What will happen now?

Harare, Zimbabwe

Post-election drama, Harare thrives once more. Market women back to selling vegetables on the street; businessmen in second-hand suits talking loudly into their mobile phones. Queues stretching round the block to use the cashpoint. The earnest business of survival begins for Zimbabweans once more.

A Zanu-PF source informed me earlier today that Mugabe allies are negotiating informally with the opposition MDC over a unity government. The sticking point, as always, is Mugabe. "When will the Old Man go?" chorus the urban masses. The South Africans are pressing hard for official negotiations. But is hard to see the MDC agreeing until violence against their supporters stops. "It is about leverage," said the source, a former Zanu PF politician. "Mugabe wants to let the MDC know that in the eventuality of negotiations he is still boss."

Retribution is ongoing in the north-east; there are reports of MDC members being made - after the poll - to attend the infamous pungwes, compulsory government indoctrination sessions. If they refuse they are beaten. But Zanu itself is increasingly divided. One of the less reported aspects of the three month terror campaign since the March 29 poll was the intra-Zanu violence - brainwashed 'Green Bomber' troops beating recalcitrant supporters. The future is increasingly fragile. The US and the EU are threatening trade sanctions. The foreign based mining companies - Mugabe's principal revenue stream - are under pressure to scale down their operations. Regional African leaders are fed up. Still Mugabe refuses to budge. But beneath the veneer of normality in the capital there is deep uncertainty. Go into any shabeen and amidst the low-sitting bar tables and bottles of Castle lager the talk is of what-will-happen-now?