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Monday, 30th June 2008

Has the endgame already started?

James Forsyth 1:43pm

You won’t find many hacks better connected than Trevor Kavanagh so his column today is particularly noteworthy as it assumes that Gordon Brown being told to step down by some of those closest to him is inevitable:

The party won’t have him humiliated by a Cabinet coup, a stalking horse challenge or a showdown with “men in suits”.
But senior Labour figures want the issue sorted before the party conference in September.

So . . . who? Both pals and plotters believe there are just two options.
Either Gordon’s family — his wife, Sarah, or brother Andrew — will step in to save this proud man from further torture and urge him to fall on his sword.

Or a group of Cabinet ministers led by Straw will deliver an ultimatum: You go, Gordon . . . or we will.
“It has to be Sarah,” said a friend. “Nobody in this Cabinet has the balls to do it.”


I’ve been away for a few days and coming back it is all the more striking how the conversation on the left has moved onto the question of how Labour can prevent the Tories winning a two-term majority, they are all taking defeat for granted. There is much hope being staked, as Steve Richards notes, in Alan Johnson taking on a cross-government roll once this NHS review is done and limiting the damage. Others, though, are pinning their hopes on the Vicar of Bray turning assassin.   

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Ian C

June 30th, 2008 3:07pm Report this comment

This is rapidly becoming mainstream - when yesterday I was almost a lone voice.

Not if but when..... and by what means.

Faceless Bureaucrat

June 30th, 2008 3:23pm Report this comment

With the Trade Unions now in the ascendancy, Johnson would appear to be a 'shoo-in' for the Leadership. But if, as suggested, the Labour Party want this sorted by September, what happens to the school of thought that an Election would need to be called if Labour change their Leader yet again? Will that mean that the Labour Party Conference in September becomes a call to (Election) Arms? If so, are the Conservatives ready to respond?

Carly

June 30th, 2008 4:12pm Report this comment

What about Miliband? Is he still the 'favourite'? I think we should be told!

Verity

June 30th, 2008 4:12pm Report this comment

Ian C - I said it yesterday, as well. And I think many others felt it in their bones ... (including Gordon, one trusts).

Trumpeter Lanfried

June 30th, 2008 4:47pm Report this comment

I didn't know he had a brother, Andrew. He is mentioned, I see, as one of those who might have a quiet word with Gordon.

Quiet word: 'You will find a loaded revolver and a bottle of Scotch in the study.'

TrevorH

June 30th, 2008 5:24pm Report this comment

Brown has two brothers I think, and Andrew I believe works for an energy company pushing nuclear power which has had loads of govt contracts shovelled his way.

Chris Gilmour

June 30th, 2008 5:32pm Report this comment

If they change leaders, won't they have to have a general election shortly afterwards else repeat the mistakes of the past?

And won't that dump them out of office sooner rather than later?

Tel, Spain

June 30th, 2008 5:47pm Report this comment

What the Labour party should consider before getting rid of Brown:

- Can they afford it financially? Who will pay and what else could they have funded?
- Can they afford it politically? Some leadership contests help their party; some damage them.
- Coronation or contest? If a coronation, then who and how? If a contest, how and when to take out two months to hold it and what happens to the direction and discipline of the government and PLP in between?
- What happens if the next leader turns out to be as bad / worse? (Don’t laugh, it could happen).
- How is Brown going to handle being deposed and how can he be managed?
- Will dumping Brown and replacing him with A.N.Other simply ‘waste’ another leader if he/she leads them into opposition anyway?
- Is the problem just Brown, or is part or all of the whole concept of New Labour the problem? If part, which bits need addressing and is that consistent with keeping the rest?
- What does the Labour Party actually stand for?

tory girl

June 30th, 2008 5:47pm Report this comment

I agree with Chris Gilmore, surely they can't/won't inflict two unelected PMs in a row on the country? And they wouldn't dare hold an election in the autumn (would they?)

Carol-Ann

June 30th, 2008 5:50pm Report this comment

Gordon Brown is the best argument ever invented in favour of democracy. Had he been put to the vote, he would not now be Prime Minister - any vote, national, regional, within the Labour Party or any other.He was at -35 approval rating in September 2006. Labour were on a suicide mission appointing him as leader. The trouble is they’re now dragging the whole country down with them.

Joey

June 30th, 2008 5:54pm Report this comment

I can't see Labour MP's getting rid of him, they've not got the guts. The only thing to break the deadlock would be a significant number of donors coming forward saying they'll give some big donations conditional on change of leader now. The profit motive. Ah, capitalism at work in the Labour Party!

John, Cheshire

June 30th, 2008 5:55pm Report this comment

Wot about Blair? Maybe Brown would listen to him.....

oldtimer

June 30th, 2008 5:59pm Report this comment

Labour MPs no more want a General Election than turkeys will vote for Christmas. They will hang on to the bitter end - as will G Brown.

They cannot afford a General Election. Yet imposing yet another leader on us all without one will invite justified contempt from the political commentariate and the public at large. They all are in "hoping something will turn up" mode. And with just under two years to go, it is the best option they have. After all, what will they do for gainful employment once they are ejected from the HoC?

Pamela

June 30th, 2008 6:22pm Report this comment

I can't understand the argument of some Labour MP's that the voters will punish Labour if they change leader again. Voters are the main agitators for Brown's removal. At every turn, local elections, London Mayor, Crewe and Nantwich and now Henley the message has gone out 'if Brown were to lose/do badly he'll be toast'. Yet with malice afore thought voters have delivered worse than worse case scenario results for Labour. Surely MP's would be carrying out the voter's wishes.

Ian C

June 30th, 2008 6:23pm Report this comment

Chris Gilmour, yes is the answer to your question. But from Labour's point of view that is looking better now than up to 2 years into the future.

There is at least some hope that they can damage limit if they go soonest to the country.

They are now between the proverbial rock and the immoveable hard place.

It will do a huge amount for confidence and Cameron will have 18 months of maintaining most of Labour's programme while they get their radical thoughts together with full access to the books.

Dora

June 30th, 2008 6:28pm Report this comment

I actually feel sorry for Brown. What kind of country are we indulging in such a vicious witch hunt and delighting in someone's fall from grace. He is our Prime minister after all whether we like it or not.

TOM

June 30th, 2008 6:37pm Report this comment

Something has to be done and soon. Things cannot carry on as they are, it's destabilising the government and as result the country as well.

Tankus

June 30th, 2008 6:52pm Report this comment

keep him .!..and if there is any justice left in great Britain , the labour party will cease to exist after the next elections...

The idiots haven't quite sussed that they are not fighting for the next elections , but the very survival of their party ..

I hope its death throes are long winded,painfull , and personally , very expensive for the snouts....

no more swill at the taxpayers trough

Jessica

June 30th, 2008 6:58pm Report this comment

If Brown were forced out Labour would descend into civil war between the Miliband and Balls factions. Bad enough in opposition but in government fatal. However one thinks some sections of the party are relishing said impending civil war. They have been too restrained ever since Blair took over as leader of the party.

Tankus

June 30th, 2008 6:59pm Report this comment

“Nobody in this Cabinet has the balls to do it.”

should automatically count them out for the job "getting on the the job"..man for the job ", doing the job that's right.".... anyways ...

3rd raters ...!...all ...!

TGF UKIP

June 30th, 2008 7:43pm Report this comment

True it would be extremely difficult for them to change Leader again without having a GE. However, that Election need not be immediately held. Consider this scenario:

1) Gordon, under pressure, resigns

2) Cabinet agree on pro tem Leader (Straw?)

3) Pro tem Leader announces immediate election for Leadership of Labour Party and to be fair to new Leader announces simultaneously a GE for next June so that a new Cabinet and New Programme for government can be drawn up and presented to the electorate by the new PM.

Brazen yes, unlikely yes but they would find it virtually impossible to get away with no GE until 2010 and one this year would be suicidal madness.

The most likely, though, is that Gordon, Micawber like, hangs on counting on Cameron and his demons to do something daft enough to give him some breathing space.

Fergus Pickering

June 30th, 2008 7:44pm Report this comment

Dora. He is our Prime Minister and we don't like it. It's not the same as our King you know. The essence of our system is that we CAN get rid of the politicians we don't like. So we should continue to kick him until he takes the hint.

Augustus

June 30th, 2008 8:08pm Report this comment

Yes, isn't it funny that people like Polly 'tax the rich' Toynbee, who wanted Brown all along, now pour venom on him.

But endgame? No. I suspect that Brown will be gambling on any recession being shortlived, and things looking up again by the Spring of 2010. I think he will stay the course.

Ian C

June 30th, 2008 8:21pm Report this comment

Dora, he is not OUR PM. Noone has voted for him but for a toady Labour Party who were not even given a choice. And he is doing and has done a vast quantity of damage to this nation.

There is absolutely no room for sentiment and can be none in these circumstances. The sooner we are rid of him the sooner the country can get going again. It otherwise grinds to a halt as we all watch knowing that this part of the solution is available to us if we can but grasp it.

Trumpeter Lanfried

June 30th, 2008 8:26pm Report this comment

When Gordon goes, look forward to the Big Sulk. It will make Edward Heath look like Ken Dodd on a good night.

Rex Burr

June 30th, 2008 9:15pm Report this comment

If Gordon goes who will write Darling's scripts?

Silent Hunter

July 1st, 2008 12:22am Report this comment

Dora:

Get real!

Do you think Gordon gives a toss about the people from whom he stole their personal pensions.....or the poor, hammered by his 10p tax bribe to the middle class for the 'non election' he teased us all with?

Save your tears for the people he has shafted for the last 11 years.
He deserves all the opprobrium he is currently getting.

Paul B

July 1st, 2008 8:19am Report this comment

Quite right Silent Hunter, and to all the others. Dora, Brown is a volunteer, he wanted the job, like a junkie craves their next fix. Now hes overdosed on power and the country is suffering cold turkey as a result of his addiction. The man is weak and incompetent-yes incompetent, as PM and as Chancellor, despite those would claim differently. The only good thing he did imo was a no decision-not take as into the Euro- and he took that decision for negative reasons-ie he was too scared to take a decision.

No we want rid, and if it be a death a by many tiny wounds inflicted on this site and others, then so be it.

Dora-gird your loins and look away if necessary, cause its going to get worse.

Ian C

July 1st, 2008 8:52am Report this comment

Augustus, we all know how well Brown's gambles work for the rest of us.....!

Liz Brown

July 1st, 2008 11:05am Report this comment

Gordo has never fought an election in his life - he waited until a safe seat became available before standing as a Candidate. I've said it before and I say it again - he is a bully and a coward and those trends are coming back to haunt him. he is also psychologically flawed "Those whom the Gods seek to destroy they first make mad" is coming true.
Were Labour to foist another unelected Prime Minister ( and yes, I know we elect Leaders and NOT Prime Ministers_ then I think we really would have a rebellion on our hands. It would seem that an early elections is the only answer - but Labur will never willingly relinquish the perks and etcs

Verity

July 1st, 2008 2:13pm Report this comment

Trumpeter- I honestly laughed out loud!

Liz Brown says Brown is a bully and a coward and that about sums him up. He also has an eerie sense of entitlement, and I can't see why. I believe his family owns a good part of the small town he hails from and he may see himself as the young master, or something, which would account for his inexplicable air of entitlement.

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