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Monday, 23rd June 2008

Can Brown avoid death by inflation?

Peter Hoskin 6:18pm

We've made the point before that Brown's fortunes are largely wedded to the state of the economy.  After all, he took all the credit for its buoyancy during his time as Chancellor.  So he seems to be the best candidate to take the blame now things have gone awry.

The worry for Team Brown is that things may be about to get a whole lot worse.  Over the past few days, the chatter from monetary policy makers has been of how both the private and public sectors need to show pay restraint in order to prevent a particularly vicious inflationary spiral.  Trouble is, many public sector workers don't exactly share the Treasury's worries.  Today some 600,000 council workers backed a strike over pay.

Of course, the Government has stood firm in the face of various pay demands this year.  But if industrial action on such a large scale goes ahead, then their resolve will be well-and-truly tested.  After all, it's when problems with the real economy spill over into day-to-day life that voters get truly disgruntled.  Nothing will quite ring the death knell for Labour like the sight of uncollected rubbish in the streets.

For Brown it seems like a lose-lose situation.  Give into the unions, and risk both appearing weak and worsening inflation.  Or reject the unions' demands, and face a Winter of Discontent.  Is there any way out?

Nick Robinson today highlighted a plan that "some close to the PM" are considering - namely, changing the Chancellor.  Myself, I'm not sure that even that would make a difference.  Darling may be a largely ineffectual figure, but that's half the point - the orders emanate from No.10 anyway. I doubt that would change even if a loyal Brownite such as Ed Balls were selected.  So why should we believe that a new chancellor will bring new thinking with them?  Why should we think that the inflationary timebomb will be defused?  CoffeeHousers, your thoughts please. 

For more coverage of the country's inflation concerns head over to Trading Floor.

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John Page

June 23rd, 2008 7:11pm Report this comment

Why would anyone take the job now unless they were burdened with stupidity and preposterous vanity, thinking they could make a difference?

Short the UK

June 23rd, 2008 7:26pm Report this comment

The political spining is just a distraction. Just bookmark housepricecrash.com and watch the dire news accumualate. If the property crash lasts two years then that is 'the' story.

Mike, Brighton

June 23rd, 2008 7:33pm Report this comment

Ed Balls would be insane to take the role of chancellor. Being on the sinking ship is one thing. Lashing yourself to the steering wheel next to the Captain whilst it is sinking is quite another

John

June 23rd, 2008 8:07pm Report this comment

"Why would anyone take the job now unless they were burdened with stupidity and preposterous vanity, thinking they could make a difference?"

Indeed. And ZanuLabour is chock-full of such people. The front bench is largely composed of them.

PuncturingPerry

June 23rd, 2008 8:08pm Report this comment

Huh! Death by deflation more like :

- of insufferably inflated ego,
- of contemptuously inflated faith in control ‘n freakery, and
- of inflated imaginings about his miraculous ‘economic’ powers.

Stuff the lot! We sure have been.

Chris Gilmour

June 23rd, 2008 8:26pm Report this comment

It'd take a new chancellor to be able to do stuff that the current mob have ruled out. Like whoever gets in next could cut fuel duty to that there's some parity with the rest of Europe. That'd improve goodwill with the populace, and bring down inflation by a wee fraction.

There's other wee bits of tinkering which can be done, it doesn't matter who does it, as long as its not the current encumbent.

Ian C

June 23rd, 2008 8:35pm Report this comment

Broon sacking the decent but hapless Chancellor would be one way of ensuring an enemy in the back benches.

And who would want the job anyway? Not even Balls is that stupid.

TomTom

June 23rd, 2008 8:47pm Report this comment

Darling is the new Tony Barber, a cipher for the First Lord of the Treasury.

Public sector workers should get their pay rises in return for losing their privileged pensions

Trumpeter Lanfried

June 23rd, 2008 8:56pm Report this comment

Can Brown avoid death by inflation?

No. It's how all Labour governments in my lifetime have ended. And I am very old.

Sean

June 23rd, 2008 10:11pm Report this comment

The scale of the problem is more than the Chancellor. Whether he goes or not is immaterial.

Nicholas

June 23rd, 2008 10:21pm Report this comment

I suppose that death by inflation is quite fitting for a balloon discharging copious amounts of hot air at PMQs.

Rex Burr

June 23rd, 2008 10:38pm Report this comment

Ed Balls more credible than Darling?
Where did that come from.
Another loudspeaker may change the sound of the song but not the words of the song.

Ann

June 24th, 2008 8:29am Report this comment

There's nobody among this lot. None of them have ever run a successful organisation of any size, and most of them have destroyed the ones they have run, of any size.

non-PC – or Progressive Perry

June 24th, 2008 8:48am Report this comment

“We've made the point before that Brown's fortunes are largely wedded to the state of the economy. After all, he took all the credit for its buoyancy during his time as Chancellor. So he seems to be the best candidate to take the blame now things have gone awry.”

Peter - this is nonsense!

Your circuits and programming are malfunctioning. Go back to your maintenance bay for sorting out.

The Beloved and Supreme Leader is independent of circumstance, time, or tide. He reigns supreme, and controls the waves. [Did he not quell the floods, and restore bounty to affected parts? – including personally drying out umpteen homes with his benevolent and warming breath?]

Also, he’s just sorted Oil, and increased production an’ stuff, like.

He will save the country, - and install a Thousand-Year, - oh wait a moment, - hadn’t better continue that sentence! It’s non-PC – or Progressive.

David C

June 24th, 2008 10:27am Report this comment

Would it really be vain or stupid to get rid of Brown?
I would think that knifing a failed leader who is both destroying the country and the party should be considered as a selfless act.
After its failures and lack of will became manifest, Leo Amery in 1940 stuck the knife into Chamberlain's Government with the words
"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!".

Is there anybody with enough courage to use Cromwell's quote against Brown?

Adam McNestrie

June 24th, 2008 10:46am Report this comment

One of the things that interests me about the current economic problems is the way in which they have been put to use by the now secularised, but still very powerful, Puritan conscience of the Britain. In this way of thinking about, and relating to what we have done, there is a sort of retributive justice written into the order of things: we were profligate and decadent, and now we are being chastened. The world becomes a sort of moral reformatory in which we are punished for our weakness and turpitude – perhaps even one in which we crave punishment. It amuses me still more because it’s written as a secular-theological account of the causes of the Credit Crunch and the Commodity bubble. A sort of commonsense causal explanation is given by commentators and ordinary people, resting on a kind of folk economics. They might be right for all I know, but without a sophisticated understanding of economics there is no way that they could possibly no that.

Read more of my views at my blog, Just who the hell are we? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/

Kaz

June 24th, 2008 8:35pm Report this comment

For God sake will the Labour party wake up and realise it is Brown that needs to go, not Darling. None so blind as them that will not see!

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