Another set of big poll leads for the Tories
James Forsyth 10:35am
Two new polls this morning show the Tories with massive leads over Labour. The Independent reports that the Tories were ahead 48-26 in the fieldwork for their poll which was carried out before Davis resignation but that dropped back to 41-26 after the shock announcement. However, as Anthony Wells notes the sample sizes involved are so small it is hard to draw any firm conclusions from this over whether Davis’ actions have hurt the party or not.
The YouGov poll for The Sunday Times which has the Tories on 47, Labour on 25 and the Liberal Democrats on 18 shows that Brown has no chance of recovery unless the economic outlook improves considerably. It finds that more than two thirds of voters blame Brown to some extent for the current economic troubles. 62 percent predict that the economy will either not grow or go into recession over the next 12 months. Brown and Darling trail Cameron and Osborne by twenty points on the question of who you trust more to raise your family standard’s of living.
Brownite hopes that victory on 42 days could be the beginning of a comeback are dashed by the news that only nine percent of voters say that Brown has been strengthened by the win while 45 percent think it has weakened him. The silver lining for Labour is that the Tories have yet to lock this down. Only 40 percent agree that the Tories are ready for government and only 35 percent are confident that the party would handle the country’s problems better than Labour.
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Mark
June 15th, 2008 11:21am Report this commentIf anything has hurt the Tories, it's not Davis' actions, but the reaction of the party to it. Instead of saying "it's a principled action which we support 100%" all they've done is talk about the internal politics.
Anytime I've talked to a non-politico about this people have had nothing but support for Davis. Get behind him. Fast.
Water
June 15th, 2008 11:39am Report this comment"On the performance of the party leaders, Gordon Brown recived another dire score, with a net rating of minus 62, one down from his record low last month. David Cameron’s net rating was at +37 from +33 last month, so no damage to his leadershuip yet from the Davis affair (though again - it’s still early)" staggering.
Alex
June 15th, 2008 1:19pm Report this commentI don't know why everyone here is panicking so much about how the DD affair will affect the Tories standing. "The man on the street" simply does not care. In a couple of months, the polls will be back to normal again.
Water
June 15th, 2008 1:28pm Report this comment"victory on 42 days could be the beginning of a comeback" only if he underestimates the power of the nations memory.
TGF UKIP
June 15th, 2008 4:43pm Report this commentA lot of this would seem to confirm that the Tory vote owes much to an anti government and even more an anti Brown sentiment. Your final sentence would certainly seem to reinforce this view, James.
What would be a most interesting comparison would be to see how Blair/Brown and Labour were polling on these points back in 95/96
Travis Bickle
June 15th, 2008 6:06pm Report this commentTGF UKIP
For once I agree with you. Did they really think the people wanted Blair (and a return to "socialism" (sic) ) in 1997? Anyone but Major, just as it will be anyone but Brown in 2010.
Silent Hunter
June 15th, 2008 6:13pm Report this commentMark is absolutely spot on!
The Tory MP's dragging their feet are doing far more damage to the Tory party - get behind DD, read the blogs people!!!!
Marcus
June 15th, 2008 6:29pm Report this commentGet a sense of perspective. 99% of voters don't care about the DD affair.
Most people are concerned about the poor state of the economy, health, education, our useless PM, high taxes, waste etc. etc. etc.
TomTom
June 15th, 2008 6:53pm Report this commentWell Marcus "most people" don't think any politicians can remedy the dire economy or society and simply stay away so the sampling is based on 60% turnout - David Davis makes even the 40% abstainers take note
DW
June 15th, 2008 7:07pm Report this commentQuite so, Marcus. And as long as the Lisbon treaty or petrol prices or whatever else knocks it off the top of the news running order, DD will be fighting for any coverage, esp if Labour don't stand against him.
Archie
June 16th, 2008 5:42am Report this commentEveryone seems to have missed the huge support DD is garnering on sundry blogs and fora. Cameron ignores this at his peril, I fancy!
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