The hunt for Bin Laden
James Forsyth 6:37pmThe new issue of Time magazine has a couple of interesting pieces on the hunt for Osama bin Laden. The magazine reports that US counter-terrorism officials have decided that the way they are most likely to catch bin Laden—who some in the CIA think many only have months to lives because of kidney disease—is to catch some of the more junior members of the al Qaeda leadership. To that end, the Pentagon is seeking an executive order from President Bush which would expand the military’s authority to launch cross-border raids into Pakistan from Afghanistan. However, others in the Administration worry about the political effects such raid might have on Pakistan. One senior Pakistani official tells Time that:
"If they do a raid and they find No. 3 or No. 4 or No. 5 but don't get bin Laden, it's going to be a real problem".
The Federally Administered Tribal Areas in Pakistan are rapidly becoming the new Afghanistan, al Qaeda’s new base. Peter Bergen writes that Philip Mudd, a CIA veteran who is now with the FBI, says that "There is a very clear, almost mathematical increase in lethality as soon as plotters touch the FATA." This is, obviously, extremely worrying from a British perspective considering the links between British jihadism and Pakistan.
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Verity
July 5th, 2008 7:46pm Report this commentFar be it from me to try to second guess American intelligence, but surely bin Laden would have been treated for kidney disease in Saudi Arabia two or three years ago? If he needed a transplant, I cannot see any dainty considerations holding them back.
Tiberius
July 5th, 2008 7:59pm Report this commentYes, Verity. Some unsuspecting member of Saudi Arabia's public was found pissing in the wind and so had his kidney cut out under some directive of sharia law. Osama hopped on the next flight out of the Khyber Pass to Mecca for his date with salvation provided by kuffar medical technology.
Anan
July 5th, 2008 8:42pm Report this commentThe Afghan government is almost as incompetent as our own Labour one (Labour being the worse of course). Who cares what they think? Just go in there and get him.
Ruairidh
July 5th, 2008 9:13pm Report this commentI think this strategy is unlikely to work. While it is highly probable that a significant tranche of AQ's fighers and leadership, certainly some the more operationally active ones, are in Waziristan I doubt UBL or Zawahiri are amoung them. Waziristan is the new Afghanistan but it is not as secure as Afghanistan was pre 9/11. Back then the only danger was the occasional cruise missile strike and they were telegraphed in advance anyway. Waziristan has the Pakistani military and predator drones.
If the CIA ever get a location on UBL the Pakistanis would probably back the raid and are likely to want to front it for domestic reasons. A cross border raid without Pakistani approval would be a diplomatic and PR disaster.
steve
July 10th, 2008 1:32am Report this commentWhy haven't we got him yet if he really is responsible for 9/11 why do we procrastinate about picking him , maybe we have no backbone ? What say ye ?
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