicians.
It looks to me as if Cameron has decided to spread soothing words about him whilst he pays out the rope. Alec Salmond may just find that his delight in "frustrating" the English is a noose around his and Scotland's neck. A cosy deal for dividing up the spoils on independence that suits the SNP may no longer be in the interests of England.
For the first time in my life I feel sorry for Scots, they deserve better than this film flam.
andrew kerins
February 16th, 2012 11:05pm Report this commentDefence of the Union means that, at some stage, unionists have to say; this far and no further. (This might be termed, calling the nationalist bluff.) Whether David Cameron is intelligent enough to see this and act on it remains to be seen. The evidence, so far, suggests that his desire to be liked will stop this happening.
2trueblue
February 16th, 2012 11:07pm Report this commentSalmond thinks that he is being very clever, but he will eventually have to state his case clearly. Frankly the sooner they have their independence the better. England needs her independence, and to be rid of the whinging Scots.
Peninsula
February 16th, 2012 11:25pm Report this commentDevo-Max is a red herring.
The SNP know that Westminster will never agree to negotiate on genuine FFA.
Therefore, it will be a simple Yes/No, but come the vote, this will be framed around the fact that London refused to negotiate on full fiscal autonomy.
The Scots will be fully aware of Westminster's intransigence in denying them the most popular option.
Scotland will also be suspicious that a No vote will amount to the Tories using this a mandate for no more change, maybe even a return of powers back to London
The Scots have already been bitten once by the Tories in a 'Jam Tomorrow' referendum offer. In 2014, everyone will know this.
This is why the Scots will vote Yes.
wrinkled weasel
February 16th, 2012 11:49pm Report this comment2trueblue
The Scots do not spend their time "whingeing". They are content to enjoy fresh air, weekly bin collections and frozen council taxes, free prescriptions and a distinct lack of the kind of nasty community relations you see in most major cities in England every day.
Stand on any street corner looking lost and within seconds someone will come up and ask you if you need directions. Down South they would walk over your dead body rather than engage with a stranger.
Try living up here for a while, it kind of grows on you.
pete-s
February 17th, 2012 12:54am Report this commentWhy is Cameron pandering to the scots, all they have ever shown is the more you offer them the more they will take. Also is Salmond so secure in scotland. If my only real choice was between corrupt labour and SNP who would bend over to get my vote; then the choice is a no brainer.
When the scots are given a stark choice between independent Scots SNP and financially backed Britain, I see a large amount of SNP support evaporate.
Herbert Thornton
February 17th, 2012 1:40am Report this commentWrinkled Weasel,
1. You don't need to go all the way up to Scotland to get away from the Southern English (and more especially London) attitude to strangers.
A few years ago I took a trip to to Britain that included both the south and my birthplace in Lancashire - and my experiences were just like you describe.
Sir Everard Digby
February 17th, 2012 7:28am Report this commentBut is the question about national identity or government?
I suspect that most Scots are not that bothered about being British or Scottish. I doubt any referendum on that question would get a yes vote as there is not much to gain from changing,nor sufficient ground to mount a campaign which would engage the poeple of Scotland.
If it's about government,then the Yes answer becomes more likely as people can see how that change might work.Holyrood vs Westminster has some interesting campaign ground in it.
A far bigger problem for me is about who would lead the no campaign from south of the border? Cameron ain't popular up North and Milliband is even less liked.
Plus Milliband's position on this is one of 'shared institutions' As usual,he fails to define it beyond quoting the NHS as an example - and that is already devolved.
I think Cameron is looking to make the battleground about government and not national identity. Offering a few carrots is a device to shift the argument there.
telemachus'
February 17th, 2012 8:23am Report this commentHerbert Thornton-Have you been to Liverpool?
Alison
February 17th, 2012 9:22am Report this commentHerbert Thornton and Wrinkled Weasel:
Just make sure that you're standing on this street corner in the daytime otherwise you might not find these northern paragons quite so friendly.
As someone who's been required to work late in both Glasgow and Manchester, I'm speaking from experience.
The crime rates suggest that these places are not quite as friendly as your smug northern prejudice implies.
Fergus Pickering
February 17th, 2012 9:44am Report this commentThere he is again, that drunken Scotch c*** pretending to be me. Back to your slum, cur, you are beginning to be annoying.
Nick Stonier
February 17th, 2012 1:13pm Report this commentGawain:
Brilliant post.
Fergus Pickering
February 17th, 2012 2:35pm Report this commentI apologise, I was half cut when I wrote my last comment. I've sobered up.
George Shepherd
February 17th, 2012 4:26pm Report this commentThe big surprise was that Cameron conceded Devo Max yesterday - an interesting movement in position vs a month ago - he is the real heir to Blair - willing to give in to anything just to remain popular and get a few good Daily Mail headlines -triangulation in action
Salmond couldn't believe his luck yesterday - he knows that Devo Max is the most he can realistically hope for and the SNP would do well in a Devo Max Holyrood
Fergus Pickering
February 18th, 2012 4:23am Report this commentWhy would Scotland do well in a devomax Holyrood? Its all a matter of money, as so often in arguments with the Scots. Perhaps my alter ego could answer this one.
Downtown
February 18th, 2012 10:53pm Report this commentGawain brilliant post - I agree with Nick Stonier.
The SNP shies away from any matters of substance, relying on emotion, sentiment and flim-flam.
I was in Edinburgh last week and a dozen various locals raised the independence issue, emphasising they didn't get involved in politics. All said they do not want independence. Very unscientific I know, but Wee Eck does not speak for all.
Back to top