The campaign in Glasgow East
Fraser Nelson 2:03pm
Drive around Glasgow East and it seems the SNP is making most of the headway. Its simple yellow fluorescent logo is everywhere. When I was in the constituency yesterday, I saw the same SNP van in four different parts of the seat– blasting out music and with “on your side” written in big letters on the side of it. There’s no doubt about it, the Nationalists are making their presence felt. Their message is: “You’ve voted Labour for decades – and what has it got you?” This resonates.
The Nats have a head start. It is a delicious irony that Gordon Brown called the Glasgow East by-election early so as to catch the SNP unawares. Yet it is his own party that has run around clueless, trying to find a candidate and being knocked back by four. Labour finally got Margaret Curran—already MSP for Glasgow Ballieston (an overlapping, but different, Holyrood constituency)—to stand. She would represent two seats in two parliaments – what they vainly call a “dual mandate”.
Now, I won’t denounce her for this, as I personally think every Scottish MP should do precisely this jobshare - two days in Westminster and two in Holyrood and one in the constituency. We’d all save a lot of money that way, even though it would mean letting those 129 idle MSPs loose on the streets. Agonisingly for the SNP, it can’t denounce Curran as Alex Salmond did not stand down from his Westminster seat when he rejoined the Scottish Parliament. He’ll be regretting this now, as it denies the SNP a potent attack line: Curran wants two jobs when half her would-be constituents don’t have any jobs.
It is easy to confuse Scottish Labour with the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) around there – both campaign using red and yellow colours, and both candidates have the surname Curran. I passed one of the SSP stalls, where Frances Curran was taking questions. Scottish Labour seemed nowhere to be seen – but, to be fair, it had only just launched its campaign.
It’s easy to forget that the SSP is not Tommy Sheridan’s lot. He has split off and set up his own splinter party – naming it “solidarity” without a hint of irony. And anyway, he’s not standing.
As for the Tories – well. When you see the Scottish Conservative & Unionist posters appear it is a sign that you’re approaching a posh neighbourhood. There are some stunning houses just off the motorway in Glasgow East, which must make an ideal commuter base. It looks like the Tories are going after just a handful of votes.
Like Ben Brogan, I suspect Labour will retain this seat – losing a 13,507 majority is beyond even Gordon Brown. It’s almost twice the majority in Crewe which was itself a very tall order. But Brown’s premiership is one long limbo dance – just when you think he cant get any lower, he surprises everyone. He has lost the seat where he lives (Dunfermline & West Fife 2006 by-election), his motherland (Scottish Parliament 2007 elections), the city he works in (the BoJo revolution, 2008) and all that’s missing is a defeat in the city of his birth, Glasgow. We have two more weeks to wait.
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Comments
fulcanelli
July 9th, 2008 2:27pmI find it amazing that people, particularly in this day and age, still feel the need to refer to people, places etc as 'posh'. Just because some people work harder to earn more money etc, we should not scoff at them, their success, or their possessions. Quite frankly, it smacks of jealousy.
As noted in your previous article, and indeed by people from this very area, a lot of the problems are almost self inflicted. People are in a vicious circle of self inflicted poverty, crime, and addiction. The opportunities are available to people for self improvement, the question is really whether they want this or the easier solution of benefits?
The answer, for the majority at least, would appear to be ever increasing benefits.
Patrick
July 9th, 2008 2:33pmThe only ray of sunshine for Gordon must be the alleged 'wilted before it started' putsch of Harriet Harman. She was awful at PMQ's and even made the Great Leader look nimble, shurefooted and in command of his own stutter.
Future PM? Her fellow diner of yesterday, Jack Straw, was a grimacing picture to behold as he listened aghast to Mrs Droomey droning. Priceless.
William
July 9th, 2008 2:41pmIt's true about the SNP. The only literature and the only canvasser I've had have both been SNP. They were very busy last weekend. From her website, I can see that Davena Rankin was out rallying the troops near me but I was working.
I think it will be much closer than people think - and the SNP candidate is a rather odious individual - but the hostility towards Labour round these parts is unprecedented.
Edwin Lee
July 9th, 2008 2:41pmThank you for your by-election postings, Fraser; they are a lot more impressive than what i've read elsewhere. Keep them up!
Long live The Spectator, etc; I have enjoyed both the mag and Coffee House immensely in recent weeks.
Anyway, my dream would be for the SNP and Conservatives to beat Labour into third place, but I just can't see that happening. Even Labour slipping to second would be huge; the SNP would have to show a degree of skill in by-election campaigning that hasn't been evident or called-upon recently.
On the other hand, perhaps it's win-win for Conservatives. If Labour lose the seat it will be meltdown for them, but no-one will have the bottle to force Gordon Brown out - probably because they know how bloody and destructive the whole process would be. If Labour scrape home, however, the headlines for Brown will be a lot better and he will have added determination to hang on till the bitter end. And this will merely mean a delayed meltdown - Labour may still be vaguely electable in Scotland, but in England they will be pushed back to the inner cities.
Peter Buss
July 9th, 2008 4:01pmI'm sure you're right Fraser. I believe that Labou ae spinning like mad that they are likely to lose this seat so that when they hold on they can pesent it as some amazing victory by the "Geat Leader"
Augustus.
July 9th, 2008 4:27pmMargaret Curran has "...always seen it as one of my jobs to represent those on the receiving end of very significant levels of crime and anti-social behaviour. I will never be defeatist about it, I will never accept it can't be tackled." Knife crime is "deep-seated and far too prevalent."
Her plan involves doubling the number of police on East End streets, and jail for anyone carrying a lethal blade.
Dear lady, these enhanced policing plans and additional draftees have all been tried before, and have failed to curb the vandalism, street crime and gangland warfare which has been going on in the Township since the 1960s. No amount of police initiatives will reverse the culture, now so inbred that veteran gang members are reaching middle age and even writing books about it. While kids as young as eight are being recruited into gangs. TV crews from around the world are even making films about the terror on East Glasgow streets. You can watch the fights on your TV in countries around the world. You can watch as one gang of youths attacks another on street corners in open daylight with knives, jabbing and thrusting at their opponents, even throwing the knives at their backs as the losers run away, while the winners calmly disperse after yet another senseless victory. And all the time the camera is rolling there's never a sign of the police. That is the reality, and will remain so whilst there is no adequate means of employment, or the will to work.
Glasgow East, and other places like Liverpool are both the inevitable and inescapable result of a mismanaged 20th century socialist dependancy culture.
Tiberius
July 9th, 2008 4:36pmIf Labour is as down in Scotland as in England, what will happen up their when the Great Forked Tongue is no more?.
He was dragged out of retirement to lead the SNP, a party which resembles a fan club in much the same way as the SDP did for David Owen. And doesn't Alex just love it!
I suppose it could be years away, but where will Scottish politics' centre of gravity be post Salmond?
BrianSJ
July 9th, 2008 6:08pmTiberius; good question. It is my impression that Goldie has started the long haul of building a Scottish Conservative Party. What she does post-independence will be interesting but may well be sensible. The SLD seem to be in a worse mess than their Westminster counterparts. The creation of a separate Scottish Labour Party looks like being the most drawn-out acrimonious battle possible, and SLAB is going nowhere till that happens. Meanwhile, a one-party state.
Joe Middleton
July 9th, 2008 6:47pmAs an independent country 'Tiberius' (remember the Romans wanted to enslave the entire world so it's a rather dodgy name to choose) we Scots will decide our own future. There are plenty of competent people both inside the SNP and out of it and once we have responsibility for our own affairs we won't have to put up with people patronising our country. The SNP is not a one man band and Scotland can get by without any politician. The fact we have someone politically principled like Salmond at this point however means we are more likely to gain independence in the short term. Good news for us, not so good for those politicians who owe their position and livelihood to this unequal union.
Chris
July 9th, 2008 9:31pmAs Mr Eugenides (Pi be upon him) has pointed out, the twazzock who's standing for the SNP has tried to go after Margaret Curran on the issue of being both an MP and an MSP. Eck the Fish will love him for that.
Tiberius
July 9th, 2008 11:11pmJoe M: I have no wish to cross Hadrian's wall with strengthened legions, nor interfere with the government of Scotland, but I believe that the devolution settlement created by Blair is divisive. We do not, as I'm sure you know, have universal free university education and geriatric care in England.
But on Salmond, I would ask you how a pricipled man would on the one hand gladly take EU grants for an independent Scotland, while on the other criticize it for ruining the Scottish fishing industry with the dreadful CFP.
bob
July 10th, 2008 7:39amFraser,
I feel a T-shirt heading my way.
Jock Politicaljunkie
July 10th, 2008 10:15amTiberius, Salmond has NOT criticised the EU for the dreadful CFP. He has, however, criticised the UK GOVERNMENT for selling Scottish Fishing down the river in agreeing to the CFP.
Claims that Scotland is better represented in the EU by being part of the large UK voting block is just so much tosh when, at best, Scottish interests are ignored or, at worst traded off like Scottish Fishing was.
Win or lose in Glasgow East, the ball is rolling. Scottish Labour are a busted flush and Independence is now inevitable.
It's just a case of WHEN not IF.
Stevie
July 10th, 2008 10:36amLittle surprise that Scotland's fishing industry is in ruins when Scots ministers are locked out of talks, being told to stand outside in the corridor and await their fate!
William
July 10th, 2008 12:51pmJock, like most Nats, confuses 'anti-Labour' sentiment with 'independence'. They are not one and the same.
Nebulous
July 11th, 2008 7:53amTiberius you don't have free university education or geriatric care (as you put it) in England - because your politicians have not chosen to spend the money there. That is largely driven by the electorate. We have more demand for both here so the politicians have complied. We are sacrificing in other areas to get those benefits. What you need to hold to account is not the devolution settlement but your own politicians.
Nebulous
July 11th, 2008 7:58amWilliam - of course anti-Labour is not the same as independence in Scotland, in exactly the same way that anti-Labour is not the same as anti-EU in England. However as the only meaningful opponents to Labour in Scotland, anti-Labour votes will benefit the SNP more than anyone else. Just like anti-Labour votes will go to the Tories in England.