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Friday, 20th June 2008

The Davis shuffle

James Forsyth 10:59am

Last night on Question Time, David Davis said:

"If I was given my job back, I think I'd take it - but I don't think I'll be offered it."

The general feeling in Tory circles is that David Cameron is not in any way obliged to reshuffle to bring Davis back in after he wins his by-election; a stint on the backbenches is the price that Davis pays for his stand. But things get interesting if Cameron is forced into a reshuffle. In these circumstances, the biggest question would be will Cameron bring Davis back?

This is a fascinating sub-text to the whole Caroline Spelman business. If this row about her nanny cum secretary ends up forcing her out, Cameron would have to bring in a replacement or shift his team around. Would Davis then be offered a chance to come back? If so, what job would he be offered and would he take it?

The answer to these questions is going to depend in large part on how the by-election plays out. If Davis comes back a much reduced figure, Cameron can probably afford to leave him outside the tent. But if he comes back as the head of a new movement then Cameron might decide that it is safer to have him inside.

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Steve Garner

June 20th, 2008 11:32am Report this comment

My best guess is that DC will leave DD on the backbenches until after the election and then bring him back, probably as Home Secretary.

David

June 20th, 2008 11:43am Report this comment

"If Davis comes back a much reduced figure, Cameron can probably afford to leave him outside the tent. But if he comes back as the head of a new movement then Cameron might decide that it is safer to have him inside."

Albert Shanker

June 20th, 2008 11:45am Report this comment

Davis has no chance of returning - based purely on the erratic manner in which he left his position of responsibility. How do you think Tony Blair would've acted here? If DC's emulation of TB is anything to go by - Davis coming back is very, very wishful thinking indeed.

Bishop Hill

June 20th, 2008 12:02pm Report this comment

I reckon Cameron will leave DD on the backbenches permenantly - Davis is a threat to the political classes of whom Cameron is the leader-elect.

London Calling

June 20th, 2008 12:29pm Report this comment

Shuffle, Shuffle
Shuffle the pack,
Take out the Middle
The front and the back.

The Queen is in mourning
The King is asleep
The Jacks are all fighting
Where the Goats slay the Sheep.

Hearts for the Minds
Clubs for the fist
Spades for the diggers
Diamonds for the figs.

The Aces are High
The Jokers are free
For the Oil and the Water
Shall not mix within thee.

Shuffle, Shuffle,
Shuffle the pack,
Restore The King,
The Queen and The Jack.

Verity

June 20th, 2008 1:12pm Report this comment

Cameron will have felt very threatened by what Mr Davis did. Cameron is a stranger to principle and would therefore fear it. He will not bring David Davis back.

David Davis, though, will becomea more powerful figure outside the Shadow Cabinet and will continue to be a threat to Cameron, who seems to have little appeal to the voters. The votes the Tories are getting in the polls are negative votes - in other words, people are voting against Brown.

But I don't think the voters want another principle-free prime minister. Tony Blair was enough for the next thousand years.

London Calling - I liked the poem!

CS

June 20th, 2008 1:14pm Report this comment

Wasn't to impressd with DD on QT last night. Think he's vulnerable to the question about why, if it's all about principle and the sanctity of Magna Carta (no relation to Maida Vale), did he vote for 28 days.

C

June 20th, 2008 3:39pm Report this comment

CS at 1.14pm He voted for 28 days (and persuaded the rest of the Parliamentary Party to do so) because otherwise it would have been 90 - there was insufficient support within the Tory ranks for keeping it at 14. You do what you can in Parliament

Robert Williams

June 20th, 2008 3:59pm Report this comment

CS "Wasn't to impressd with DD on QT last night." Quite so. I only heard his weak answer to the first question- on the economy - & I thought it a good thing that he hadn't won the leadership election. A one trick pony?

Hysteria

June 20th, 2008 4:41pm Report this comment

Robert - I guess I see where you are coming from - but on the other hand - do we expect everyone to have a firm grasp of everything? - there is something to be said for a person who has some principles and decides to act - they do not need to have all the detail in my view.

(Let's not open the debate whether DD is acting on principle or in self interest - I am just making the argument here!)

In a way (and I make no more specific comparison) this is akin to the Reagan effect - have some core values , and gather around you the policy wonks.

The alternative (lots of policy, but no values) is all around us, and we generally don't like it!

TGF UKIP

June 20th, 2008 4:45pm Report this comment

I would be not only very surprised but very disappointed if DD accepted any other job other than his old one. I'm sure an offer would be met with an answer along the lines of "feel I can serve the Party better from the backbenches where I will be able to speak out on a variety of issues." Excellent news for conservative Tories, bad, bad news for Cameron and his SocDems.

Nicholas

June 20th, 2008 6:40pm Report this comment

Re DD on QT. To be fair Dimble's interruptions and constant challenges when DD was trying to speak bordered on harassment. He didn't do that to the slimy and weasel-worded Benn. And Farage's vociferous attack on DD over the 28 days demonstrated one of the reasons that this truly rotten government continues - because the opposition parties are too busy bickering with each other to provide a consolidated and robust attack on the government.

It never fails to amaze me how the double standards of the media continue to be shamelessly displayed. Instead of ripping into Benn about not fielding a candidate Dimble was partisan in his attacks on DD and particularly for his vitriolic, BBC-spun misrepresentation of what DD's crusade is about.

Labour lie, spin and connive. The party line about the waste of council taxpayers money was trotted out, now part of the Labour and BBC script.

Kevyn Bodman

June 20th, 2008 6:51pm Report this comment

I agree with Verity.

I'm not really a Conservative but around the time of their leadership election I did spend some time with some Conservative Party members.
I suggested to them that if they wanted a leader with sound Conservative principles they should vote for DD.
I watched the TV appearances during the leadership election campaign and Cameron's appeal completely eluded me.
I was truly surprised that he won.
But I was so much younger then I'm older than that now.

As for Cameron's attitude to Davis, and vice versa, if you go into competition with someone, whether it's a race, a squash match, an election or anything else you learn something about both yourself and your opponent.
So Cameron and Davis each learned something about the other. And because of that,I suggest, DD didn't trust DC to be firm enough over civil liberties and that's why he resigned.And Cameron learned that DD is a stronger Conservative and to neutralise that he'll want him outside the inner policy circle.

More than a week after the event I'm still excited about DD's stand.
A weak answer on the economy on QT, so what?
I go with the Reagan analogy that Hysteria posted.

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