Obama breaks clear
Jonathan Jones 6:48pm
The rejuvenation of Barack Obama’s re-election hopes continues apace. He’s
added seven points to his approval rating since November, improving it from the low 40s to around
50 per cent now. After months of polling neck-and-neck with Mitt Romney, he now
boasts a six point lead. Just four months ago, the bookies thought he was more likely to lose the election than win it. Now Intrade gives him a 60 per cent chance of victory.
Nate Silver has a great article on Obama’s chances in this week’s New York Times Magazine. He’s built a model to forecast the election results based on the three most important factors at this stage: Obama’s approval rating, his opponent’s ideology and economic growth. You can play with an interactive version of it here: just plug in your prediction for US GDP growth and see how likely each of the four Republican candidates is to beat Obama.
Setting growth at 2.5 per cent (the current forecast of the Wall Street Journal’s economics panel) makes Obama the 60-40 favourite against Romney. When Silver first launched his model back in November, and Obama’s approval rating was 43 per cent and growth was forecast at 2.3 per cent, it made Romney the 60-40 favourite.
And then, of course, there’s the possibility that Obama won’t be facing Romney in November at all, but rather a different Republican candidate — most likely Rick Santorum. The conventional wisdom has always been that Romney is the man with the best shot at beating Obama. But since Santorum’s recent surge, some polls have shown him doing slightly better against the President than Romney. This has led some to suggest that Romney might not have an electability edge after all.
But, as Nate Silver points out, head-to-head polling isn’t very reliable this far out from election day. A much better indicator of electability is a candidate’s ideology, which his forecasts do take into account. And that makes Santorum — further to the right than Romney — a far less troubling opponent for Obama. Silver’s model gives him just a 23 per cent chance of victory if he’s the nominee.
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Heartless C.
February 20th, 2012 8:14pm Report this commentShame.
Worse, that there appears no sound Republican candidate.
Right On
February 20th, 2012 8:40pm Report this commentMay be worth noting that polls publish 4 years ago gave John McCain 1 and 2 point leads - how'd that work out?
I guess we can look forward to constant guessing about the outcome of a hypothetical race 8 months before it happens.
Might just be me, but a made up formula and a suggestion that Santorum is further to the right than Romney isn't much in the way of analysis!
edlebanon
February 21st, 2012 3:23am Report this commentHe's a great President and the Americans are lucky to have him, a genuine heavyweight statesman. He makes David Cameron look like the manager of a local golf club.
Alexander
February 21st, 2012 4:49am Report this commentWorld War III
Those who won all battles shall lose the war.
Bilderberg Group and the crimes against humanity.
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.com/2012/02/world-war-iii.html
Drayner
February 21st, 2012 8:24am Report this commentToo bad for the US. Maybe a second term will give Obama the chance to bear witness to the exercise in "growing" the economy by 1.5% while adding hundreds of billions to their national debt. When that little bubble pops it's going to be quite a painful one.
RMH
February 21st, 2012 8:26am Report this commentWhere is Verity when you need her.....
Jez
February 21st, 2012 8:59am Report this commentIt's amazing what a heavily stacked liberal media can actually achieve.
john gerard
February 21st, 2012 9:47am Report this commentThe probability of Obama losing the election is zero. He will walk it. Talk of it being a fight to the last is deluded. He doesn't even need to bother turning up. Look what he's up against. A total cinch, even easier than the last one. The administration will pull out ALL the stops this year to support a weak economy. The stock market is going to do very well. The US Fed Res will carry on printing. The Republicans should just forget it, and concentrate on '16, because they don't stand a chance in hell.
Incredible, as he's the worst post-war president by far. And up against Carter, that's saying something. There's no need to pay any attention to the US election coverage, as the result has already been decided. Do something more interesting instead...
BenM_Kent
February 21st, 2012 1:02pm Report this commentAn Obama re-election would be good news for Americans and good news for the world.
If it sets off the destruction of current Republican Party and its ideology, and drags that Party back to Earth, so much the better.
Dani
February 21st, 2012 2:56pm Report this commentMay not be the best or most dynamic president but the world is a lot safer with him in charge than the recent batch of war chasing Republicans.
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