Brogan: Brown should not beware Glasgow East but September
James Forsyth 2:42pmOver on his blog, Ben Brogan dissents from the conventional Westminster wisdom that Glasgow East is make or break for Brown, arguing that the polls post-conference will be more important:
But even if Labour do lose - and I don't think they will (gulp) - I'm not so sure it will trigger the kind of armaggedon folk are predicting. For why? Because things are bad enough already. A wild result in a Scottish seat is unlikely to tell us something we don't already know: Gordon Brown is in trouble everywhere, even at home. But Scottish politics is different and the SNP are not the Tories. Labour MPs, those that haven't already disappeared on holiday, may just shrug. No, as much as it would be nice to imagine a summer meltdown at the national policy forum that weekend, I reckon the tough time will be those dead weeks of September before the conferences. Folk will be back from holidays, galvanised by sun and sancerre. They may be tempted to stir things up (remember how September 2006 did for Tony Blair). Then there are the conferences, and the crucial weekend after the Tory bash. Will the polls show the Tory lead pulled back to manageable levels - say 10pts - after a Brown barnstormer? Or will the Tories cap an extraordinary year by emerging from their gig 35pts ahead? That's when the phones will hum, regardless of whether Mr Brown wins or loses Glasgow East.
Conferences can change a lot of things, remember how much pressure Cameron was under coming into last year’s Tory conference. But the result in Glasgow East is going to play a large part in determining the mood of the Labour conference. Even if there is no immediate move against Brown following a loss in Glasgow East, a defeat there will still lead to a fractious fringe and every speech by a cabinet minister being written up as a leadership bid. In these circumstances, it will be nigh-on-impossible for Brown to have a conference that is good enough to turn things round.
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Comments
Ian C
July 8th, 2008 3:44pmThe conference season will gain its final coatings of flavour from first the by-election in Glasgow and then the pre-conference mood. They are intimately and totally intertwined, especially (I think I am right in saying..?) as the rules of the Labour Party leadership elections involve their Conference.
I don't think anyone was suggesting otherwise that the Glasgow East result can instantaneoulsy bite GB.
It's just a matter of how badly he does....... Anything but an unexpectedly strong result will be a noose around his neck. If he just wins it will be a longer slower death (for all of us). If he loses, his feet will hardly touch the ground - come September.
GS London
July 8th, 2008 3:44pmNever say never.
The press is going through a bit of a hangover, you know the sort: "alcohol didn't do this, that kebab did." As with any bleary saturday-morning twenty-something, this is probably untrue.
For the media though, replace the words alcohol with Labour and kebab with World Economy.
Given the chance, the media will be back on the sauce in no time. Metaphorically, the whole weekend is still ahead.
Mike, Brighton
July 8th, 2008 4:32pmSeptember is far too late for Labour as they need to force Brown out right now. They are running out of time......
Faceless Bureaucrat
July 8th, 2008 4:52pmThat said, this 'puff' about 'Hapless' Harriet Harperson positioning herself for a shot at the 'big job' post Glasgow East seems to be gaining legs (rather worryingly...).
Tom
July 8th, 2008 5:26pmCan Labour afford a conference?
Fergus Pickering
July 8th, 2008 5:29pmWho's worried. I rather like the idea of Harperson as our next Labour Prime Minister. In fact I like it A LOT.
Tom
July 8th, 2008 9:33pmFor God sake they are not going to force Brown out before the next election. They haven't got the guts. 10p tax, local elections, London Mayor, Crewe and Nantwich, opinion polls and Henley hasn't forced him out, nothing will.
Stewart
July 8th, 2008 10:02pmHarperson as PM would be hillarious if it wouldn't be so embarrassing to the UK. Can you imagine her dealing with the Russians? Or lecturing Arabians on women's issues? It'll be bad enough when Obama gets out thought left right and centre on the world stage, we can do without two Western leaders with no international relations acumen. She'd be greetin like a wean before her first month was out to use Glasgow East parlance. Not even being a Woman would help her. The constant comparisons with Barroness Thatcher would undermine the novelty factor of her sex and her atrocious policy agenda would see her lead Labour to an even more humiliating defeat than Brown could manage.
DM
July 8th, 2008 10:59pmRemember, Gordon will never willingly let go, even if the entire Labour party is attempting to prise his fingers off.
Therefore there is no 'right time' to get rid of him as he will never allow it.
So, a coup today is as good as tomorrow, as the next day.
Why hang around to the conferences? What honestly will have got better by then???
Go for it Harriet.
Ben Elford
July 8th, 2008 11:24pmMany of the people in the Labour Party who want to get rid of Brown are the same people who, a short time ago, wanted to replace Blair with Brown and so to refurbish their electoral appeal.
Doesn't it by now occur to them that the problem they have is not the leader (whoever that is) but the whole failed, incompetent, bossy, narrow-minded party?
Perhaps they will manage to appoint a new leader; then six months later, they'll be wanting Brown back.
John de Finchley
July 9th, 2008 11:16amWhat Labour still doesn't get is that they have never been popular, merely tolerated for as long as the economic sun shone.
Now that the sun has stopped shining, the punters have been reminded that they can't afford a Labour government.
Changing the leader will make no difference. The only reason alternative leaders appear more popular is because they're all second-rate nobodies about whom little is known. They'll all wither when exposed to scrutiny, just as Broon did.
Labour is going down, and this time it may be for ever. I predict no more than 100 - 125 seats for Labour in 2010, and then implosion so that they end up as a regional party of Scotland and the north-east, their core vote eaten by the LDs and the BNP.