Obama's most significant advantage
James Forsyth 8:48pm
What should keep the McCain campaign up at night is not Obama’s financial advantage or even his poll lead but his ability to command the news agenda almost at will. Two events in recent days have underlined what a potent tool this is going to be for Obama between now and November.
First, there is Obama’s coming tour of Europe and the Middle East. McCain has been on a couple of foreign tours and drawn some decent coverage. But now the Obama campaign is thinking about having their candidate deliver a speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate, the same place where Ronald Reagan delivered his justly famous ‘tear down this wall’ speech. The attention that this will receive will be off the charts and Obama will be able to parlay it to his political advantage. In the speech, Obama will probably throw in some warm words about Reagan as well as Kennedy, generating a whole slew of articles about him being ‘a new sort of Democrat’—regardless of the fact that his voting record is that of a fairly conventional Democrat. Columnists will agonise about whether he is the next Kennedy or Reagan. Second, after all these years of Bush being protested, seeing an American president receiving a rock-star reception is going to impress voters especially as Obama will refrain from saying anything that could be seen as winning applause through criticising the US; the sight of Germans waving the Stars and Stripes will reinforce Obama’s message that he can restore America’s lustre in the eyes of the world. Third, Obama will almost certainly call on the Europeans to step up to the plate in Afghanistan. This will allow his advisers to endlessly parrot the soundbite that ‘he went to Europe and told the Europeans they had to do more in Afghanistan and they listened.’
The other example of Obama’s ability to almost dictate the terms of his coverage is his decision to move his acceptance speech at the convention from the 17,000 seater hall to a 70,000 plus stadium. There’s little doubt that Obama will be able to fill the place and the sight is going to be mighty impressive; the Obama campaign will hope that it will set a bar that McCain cannot pass at the Republican convention the next week.
This advantage for Obama isn’t going to go away unless the McCain campaign can successfully bring him down from his pedestal, they have made some strong attacks so far but nothing has really stuck. The advantage this gives Obama is that whenever he has a bad few days of coverage, he can pull off an event—the largest rally of the campaign to date, his first appearance with Bill Clinton, a speech at Faneuil Hall—which he knows will put him back on the front page and plays to his strengths as an orator and a historic figure. This ability to turn the page whenever things get rough for him is one of the reasons that Hillary Clinton could never catch Obama after he got ahead.
PS If you haven’t watched Reagan and Kennedy’s famous Berlin speeches, do go and see a bit of them on YouTube--Reagan's speech is here and Kennedy's is at this link. They are examples of oratory at its best.
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Verity
July 7th, 2008 9:21pm Report this commentNewsflash - the Americans don't give a crap about what Europe thinks.
Further newsflash - the people who remember the Brandenburg gate speeches are not Obama voters. They tend to be young and naive idealistic. Not yet tested by life. In fact, seeing Europeans cheering Obama, and I'm sure rentamobs come a bit more expensive in Berlin,will worry a lot of Americans.
And don't forget, a lot of Americans who remember Kennedy regarded him and his family with absolute contempt.
TGF UKIP
July 7th, 2008 10:23pm Report this commentJames, correct me if I'm wrong, but I understand that Hillary has not yet released her delegates. And of course, why should she with the Convention not being right until the end of August.
I am still absolutely convinced there is something not quite kosher with Obama and I still expect something BIG. I guess, though, the question is increasingly becoming - will the media even choose to notice.
The one on ones and their formats might be crucial for McCain.
Verity
July 7th, 2008 10:54pm Report this commentTGI UKIP - You and me both. And a lot of my American friends. No one trusts this fellow.
Too bad that the non-birth certificate was a red herring. I had high hopes for that. But never mind, with Obama's murky past, something may turn up. I wonder how many more people he'll feel compelled to throw under the bus before November?
I would not be surprised if something comes out from somewhere that is not the US. Maybe Kenya. Of course, he can always throw those cousins under the bus, too.
A lot of people think something's going to come out.
James Forsyth
July 8th, 2008 12:05am Report this commentTGF: She has not released her delegates because if she does then she can;t carry on raising money to retire her campaign debt. But I'm sure she'd step in if required!
Verity
July 8th, 2008 12:51am Report this commentAnd isn't a Berlin speech just a wee bit passé? I mean, what the hell is the point?
Europe is rich. French farmers have the cutest, most picturesque farms ever,thanks to waterfalls of euros from other countries. The new jackboot of the EU is all over around 20 nations but the Americans see it as benign.
So what's Obama going to shout dramatically into a microphone in front of the Brandenburg Gate? Ich bin Ein Berliner? (I know that's the same mistake Kennedy made; a berliner is apparently a donut.) But, that has no resonance with anyone today. People are so over this.
He can't echo Ronald Reagan, because Reagan (and Britain) really did destroy the evil empire and he announced it there.
So what the hell is Obama going to say in his big moment at the Brandenburg Gate? "Change you can believe in!" in German? Yawn. Been done. Major.
The problem with this shallow, greedy man is, he has no ballast and no ideas. (See, "Change you can believe in.") So he needs props. The Brandenburg Gate will do. Looks good. Foreign. Background music: The Brandenburg Concerto. Obama, riding on other people's coat tails.
Scarey dude. My guess, won't get in. I just hope the Reps choose a charismatic candidate for VP.
DougS
July 8th, 2008 2:05am Report this commentHate to disappoint you (and me), but I don't think anything truly earth-shakingly bad is going to come out about Obama. What we have already is the meat we'll have to use to defeat him.
I'm very much a McCain supporter, and I think Obama can be beaten just given what's known about him personally and in terms of his record already. That, and (unfortunately) some latent racism that doesn't show up in polls.
He's an old style, tax and spend liberal with little or no experience, an extra dose of innocence and a history of some very bad judgment in terms of his associates.
This will be hammered home on so many fronts, but most especially if so-called "527s," i.e., independent organizations that can spend what they want, start up with a heavy rotation of tough TV commercials.
I think Obama is vulnerable, and Verity, you're right: Americans really don't care what Euros (or Brits, for that matter) think; most of us don't even think about it, aren't aware of it; and you're right that it can be a negative.
That's just the way it is when you're an American and you can scarcely get a handle on this huge, wild, bizarre, rich, full, enrapturing country of 300 million. It's not that we're insular, it's just that the U.S. is so many universes in and of itself.
Anyway . . . James is off on this one. Obama has some assets, for sure, and they include being able to an extent (at this point) command the media . . . but his impact in Euroville on Americans will be practically nil.
Mike Brannigan
July 8th, 2008 8:29am Report this commentI think we should be afraid of such massive rallies. All rhetoric and no substance.
thomas
July 8th, 2008 9:42am Report this comment"his ability to command the news agenda almost at will"
Why don't you just call it what it is: bias. He is the overwhelmingly liberal media's candidate who stands for nothing. Perfect for liberal creeps to fawn over.
It's no wonder Brits have taken to him; America for Brits is a world known only through tv where the usual stereotypes apply. A feral wild west where the poor rot while the oil barons get rich. Just remember how nauseating the papers were when the west wing was on tv. All we ever heard was smug 'joking' comments about what the TV president would do. Obama: the UK political class chooses the West Wing. The right barfs into a sickbag.
Verity
July 8th, 2008 3:54pm Report this commentDoug S - Inxplicably, the Brits, especially, who think they loom large in the thoughts of the American public - have absolutely no concept of how self-involved Americans are - for the reason you stated so well - there are so many universes right there at home.
I don't know how the British got this idea that America looks to them for opinions. I would guess that around 85% of adult Americans could not find the British Isles on an unmarked globe.
The only reason Obama is going to give a speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate is, his handlers have been trawling through the archives of what successful (I would argue that point re Kennedy) presidents did and try to tie Obama to their coattails in some way.
Nothing could be less relevant to today's America than a speech in front of the Brandenburg Gate. And the only people who will be vaguely interested in Britain and Europe are the lefty media. So it will play large in Europe but, so what?
OK, if you don't think there's anything major to come out about Obama (I don't agree; the fellow is hiding something), what do you think might come out that's minor? More information about Chicago?
I for one am intersted in the role Oprah Winfrey has played in all this, by the way.
PS - They really will need to book some rent-a-mobs for the Brandenberg Gate given that there's nothing for young Germans to feel passionately idealistic about since the Wall came down, and re-unification.
John Oldfield
July 19th, 2008 2:57pm Report this commentWhat a cynical twat you are Verity! But who can blame you given the lies-filled, smear-ridden, depthless nonesense that is politics in the USA.
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