The Tory lead is down but this poll might encourage Labour MPs to move against Brown
James Forsyth 9:48pm
Normally the news that the Tories had fallen and Labour had gained in the polls would be met with cheers in the Brown bunker but the latest Populus poll might actually hasten the Prime Minister’s exit. The poll shows that opinion has hardened against him and that at least some of the Tory’s new-found support is soft. The implication will not be lost on Labour MP in marginal seats: if they change leader they might just have a chance.
Brown’s personal numbers are, as Peter Riddell notes, incredibly bad. Only 25 percent of those polled think Brown is up to the job of being PM. Three fifths of those who voted Labour at the last general election think Brown is a loser with that fraction rising to three-quarters among the public as a whole. 67 percent of voters say Brown is weak rather than strong.
It is hard to imagine any party led by someone with these ratings winning a general election or even preventing the other side from gaining an overall majority. But the four percent fall in Tory support suggests that the Tories have yet to fully lock in the advantage they have gained in recent months. the poll lends weight to the argument often made by leading Blairites that David Cameron has yet to seal the deal and that Labour still has a chance to turn this round.
Yet considering Brown’s numbers it is almost impossible to conceive of Labour managing this with him at the helm. Labour MPs who have become dispirited and fatalistic in recent weeks might just look at this poll and see the beginnings of a plan for how they could save their own seats or at least prevent the Tories from gaining a two-term majority.
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Cynical Voter
July 7th, 2008 9:59pm Report this commentStill time for a Reichstag fire and Civil Contingencies Act
Cynical Voter
July 7th, 2008 10:00pm Report this commentStill time for a Reichstag fire and Civil Contingencies Act
Danniella
July 7th, 2008 10:33pm Report this commentIt is no wonder the Tory lead has dropped after all the sleaze and Johnson stuff last week. What is amazing is that it's only down 4%! I am a Cameron supporter and I hope he now gets a grip, clears out the deadwood and makes it absolutely impossible for Labour to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
TEL, SPAIN
July 7th, 2008 10:35pm Report this commentMiliband might find some B**LS and challenge Brown. Then again pigs migyt fly, not!
Stewart
July 7th, 2008 10:43pm Report this commentWith everyday that passes there is less and less chance that Labour will recover. The big events to come in 08 (Glasgow East, Conference) will determine their fate of course but each day that passes with the Conservatives well up in the polls is a nail in the large coffin of New Labour.
Patrick
July 8th, 2008 7:22am Report this commentIs the photograph of a tearful Leader leaving 10 Downing Street after being knifed by Party Supporters a rare glimpse of the future?
Or just wishful thinking?
Old Hack
July 8th, 2008 8:34am Report this commentSome of the comments that Milliband made in South Afroca were almost statesmanlike.
Almost.
John
July 8th, 2008 9:24am Report this commentSorry if anyone is living in hope that Labour has a chance. IMO, they s*** if they do and s*** if they don't. Sticking with Pinnochio is suicidal, but replacing him after such a short time is suicidal also. The public will simply laugh at them.
Mike, Brighton
July 8th, 2008 9:47am Report this commentHarriet Harman is on manoeuvres as Hazel Blears cryptically calls for someone to have "courage" and depose Brown...if I was Brown I'd get my security guys to check out the cheerleader plane very carefully before flying back to London
DM
July 8th, 2008 10:03am Report this commentPatrick - You think Brown would leave by the front door?! He's the sort that sneaks out the back.
David
July 8th, 2008 10:31am Report this commentWhether the poll is accurate or not - and I personally believe it to be a slight rogue - the fact is that yesterday David Cameron spoke about social breakdown and crime, while Gordon Brown told us we are responsible for the piss poor state of the economy. And why? Because we buy too many apples and bottles of milk.
Patrick
July 8th, 2008 10:53am Report this commentDM You are correct! He mostly uses the back door.
JONNY
July 8th, 2008 12:58pm Report this commentI expect Brown to hold the Glasgow seat (good news for the Tories actually). Then comes the summer recess. Followed by a strong Brown Conference rant. After that the faint hearts should just carry it - because it's all too late late late.
Mike, Brighton
July 8th, 2008 1:21pm Report this commentJONNY - agreed. If Brown is to be deposed basically it has to happen now or over the Summer i.e. very soon. If we get to Autumn it's too late.
The games up....
Allen Williams
July 8th, 2008 2:35pm Report this commentI think it most unlikely that Brown will be deposed by the craven louts posing as labour ministers, after all, who among them would want to take over this rump of a government at this stage? It is possible that Brown will go for health reasons, he is obviously a psychological basket case on the brink of a complete breakdown, but if that happens can you imagine the buttock shuffling and foot dragging that will go on as everybody desperately tries to hang back and not be noticed. It would be a wonderful spectacle to behold, but it is more likely that Brown will limp on to electoral defeat and political oblivion and the surviving labour scum bags will try to regroup from the opposition benches
D. Short
July 8th, 2008 3:16pm Report this commentThis minutiae reporting and obsession about British politics seems to be vulgarising The Spectator.
I seem to remember a very successful weekly being vulgarised back in the Eighties.
I am sure there was and is a familiar vulgariser in charge!
Frank Pulley
July 8th, 2008 10:43pm Report this commentThe MSM will not let their campaign to oust Brown run out of steam. How can they? There aren't enough hens in the world to produce that much egg on so many faces. However, the punters are a funny lot and if the hacks overplay their hand the underdog syndrome may click in ... the British do warm to a whipped, whimpering recoiling cur - moreso one with distemper and a wonky eye. So watch it!
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