Why Israel probably won't bomb Iran during the transition
James Forsyth 8:38pm
There is a lot of chatter at the moment about the idea that Israel might use the gap between the US elections in November and the inauguration of a new president in January to strike a blow against Iran’s nuclear ambitions. But as Bob Kaplan points out there is a good reason to think this probably won’t happen:
There is a problem, though. Violating, say, Jordanian or Turkish airspace is not really the issue. The issue is that largely because of the on-going Iraq war, the U. S. controls the airspace over the entry points to Iran: in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf. Thus, an Israeli attack on Iran could probably only happen with U. S. connivance. And even if Israel could evade American sensors, few would believe that it honestly did so. As a sort of a last hurrah, one might speculate that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney would let Israel bomb Iran with a wink and a nod. But I do not believe that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates would do so. And because Gates has emerged as such a critical cabinet member, beloved by both the Pentagon staff and by the media, his word would be crucial.Gates has shepherded Iraq from nearly a lost cause to a cause that might yet be salvaged. And an Israeli attack on Iran, precisely because it could not occur without both the fact and the appearance of U. S. support, could unleash a fury of Iran-supported bombings inside Iraq. No, Gates would not be on board for an Israeli strike.
Bottom line: precisely because the U. S. dominates the airspace around Iran, it has checkmated itself. Israel will find it very hard to pull America’s chestnuts out of the fire in Iran. An Israeli attack is, in the last analysis, still unlikely. The problem of a nuclear Iran is far from being solved.
I do, though, think that the Israelis will be watching very carefully when the Iranians, test, as they surely will, the new president. If they see weakness or vacillation in the response, they will be more inclined to deal with the Iranian threat themselves rather than waiting for a time of America’s choosing.
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George F
July 8th, 2008 9:29pm Report this commentHaven't the Americans said that the Iranians have suspended their weapons programme?
Bob
July 8th, 2008 9:37pm Report this commentThis makes no sense.
If the Israelis launch an attack the Americans will no doubt be warned at the last second.
That means the Americans have to respond instantly, which I doubt they can in a political sense.
The Americans will not shoot down the Israelis, therefore fait accompli.
I would also imagine that the Americans would be happy to have plausible deniability.
Mike
July 8th, 2008 9:42pm Report this commentKaplan's thesis is false. If Israel believed it's national survival at stake then they would not care about violating US controlled airspace in attacking Iran. US domination of the airspace is meaningless when Israel faces the destruction of Tel Aviv and Haifa. The bigger issues are is the intelligence hence target list complete, does Israel (or the US) have the capability to destroy hardened underground facilities without resorting to tactical nuclear weapons, Iran's reaction and broader reaction in the Middle East
Frank Pulley
July 8th, 2008 9:45pm Report this commentSounds like background noise prior to the hit; red herrings swimming in murky waters.
Whack 'em!
Go Israel.
Austin Barry
July 8th, 2008 9:56pm Report this commentWell, Israel could always deploy its Dolphin-class submarines which carry Harpoon cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads. I suspect though that Iran will do something daft in the Gulf and provide the US with a Causus Belli. If not, the US will probably activate Gulf of Tonkin Part II, but when it's good and ready.
mckenzie
July 8th, 2008 10:57pm Report this commentI am not sure about how much we have been primed or groomed for this, but in my case it has been 100% successful because I cant wait.
I think the credit crunch is going to help slow us down to a significant pace in preparation for the collision between the fan and the shit. Looks like the Yes Car Credit days are going to come to a screeching halt. I will not miss all these young twats driving round their council estates in flash motors, even though they don't have a pot to piss in.
TGF UKIP
July 8th, 2008 11:52pm Report this commentUntil January Commander in Chief is George W Bush and I would be both hugely amazed and vastly disappointed if GW left office with Iran still on course for the possession of nuclear weapons.
Cortez
July 9th, 2008 12:38am Report this commentAmadinejad need not worry about Israel bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. What he should be worried about is the Mexicans. They want to whip some Iranian ass!
William Alexander
July 9th, 2008 7:00am Report this commentAnd those Russian torpedoes that travel at 150 MPH and cover the Strait? No oil through the strait and US oil imports would fall from 70% to 10%. Israel's attack would be USA's suicide. Just think of the price of a barrel of oil with the strait shut down. Why Brown could sell all the North Sea output to the US and make a fortune for the Treasury. Thats why the US intelligence says the Iranians are not pursuing the bomb. This is a propaganda game
Riaz ahmad
July 9th, 2008 8:49am Report this commentIran's revolutionary guards are capable of blocking the gulf even with small speed boats. If nuclear weopans are good for Israeli security, then same goes for Iran. Peace comes with honesty and good will, and certianly not with the shameless way in which the west is drowning in hypocricy. No sane person wants war or nuclear bombs, Iran must not be allowed to make nuclear weapans. Iran will have all the incentive to comply with the American demands if Isreali too disarms its nuclear weopans. The British public knows the difference between reality and prepoganda.
Mike
July 9th, 2008 9:11am Report this commentRiaz Ahmad - No. Allowing the Iranians to have nuclear weapons given their statements of intent vs. Israel and support for international terrorism is totally and utterly unacceptable.
Iran cannot and will not be allowed to achieve this and if it takes military means then so be it. You say peace comes from honesty and good will. What good will has Iran shown in Iraq, Lebanon and towards Israel? On current path, Iran faces the destruction of it's military capabilities
John
July 9th, 2008 9:40am Report this commentRiaz, hello from earth to your little house on planet Zog. Good will, eh? Iran has threatened to annihilate Israel. If you think the Jews of 2008 will roll over and say "Yes, please" to genocidal barbarians, you should seek help. Israel will not allow Iran to carry on as it has, and will do something about it rather than talk, as it has always done. Good luck to them.
Ian C
July 9th, 2008 2:23pm Report this commentOne of two things have to happen:
1. Iran de-nuclearises (what a word!) or
2. They get bombed til they stop.
Which and when is the question we would love to know the answer to. Will Israel act unilaterally? They will and can if necessary.
A President Obama will make that prospect more likely as he will prevaricate. A President McCain will make the answer knowable in the first year in office.
I agree TGF that it will be a bad day for Bush to leave office without the problem solved. But he blew his capital by sticking with Rumsfeld past November 2004. His ability to show 'cohones' became detached by that error and resulted in a change of strategy too late for him to do it - along with Rice's rise to appeasenik in chief at State where she rapidly went native.
THX1138
July 9th, 2008 3:59pm Report this commentIan C- How can you possibly know that Obama will prevaricate & that McCain will not? I wouldn't be so sure you should read The Audacity of Hope.
This all Bush's fault they got the bomb on his watch, but I doubt he's going to bomb the buggers no way does he have the political capital, this a problem for the next guy. Israel ain't bombing Iran without the big man's say so & help.
Tony
July 9th, 2008 4:41pm Report this commentUsual tripe from THX1138.
Israel bombed Syria's nuclear without warning America and simply isn't stupid enough to do nothing, but time is running out.
The threat to Israel comes less from an Iranian warhead but more from a well-placed dirty bomb. This would result in a smoke them out (the refugees) and massacre them strategy. That's why Tehran has spent so much time and money bolstering Hamas.
That's why Tehran must not get past the uranium enrichment stage.
Do not leave it too late, Israel.
THX1138
July 9th, 2008 10:20pm Report this commentTony-Hold on your very sure of yourself how do you know that Isreal bombed Syria without informing America?
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