Labour's factions
Fraser Nelson 11:17am
Talk about how to depose Gordon Brown is widespread in Labour circles, but for journalists it is hard to know how to convey it. There is no real news story, insofar as there has been no rebels’ meeting (that we know about) but the whispers have reached such volume that it has become an event in itself. In my political column for the magazine today, I lay out the three camps.
The Insurgents: This includes but is not limited to Blairites. They want to use the recess to dump him, arguing that the longer he stays the more damage Labour will sustain and the larger the Tory majority will be. There may not be a candidate to win the next election, they say, but decisions made now could make the difference between a one-term and two-term Cameron government because Brown is leading Labour to that kind of defeat
The One-Last-Chancers: They believe the recess will provide a cooling off period – after all, wasn’t it just last summer that magazines like The Spectator had on their front cover a picture of David Cameron with his head in the noose? So let’s see how the summer goes. Perhaps as we come closer to the election, the media will get tired kicking Brown and start asking awkward questions of Cameron. And last summer brought three out-of-the-blue events that Brown was regarded to have dealt with well: the floods, the foot-and-mouth outbreak and the terrorist incidents. So let’s wait until the conference, give him the chance to prove himself, and then decide.
I spoke to one friend of David Miliband who lamented that the Foreign Secretary is now boring all his friends with the same phrase (of Heseltine’s) – that he who wields the dagger never wears the crown. So who will wield the dagger? On this question Gordon Brown’s future – and that of the Labour party – now rests.The Micawberists: They want to keep Gordon Brown in the hope that something will turn up. They have no idea what, but they hate the idea of a “divisive” leadership challenge and believe there is no one manifestly better than Brown. Why should the party tear itself up, and do Cameron’s work for him? It should be remembered here that Labour does not have the killer instinct that Conservatives do and so are cursed by the Labour mentality of sticking to a five-year plan even if it is manifestly the wrong one.
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Comments
BrianSJ
July 10th, 2008 11:38amAnd now a word from our sponsors.....
Who would the unions accept? The Blairites won't do well there and can no longer bring their own money.
David
July 10th, 2008 11:39amSo Miliband believes that Brown is not up to the job, but out of will not depose him...
Either he believes that he is uniquely qualified to lead and the rest of cabinet are worse than Brown, or he is willing to let the country and party suffer for his personal ambition.
Lovely guy, very honorable I am sure
Mike, Brighton
July 10th, 2008 12:02pmBy default Brown is broadly following the Travolta-Micawber strategy (c. Finkelstein) i.e stayin' alive and waiting for something to turn up. The Labour Party is demonstrating a startling example of collective groupthink akin to lemmings. I wouldn't give them credit for forming into any groups other than the "oh god not me" school of problem avoidance.
Is there no MP in the Labour Party to declare the emperor naked? None, not a single one, nada, nil. Truly pitiful. Even Hutton will not admit his colourful commentary of last year about Brown.
David Milliband if he wants to be taken as a serious and senior politician not some over-promoted geeky policy wonk should grasp some little courage and publicly state some bleeding obvious truths. Before Straw realises it's his last and only chance at the big time (however brief) and beats him to it
Mike, Brighton
July 10th, 2008 12:04pmBrianSJ - the accepted political betting candidate that Labour would select after bloodbath and catastrophe of the election, assuming he can hold his seat, is John Cruddas
Chuck Unsworth
July 10th, 2008 12:08pmAnd which of the potential candidates is suitable Prime Ministerial or Leadership material? Or do those who might wish to depose Brown believe that their choice of replacement may 'grow into' the job?
Whoever it might be, if they want to retain any credibility they'll have to go to the country in a General Election almost immediately. Labour has neither the cash nor the ability to do that.
London Calling
July 10th, 2008 12:28pmI have a puppet called Oscar
He’s rather a nice chap
He could be our Prime Minster
If Gordon gets the sack.
Oscar’s very open minded
He listens to all of those who speak
He even gives them answers
When his wooden mouth does squeak.
Oscars not just any puppet
He has no strings attached
But best of all you can control him With your hand stuck up his back.
Three cheers for Oscar
Hooray, Hooray, Hooray,
He’s Britain’s finest Gentleman
And I would vote for him today.
William Norton
July 10th, 2008 12:31pmMike, Brighton: "The Labour Party is demonstrating a startling example of collective groupthink akin to lemmings."
That's a facile analysis. Lemmings are fine and decent animals and have done nothing to deserve comparison with members of the Labour Party.
emily
July 10th, 2008 12:38pmLabour in the South east?Whats happening there with Martin Salter and his faithful aparatchik Malcolm Powers..?
Mike, Brighton
July 10th, 2008 1:01pmWilliam Norton, I apologise. Comparing the Labour party with Lemmings is a poor comparison. They are more like other, similar, furry rodents of the type that abandons sinking ships. These ones are however staying!
David Parker
July 10th, 2008 1:26pmChuck Unsworth,
Why do you believe that a successor to Brown would have to go to the country almost immediately?
All that would mean is that he/she would become the shortest serving Prime Misister with the greatest electoral defeat so far recorded.
If Brown is to be deposed, Labours only chance is to do this now, in the hope that his successor may be able to repair some of the damage and reduce the scale of the defeat in 2010.
This would probably appeal to a number of sitting Labour MPs who would otherwise be certain to lose their seats if Brown remains in post.
John
July 10th, 2008 1:28pm"It should be remembered here that Labour does not have the killer instinct"
Says who? It's full of autopilot killing androids like Harpic, for example. And remember Milburn, Mandelson, Campbell ... no redeeming features whatsoever, other than being fairly well-programmed mechanical Rottweilers.
Chris
July 10th, 2008 1:45pmIt's all over for Labour whatever happens. The dread political cycle moves on and it's the Tories' turn to f**k everything up again.
oldtimer
July 10th, 2008 1:52pmI see that Mr Brogan thinks that there may be a parallel whips office in operation - one comprising unswerving Brown loyalists and the one that organised the the winning vote to retain the John Lewis list et al.
Fraser, do you agree that, if true, it has the makings on an almighty bust up, the only question being When?
Liz Brown
July 10th, 2008 2:05pmwould any of the ghasly Millipedes/Ballsup coopers/kellys and etcs want to become the Leader of party that is heading for extinction? I suspect that they are examining their career options elsewhere (hopefully as far away from the UK as possible). Or is that wishful thinking?
Water
July 10th, 2008 2:54pmDon’t forget the holographic hand stuck up in his guts
For Oscar daft? Only seemingly such.
For now he has a tongue with which others claim to speak
To make him out to be something he’s not, either on top or underneath?
It’s true he get’s caught out here and there
That affliction of a drum married with the snare,
That’s why the day his emancipation comes,
The reaction may be more then merely meek,
I feel worried for those who may have wronged him
While he claimed asylum in seeming sleep.
Though this is not as bad as B in 10 disarrayed bubbles,
Each in their entirety equalling trouble.
Though I couldn’t care less for his bubbling squeak,
For his policies are anything other then sheik,
The supervenience and financial effect, may turn of your heating and make you a narcolep-tic .
TrevorH
July 10th, 2008 3:03pm"assuming he can hold his seat" ... this is the stark issue that ought to be concentrating a few minds. there is no point waiting till after an election to throw your cap into the ring if you have lost your cap at the election.
Would Straw keep his seat on present form?
Cogito Ergosum
July 10th, 2008 4:54pmHarold MacMillan rescued the Conservative party from a desperate situation in early 1957. But is there anyone in the Labour party of MacMillan's calibre?
Fed Up
July 10th, 2008 6:06pmWhy do you never name these people? And thus shame them for not having the guts to brief on the record.
Ian C
July 10th, 2008 7:42pmThe Micawberists currentluy have it but the longer they wait for 'something to turn up' the worse the outcome will be. The definition of being onn the horns of a dilemma. And something will come up, but it will not have the effect they are hoping for... Question is when and will it be good timing for the Tories?
TGF UKIP
July 10th, 2008 11:14pmFraser, it has seemed to me for some while that the Tories do have one massive achilles heel,and not at all surprising when considering whose responsibility it is, and that heel is economic policy.
The Populus poll this week had the Tories on a mere 39% on the economy and the most recent YouGov poll indicated only 35% thought that the Cameron Tories would handle Britain's problems better than Brown's Labour. In short the Tories 20%+ lead is more anti Labour and Gordon rather than pro Tory and Dave.
The question for Labour then becomes how can they seize the economic ititiative and capitalize on this absence of public trust in Tory economic policy.
Now it has seemed to me for some time that the best way they can do this is to shoot what should have been the Tories' fox but wasn't. ie They take McShane's route of cutting spending and taxes to show "they're on our side and feel our pain." I had thought it at least possible that they would do this via a mini budget before the Recess but I can now see a better reason for them leaving it to the Autumn Statement. That reason is that the borrowing rise is going to be so large that they will need something correspondingly huge to bury it.
Which leaves, I suppose, the question will Gordon still be in charge then. My guess is that if Glasgow East goes then so does Gordon and that it will be Balls who, out of his own self interest, will deliver the coup de grace. I then expect we will see many pictures of Messrs Straw and Balls together in the ensuing days.
If they hold Glasgow East then I would expect Gordon to stay - that is, if the unions want to keep him.
And it is here, Fraser, that I really do wonder if what Ed/Jack/Ed/Geoff/David/Alistair/Yvette/James/Alan say or think matters any longer. Money is power so at this juncture in the Labour Party's history, it would seem to me a lot more relevant what Messrs Simpson, Woodley and Kenny think and how they see the future of THEIR party.
john miller
July 11th, 2008 1:34amThe second unelected leader in 13 months?