Smoke and mirrors

Harare, Zimbabwe

It's smoke and mirrors for Zimbabweans. State-run TV has been blaring non-stop Mugabe's statement that he is willing to sit down and negotiate with the opposition MDC - and would even accept a "unity" government, whatever that means. Tsvangirai is holding his ground; the capital's more salubrious bars are a-buzz with speculation over an imminent deal brokered by the South Africans. The reality will be disappointing, I fear.

"The violence in the run-up to the poll and Mugabe's rushed inauguration was all about leverage," one Harare political analyst told me, a former government advisor. "In the event of any negotiations, he wants to show the MDC that he's still boss."

Retribution against opposition supporters is still continuing in Mashonaland East. So is intimidation against whites - as the beatings of Chegutu-based farmers Ben Freeth and Mike Campbell attest. Campbell has been instrumental in organizing the legal claims of dozens of destitute white farmers. He has taken Mugabe's land-reform programme to the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) court. A judgement is expected in Namibia later this month. For that reason, earlier this week, Mugabe's war veterans raided Campbell's farm, abducting him and his son-in-law Freeth, assaulting them and ditching their broken bodies on a nearby dirt road. "It was political - normally the war vets give you a warning. This time they just went in with violence," said a neighbour, who grows paprika in nearby Kadoma.

Mugabe, as older Zimbabweans will tell you after dinner when wine has dulled their critical senses, is a master tactician. He might negotiate with one hand whilst beating hapless rural dwellers with the other. There is unlikely to a be a quick fix to the country's slide. As we enter July, inflation has hit 10,000,000% according to some estimates; civil servants will soon demanding their salaries in the trillions of dollars; a currency re-issue is expected soon to chop nine zeros off increasingly surreal banknotes. 

"It was unlikely to be a short, sharp shock," said Ibo Mandaza, an ex-Zanu politician-turned-Mugabe-critic, over sadza and beef in Harare's cavernous Rainbow hotel (the old Sheraton). "A transition may be coming, but it will be long and drawn-out."