Why Brown will be cheering on the Tories in Glasgow East
Fraser Nelson 6:20pmDavid Cameron is heading up to Glasgow East on Monday to make a visit with Iain Duncan Smith – and they will be campaigning like mad. You may think they’d take their foot of the pedal and leave it to the Queen’s Own Cameron Highlanders (aka the Scottish National Party). But it suits the Tories better when Brown clings on. They want him wounded, but surviving. He is, after all, the Tories’ most powerful recruiting sergeant. Remember this is a 13,500 majority on a 30,900 turnout – ie, Labour had a stonking 61% of the vote last time and the SNP 17%. Cabinet members I have spoken to uniformly predict defeat, as do bookmakers. I disagree.
The SNP has two advantages. One is momentum. The other is superior intelligence on the ground. Glasgow East is one of the modern-day rotten boroughs where no one campaigns because Labour’s majority is so big – but even Labour doesn’t campaign, and doesn’t know the area. They key is identifying the few who vote. The SNP has sharpened its campaigning operation and its national research means it’s better placed to identify swing voters than the Tories in Glasgow East. (One trick, by the way, is to start campaigning at the very top of a tenement so you can run downstairs if things get ugly. If they chase you on the way up, you’re done for).
But my own guess is that Labour will win, with a vastly reduced majority because the SNP machine, while good, isn’t so good (or so prepared for urban battle) that it can turn around something of this scale. Glasgow East defies traditional campaigning norms. And I also think the Tories will hold their 7% voting share. Remember IDS has a track record and personal reputation here – he knows Easterhouse, the largest housing scheme in Glasgow East, and has spent more time talking about the problems in this constituency than perhaps anyone in
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Sugar Free
July 4th, 2008 7:32pmAgreed. In a way, I want Labour to hang on. It's difficult to see them winning anywhere if they cannot win the most red of constituencies. While Brown might be the most powerful recruiting sergeant for the Conservatives, it must be said, that in a place such as Glasgow East, Cameron and his 'tory toffs' may well be Brown's best hope of gaining some votes. Either way, Brown is a dead duck, and it’s just a case of crossing off the days until May 2010.
Incidentally, am I the only one who found great irony from the in the labourite on last night's Questiontime from Musselburgh, ranting about Cameron as an 'Eton toff' while wearing a Ralph Lauren polo with the huge polo player logo on the front. Hardly the sport of the working classes, is it?
incidentally, am I the only one who found great irony from the in the labourite on last night's questiontime from Musslebourgh, ranting about Cameron as an 'Eton toff' while wearing a ralph lauren polo with the huge polo player logo on the front. Hardly the sport of the working classes, is it?
Silent Hunter
July 4th, 2008 7:49pmSugar Free:
Are you always prone to repeating yourself?
OR do you just find yourself saying the same thing twice?
Either way..........I would seek help if I were you.
Labour MUST lose to save our freedom.
Jonathan M. Scott
July 4th, 2008 9:00pmThe majority of 13,500 in Glasgow East in 2005 (48.2% turnout) crumbled to a majority of less than 4,000 in the similar (slightly smaller) Glasgow Ballieston constituency in 2007's Scottish Parliamentary election:
Lab 9,141
SNP 5,207
Con 1,276
LD 1,060
Soc 588
This was a 38.9% turnout (17,000 votes) and Labour weren't doing as badly in the opinion polls in Scotland then.
It was before high fuel prices, high food prices etc, so anything could happen...
...and, although IDS has done good things in Easterhouse, the people there still wouldn't vote Tory no matter what.
Ray
July 4th, 2008 10:24pmFraser's anecdote about campaigning reminds me of similar advice I was offered about delivering election leaflets in gloomy tower blocks: do it fast and do it top down, not bottom up - that way some enraged local can't ambush you on your way back down!
TrevorH
July 4th, 2008 10:54pmThe point about the difficulty of the SNP winning is well made - but the corollary is important.
If Labour DO lose, then surely Brown is toast. A new leader must inevitably spark an general election presumably in the autumn and in such chaos there is every hope of a conservative victory despite a new leader bounce.
If the Tories can do well and keep Brown in (or even then maybe not) then thats good too.
Seems to me the Tories enter this campaign in a win - win situation. I hope they are suitably energised.
PS - last I heard Labour had not even selected a candidate yet. Bit of a change from Crewe.
Silent Hunter
July 4th, 2008 10:58pmI really think the Tories & Lib Dems should sit this one out.
They have no chance of winning there and an SNP win would still do massive damage to New Labour.
And if we value our freedom, then we must annihilate New Labour throughout the country by tactical voting.
Ian C
July 5th, 2008 12:01amNo Silent Hunter, if Brown is to go down in flames Cameron and the Tories have to be seen to be a part of his downfal. For if Labour lose you can count on a general election v.soon.
BrianSJ
July 5th, 2008 8:31amSilent Hunter/Ian C.
Truth on both sides here. In addition, if the Tories split the vote and let the Labour candidate (assuming they find one) win, they will not be forgiven.
Dan
July 5th, 2008 9:40amGlasgow East is a deprived area - but is, like much of Glasgow on the up - thanks largely to an excellent Labour Council and the regeneration cash available from central Government - the Tories and their Tartan mates in the SNP have no answers.
The Tories have been in power for a couple of months in London and yet the Conservative administration is crumbling. A sign of your incompetence.
Silent Hunter
July 5th, 2008 10:55amIan C:
And how would you feel the day after the election if Labour retain the seat by a stupidly narrow margin because the anti Labour vote has been split between the Tories, SNP and Lib Dems?
The Tories will have plenty of better opportunities before the next GE......I predict that there will be several other Labour MP's approaching retirement age and wanting to ring fence their generous pension plan by leaving as a sitting MP rather than as a defeated MP.
Red Jake
July 5th, 2008 11:01amMuch was made of Labour coming fifth in Henley - what's the chance of the Tories finishing fifth here?
John MacLeod
July 5th, 2008 11:54amHm, St Jude's Church. The patron saint of lost causes...
BrianSJ
July 5th, 2008 12:55pmRed Jake
- or Labour coming third?
Ian Campbell
July 5th, 2008 11:08pmIn belated reply Silent H, if Labour aree going to lose it is not because the Tories will affect it. But a loss by Labour means an election and if the Tories have not participated it will, perversely somehwat, reduce their credibility.
Silent Hunter
July 6th, 2008 4:58pmIan:
OK, that's a fair point, but I think that the hunger within the electorate to 'eradicate' New Labour should not be underestimated.
The Ray Lewis thing is playing like a disaster for the Tories if you believe the pro Labour media.
If however, you look at the Blogs.......you see a completely different and 'real' picture.
It is not harming the Tories anywhere near as much as the media hacks would have us believe.
Dan:
Is this the 'excellent Labour Council' who are having 11 of it's members investigated for fraud & corruption?
Why; Yes it is!
You can always spot a New Nasty Party prole a mile off! LOL