Is it 1896 all over again?

There’s a great piece in The Journal today by John Steele Gordon about what election this year’s might ressemble:

"the election this year is between two very different political personalities. John McCain is a moderate conservative and war hero with a solid political record but limited media skills (he still has trouble using a teleprompter) and no excess of charisma. Barack Obama is a young, very charismatic newcomer with virtually no political record but great oratorical talent who promises profound change.

This is very reminiscent of the election of 1896, when William McKinley ran against William Jennings Bryan. McKinley too was a genuine war hero (distinguished service in the Civil War) who then entered politics. He served several terms in the House and became chairman of the Ways and Means Committee. In 1891 he was elected governor of Ohio.

His opponent's political résumé was a lot thinner, with only two back-bencher terms in the House. But at the Democratic convention of 1896, Bryan electrified the crowd with his "Cross of Gold" speech. It instantly became an American classic and propelled him to the nomination at just 36 years old, by far the youngest man ever nominated by a major party. Like Mr. Obama, Bryan promised a new politics aimed to benefit the common man, not the capitalists.

He launched the country's first whistle-stop campaign, giving more than 500 speeches around the country. And at first it worked. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had made its debut on May 26 of that year at 40.94, had lost 30% by August, when it stood at 28.48. But the Republicans fought back, utilizing new advertising techniques, and painted Bryan as someone whose populist ideas would wreck the American economy. The Dow began to recover as McKinley picked up support in northern industrial cities, and among ethnic workers who had been previously Democratic. In the end he won with 51% of the popular vote against 47%."

The RCP average has Obama 5.5 points ahead. On the one hand, that is a clear lead well outside the margin of error. However, the McCain camp will feel that as long as Obama is in sight, they’ll have a chance in the final weeks of the campaign as voters begin to concentrate on Obama’s qualifications to be Commander in Chief. McCain supporters should also be encouraged by today’s Good Morning America report from their recently returned correspondent in Iraq on why Obama’s pull-out plan is a bad idea; if the media narrative shifts on Iraq that would be a huge fillip for McCain.