Obama's lead down to three points

Verity

Right on schedule. I predicted that Obama's support would begin to dwindle about now. He's no longer a novelty, and his arrogance is irritating a lot of ordinary Americans who do not see Presidency as Obama's and Mrs Ticked-Off's birthright.

Also, his plan to give a speech at the Brandenburg gate - why? save two previous high profile American presidents gave speeches at the Brandenburg Gate, but in a specific context - was so crudely opportunistic that I felt a little charge of Schadenfreude. (I'm hoping for more, later.)

It didn't take long. Angela Merckel has said Germany doesn't want foreign electioneering politicians using a German national monument as a backdrop.

Obama understands no context outside himself. All his pronouncements on foreign affairs could have been made by a 14-year old.

matthew martin

Obama will be pictured (whether fairly or otherwise) as just not ready to lead.

There are those on both sides who will vote for their guy no matter what.

The article was right: Those still on the fence or ignorant white men. Not the recipe for the party of the super-educated minorities.

Ian C

Obama should be out of sight by now. That he is not will be worrying his team.

This is not to say that it won't happen, but the longer McCain is in touch the more likely it will be for him to become President.

Barcode Parade

Americans are waking up and realizing that they can't vote for an empty suit during such a critical time.

realtruth

Yup they ( obmaniacs) are finding out the same thing with him.. same old thing.. he's a double talking deceiving politician ! -Go McCain 08!

Dan

It's a Newsweek poll, which means it's not a credible poll, although in this case it appears to be accurate. The two polls the one needs to watch are the Gallup and Rasmussen daily & weekly tracking polls. Both of those polls also have Obama's lead down to 2-3 points as well. This shouldn't surprise anyone. Americans are starting to wake up from their trance and see Barack Obama for what he really is: a lying, pandering south-side Chicago politician who's also totally unqualified to assume the presidency. As a result, they're also starting to take a serious look at John McCain, and what they see is a bona fide war hero and political independent who's always put his country before himself or his party. McCain will win in November.

ktlin

His lead may be "shrinking". However he is ahead in Penns, Ohio, Va, Wi polling okay in Fla. Is the GOP going to say McCain is catching him while the election is slowly slipping away state by state. Another HIllary. Once you get so far behind you can't catch up. The best thing for Obama is for McCain to think he is doing okay. He is not. Most or at least a lot of Republicans don't like McCain. It is up to Obama to decide if people like him. That is not good news for McCain. And his speaking manner is atrocious. His advisors are ignorant and his strategy is not a winning strategy. Remind you of Kerry? Worse than Dole. And we know what happened to him. I think the establishment and media made a collosal error choosing McCain. The party sure didn't.

Greg A

Last month's Newsweek poll was a bogus outlier. It's very likely that this campaign will be close through the fall, and that the final vote will be a one or two point win for whomever.

Mike Smithson

So you support the geriatric war-monger who calls his wife a "c**t" in public?

Verity

What happened to my post? It was up and now it's gone.

Nickberry

One knows that McCain is faring well when the Obama supporters start blaming the media for McCain's closing the gap... instead of looking at the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.

I might add that these are polls and NOT primaries. The idea of someone getting far ahead in polls and the other not being able to catch up is a fallacy based on past election years.

Freddy

Just wait until Obama's convention speech to a throng of 75,000 in Denver at a stadium. This will creep out a lot of Americans as Hitler, Castro, Mugabe and Chavez gave their messianc speeches in simliar venues. Obama politically is more Mugabe than tax cutter JFK. McCain may be boring and he is no conservative but the U.S. is not ready for Rev. Wright's Afro-Marxism. Democrats are going to be longing for Hillary or even Edwards in a month or two.

JimBob

Looks like Obama has finally been found out-Go McCain!!!

vicki from fly over parts

The reason Obama is losing ground is because his followers (and a little bit him, a la San Fran) have a horrible habit of insulting people who aren't in their camp. They referred to Hillary's people as down-scale, uneducated, Joe Six Pack, racists, red necks, etc. And now they're saying basically the same about McCain supporters. Plus throw on top of that all their insults about his age. It's hard to win over people you've burned. Takes a long time to get over that.

Verity

I can't find the original thread where this appeared as this whole blog has assumed a chaotic character since Pete went on holiday, but if you go to YouTube you can see Jesse Jackson - thinking the mike was off - complaining to a confrere that Obama talks down to black people. Just what I had always thought, the patronising twit. Anyway, then Jackson goes on, not realising the mike's live, to say he would like to cut his --ts off.

I've always had a soft spot for Jesse Jackson. He was very nice looking when he was younger and he is such a rascal. But his oratory was some of the best in the English language of the last century. He is/was a superb extemporaneous speaker. He comes from generations of black people who preached messages of hope and faith in black churches, and many of them, having been brought up in the tradition, are very skillful. Obama's not an Afro-American in that sense. He never went through the African-American experience, which is why he talks down to black Americans.

Anyway, sadly, Jesse had to apologise, but I was pleased to note how half-hearted it was. He clearly can't stand Obama.

Verity

Oops! My previous post is back up. You put your right post in, they take your right post out; you put your right post in and they shake it all about.

Adam Smith

See www.fivethirtyeight.com for the real scoop. The June Newsweek was just as skewed, (in Obama's direction) as this one is in McCain's. The composite poll trends shows a growing Obama lead in both popular vote and Electoral College. Most significantly, the bettors have Obama with a 65% probability of win, (see Rasmussen's market), and they are rarely wrong at this stage of the campaign. You guys are just trying to sell a new, new story to the unwashed. Go back to covering the economic meltdown that will insure a Republican return to the wilderness for the next forty years.

Phyllis Blue

Obama could turn this around very quickly by asking Hillary to be on the ticket with him. I feel certain Hillary would have invited him to join her on the ticket if the show was on the other foot. Will he do the decent, honorable, winning thing? The sooner the better before he drops even more and before the ticket could not recover.

concerned voter

No matter how creditable this poll is, Obama's not way ahead after Clinton suspended the campaign is revealing troubles for Dems. BO could always draw HUGE crowds to the rallies when still facing off Clinton. And yet even then, less than half of races BO beat Clinton after March 4. Importantly, he won much less critical swing states than Clinton and lost very importatn blue states such as NY, CA and MA, etc. I wonder if the crowd went to see BO just our of curiosity as after all, he is the first AA candidate won so many states in the primary. Also people wanted to check out his speech that everybody said inspiring but definitely not me. The truth might be even though lots people like him but don't feel he is ready to be a Commander-in-Chief.

Kincaid

The fact that the polls are this close is extremely bad news for Obama("The Messiah")....for this reason: When people get polled about this loser.....many are not telling the truth. They don't want to appear racist to the pollster,so they say they will vote Obama. And I even concede that some people think they will do that. But the reality is that when they go to the polls on election day.....their common sense and love of this country will kick in. obama is a left wing,radical liberal....and he terrifies me. It has nothing to do with the color of his skin. If Condoleeza Rice or Colin Powell were running....I would vote for either of them in a heartbeat....and would be proud to do it!!

Augustus

The gap will close and be reversed when Americans come to realize with whom they would rather share a foxhole.

edwin James Roberson

Right on,Kincaid ....and well said. Funny that obama("The Chosen One") wont commit to the debate at the military base in Texas. I read an article that said the organizer keeps giving Obama numerous dates to do it....but his campaign keeps saying they have prior engagements. what BS!! First of all....he is terrified of debates in general because he is awful at them. More importantly....he is extremely terrified of being in front of a pro-military,pro-American crowd. Gee....I wonder who they will support. What a loser he is. I can't wait for the debates-regardless of the scene. America is going to finally see what an idiot Obama is without a prepared speech or teleprompt. Plus the fact that McCain is pretty good in the town-hall style format. nice try, Obama. Maybe you should go back to community organizing(i.e.-giving people directions to the welfare office).

Well said Augustus

Augustus-perfect comment. And really the essence of why you choose one or the other....all the other issues pale in comparison. You are a scholar and a gentleman. But I doubt Obama would get in a foxhole.....he would try to 'negotiate" and appease. Coward.

Ann

Ignorant white men, eh ... what racist drivel. All the Americans I know, mostly ex-democrats, will vote against Obama because they are highly educated and have seen through this ghastly charlatan. And most of them are women.

Water

And so it begins...

David

The media from the beginning did not want Hillary, because they knew that she would win. They put a crown on Obama. They far left thought they had someone that would do all that they wanted. Now they have found out that he will say anything to get elected. They far left wrong again. In our troubled times, Hillary is the only person who could take this country in the right direction. Now there will be many deomocrats that will vote for McCain. The democrats really fouled things up.

Ann

Geriatric, eh? Another sad adolescent who thinks that people more than 5 years older than him are over the hill.

You're right,Ann

Ann-that is so true. More and more people are seeing right past this loser and it's about time. And the poor liberals are getting so upset! I mean really upset-like when the post office loses their welfare checks!

Ann

Kincaid, Obama is not a liberal. He is a leftoid appeaser, not the same thing at all. Please don't besmirch the term 'liberal' (yes, I know that a great many people go along with this hijacking of a good word by lying leftoids, but let's try to reverse this).

Ann

"Go back to covering the economic meltdown that will insure a Republican return to the wilderness for the next forty years"

LOL. Dream on.

Verity

Even if he invited Hillary onto the ticket with him - which I don't believe he will because he is frightened of her. She is a far more experienced, accomplished politician than he is and she is tuned into global politics.

Also, the reason a lot of Dems voted for him is, they don't want to see Bill Clinton back in the White House -not because they think he's a competent administrator (given that he's never administrated anything) or knows the first thing about international affairs, or the military. This man has spent his entire adult life running for office.

Austin Barry

Obama is a supercilious, humourless and smug piece of work with dubious connections (mind you, this is true of most politicians). Talking with Joe Paycheck Americans in the fly-over States of Utah and Nevada last week, there was a lot of negative comment on Obama mostly on the "who-is-this-guy?" theme. For me the thought of a holier-than-thou smirking Obama Presidency is emetic.

Chuck

It's amazing how much steam Obama has lost since he finished off Clinton. I thought he would breeze to the presidency over McCain. What in the world is wrong with this guy's campaign?

John K

It's interesting that people didn't believe that Obama was up by 15 points, but now believe the same poll that says he is only up by 3. Average gap is 9 points in July. I would take it. Sen. McGoo doesn't do anything for me. Did you see his face during the Viagra questions - I wonder if he is on it. That would be a hoot.

Dave

Obama has not campaigned well since wrapping up the nomination, and McCain was all prepared to pounce.

Now that Bad Judgment John is showing his true colors: lying directly to a Denver Vet about his voting record, and surrounding himself with people who think Bushonomics is great and the recession is a myth, it's his turn for come critical press.

Obama will win this fall by 30 some electoral votes, and the country will be back in sane hands.

Jimmy

Obama votes the party line. Keep in mind that congress has an 11% approval rating. The honeymoon is ending, people will realize he is Pelosi. McCain has some problems too, though.

TomK

im sure many left leaning folks including the media are surprised by the fact that Obamas lead is shrinking.. You aint seen nothing yet.

TomK

Im sure many on the left including the media are wondering how this can happen to their candidate. Were Talking about Barak obama here! You get it its Barak Obama!! one more time, were talking about Barak Obama!!

Verity

Actually, Chuck, it was totally predictable. In fact, I predicted it.

He was a novelty. He is undeniably good looking and elegant.

His background is, uh, complicated.

His relationship with the Chicago Democratic machine, uh, damaging.

After he was elected to the national (as opposed to the state of Illinois) Congress, he devoted his time to a run on the presidency.

He slept in the Senate (at least he got marks for attendance) through debates on national security. Read that sentence again. As a national senator, he was observed sleeping through debates on American national security.

He had one focus: Obama.

People notice this kind of thing.

The novelty is gone. He is vacant. He wants to go to Germany for purposes of posing in front of the Brandenburg Gate, which is so disgusting, it's an emetic.

Kennedy and Reagan gave speeches there for a reason. The face-off with the USSR. The terrifying Cold War. The Wall, which President Reagan demanded, in front of the Brandenburg Gate, "Tear this wall down!" A moment in history!

Obama's not a President of the United States, he has absolutely no reason to go to Germany, which I am confident he could not find on a globe, yet his sleazily thinks he can use another country's monument, and two American presidents who managed the steely will to face down the USSR, in his own interest.

The man is sickening.

Howard

Any follower of presidential politics knows that national polls do not mean a thing. It is the state polls that need to be watched carefully. Fortunately for Senator Obama, he is ahead in state polls, even some of the socalled Republican states.

BUZZARD'S KORNER

first off, McFlip/Flop has been getting off easy in the media, especially when you have Fox do nothing but hammer Obama on everything, and talk like McInsane is a King, so that is the first problem, second, did the media intentionally build him up, only to enjoy tearing him down? Seems to be the media trend here, and thrid, Newsweek lied last week just so tht this story could come out this week so the media can help McIdiot sow doubts about Obama......BUT IT WON'T WORK......NOT THIS TIME.....NOT THIS PLACE......NOT THIS ELECTION.....that is why Obama's lead has slipped....(or so the media says....????)

thinking

if there is any democrat who can lose in this environment it's substance-less obama. go mccain!

Maths

Dear Spectator,

Bad understanding of statistics is bad.

Yours,
Mathematics

Austin Barry

Verity is, as usual. the most perceptive of threaders(?). Obama is a shill, a con man.

Verity

Buzzard's Corner - Your vicious electioneering is pointless in Britain. But I think we get your incredibly uninteresting point. Keying in CAPITAL LETTERS! doesn't make your thoughts any more pertinent, especially as you clearly don't know your audience on this blog.

Personally, I think Obama is a mayfly. Gadding about. Next stop, the Brandenberg Gate, for God's sake. The man's historically illiterate and an egomaniac along lines we haven't seen for several decades.

Wilson Preston Loffhauser III

Uneducated Whites will decide the election! - I LUV IT! - Take that snobs!

zach

Fortunately for barack obama, the media will be cheerleading for him as hard as they can until the election. They don't even worry about being subtle anymore they just get right on their knees at the sight of him. When u r an inexperienced, inconsistent, race-baiting panderer, it helps when 90% of reporters are in the tank for you. Just ask hillary clinton!

Ganpat Ram

I am known on this website as a die-hard Clintonite-cum-McCainite. I have no use for the conman Obama and his brainless supporters.

Having said all that I'll bet my house that poor old McCain will be walloped in November.

He is running a right-wing campaign when he has a great reputation as a maverick Republican capable of reaching out to cetrists and even the Left. This kind of Republican is exactly what the country is looking for in a year when right-wing Republicanism is utterly discredited.

Yet McCain can't see this. He is proving to be not very bright, to be frank.

Such a weak opponent even the feeble cliche-mongering clown Obama can beat.

He is comfortably ahead in virtually all the swing states.

His narrow lead nationally is a blessing, because it will prevent complacency and means the public will not get bored with him as it will if he is leading too much too early.

Nope.

We must get used to the idea of President Obama.

I like to face up to the realities. That is why I am not the feckless type of being called an Obamite. But the same quality makes me realise how inevitable his vicory is.

He will be thoroughly discredited by 2012, the year of Hillary or Al Gore.

TammyFay

Ah, ha! While McCain was flying fighter jets, Obama was playing with paper airplanes. Who would you prefer to lead this country? It is pretty obvious.

Mugwump

In the end, the American swing voters will not cast their secret ballots for an emaciated, arugula-eating, gun-hating son of a Muslim goatherder father and an atheist mother whose spiritual mentor for 20 years begged God to damn America.

The Digital Politic

DEMOCRATS HAVE NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD... AND ACTED SO SAD

During a US Presidential election season in a two party system, no party has had it so good, so rosy, since the election directly following the departure of President Richard M. Nixon from office, as does the current Democratic Party. The Republicans didn't have it this good after the popular President Ronald Reagan completed his eighth year in office. The Democrats are running against a party that currently and arguably has the most unpopular president in the history of the United States of America. George W. Bush is the steward of the worst military decisions our valiant service persons have had to endure since the Vietnam War. And to those who still believe that the occupation of Iraq is not as bad as the Vietnam War, they will be stunned when they realize we have finally surpassed it. So much so, that the media is still not allowed to film our fallen soldiers bodies being returned home. What are the Democrats doing?

Moreover,

"The global current account deficit of the United States is now larger than it has ever been—nearing $800 billion, almost 7 percent of US GDP. To finance both the current account deficit and its own sizable foreign investments, the United States must import about $1 trillion of foreign capital every year or more than $4 billion every working day." -

The Peterson Institute for International Economics

Homes are foreclosing at a record rate, gas prices have skyrocketed, The nation's capitol has more inmates in our jails than students in colleges, IndyMac, one of our countries largest lenders has failed and the government take over is estimated at 8 billion dollars. Jobs are disappearing, food prices are up, and record numbers are on some form of government food assistance, housing or unemployment. Let's not even get in to our environment.

These are hard times. A time when there is a need for new leadership. Enter the Democrats, with an opportunity to almost literally run the board. When I say run the board, I am saying, The House, The Senate, The White House, Governorships, and yes even Mayoral elections. That's how bad it is out there. That is how badly America and the world wants a fresh start. What are the Democrats doing? The Democrats are still holding on to wounds opened during a primary season as if that were the big election. As if they have actually won something. They have a presumptive nominee crisscrossing the country because of political sour grapes, trying to woo and convince another Democrat's donor's that they, after all, are all Democrats, even as some of them start negative 527s against him. He's hearing through back channels that a former Democratic President is going to make him beg for his support, he hears, on air and directly, from the lips of another Democrat that he would like to cut his n---s off. The candidate himself is inexplicably moving to the center when all he had to do was stay the course. Again, what are the Democrats doing? I have never seen anyone have it so good... and act so sad.

The Digital Politic
http://www.digitalpolitic.com

Jim

The novelty of Obama is wearing thin. Obama is a left wing politician in a center-right country with a thin resume on top of that. Not exactly a recipe for victory in November.

Nobody likes McCain, but everybody can live with him. That's how he won the primary and that's how he will become President.

McCain is running a terrible campaign, but it doesn't matter. The election isn't about him.

Verity

BUZZARDS KORNER - If you imagine the way to entice British bloggers to read (or at least start) your post is aggressive use of random capital letters, I would guess you have never been out of the United States in your life. Indeed, I would doubt that you have been out of your home state.

I would narrow it down further, except you've probably been out of your home city because you like that gal in the Dairy Queen on HiWay Whatever.

FIFO.

Ganpat Ram

Ann:

I am jealous of you for getting ahead of me in explaining that there is all the difference in the world between a Leftist (an honourable thing to be - I am one) and a Leftoid like Obama.

Leftists are progressive and principled. They oppose Western imperialism but also Islamic imperialism. They oppose South African apartheid but also Stalinism. They support autonomy for Tibet but also Israel's right to live in peace. They are watchful against American oil-grabbing in Iraq but are also grateful the US is there to protect the Kurds.

Leftists are decent and humane.

Leftoids are highly indecent and callous people.

They oppose Western imperialism but cosy up to the far more cruel imperialism and bigotry of Islam. They gang up with Stalinism in China and Serbia and Nepal and India. They talk of women's rights but leave Muslim women out of it.

Ken Livingstone is a good example of a Leftoid. George Galloway is an extreme example. Most of the "liberal-Labour" crowd belong to various shades of Leftoidism.

Obama is a Chicago political crook who chimesin with Leftoidism whenever he can. If he has to plat the "moderate" Western card he will. Getting into the Oval Office is his first criterion.

James, TX

Am surprised by all the ignorant "happy" comments popping up, they're just funny. You guys seem to forget that national polls never count,..this is not Zimbabwe... this is America and it's all about the electoral vote. Some of the arguements are far more interesting because they sound like Hillary's "i have the popular vote" nonsense which never got her anywhere. Remember Al Gore?...yah that guy...he won the popular vote too.

ohemingway

Dems win either way. McCain is a moderate Dem and Obama is a liberal Dem. The main point to consider is that the conservative revolution is over.

Carter Nicholas, Charlottesville

Obama has trashed his standing among the gullible to seduce the skeptical. He has shown that his style of conciliation is capitulation, and people have begun to notice that this means he offers no change they can believe in. Not a handy way to prepare for combat. But Obama has shown himself not merely too fastidious for that; he has shown himself unable to endure it. What's left of his legitimacy is a genetic accident he has also done his best to flee. At Obama's present rate of surrender, McCain will win by default.

MJC

Those saying that Obama is an idiot are right on the money.

I have a very liberal friend who dragged me to an Obama rally back in winter.
The guy gives a great stump speech. The minute the speech is over he can't answer even the softest softball question posed by the most supportive democrat with any authority.

It's all stuttering and stumbling, along with protestations of "being tired".

McCain wasn't my first choice for president but I will take the tested war hero over the
false Messiah any day

Knowbody

Why was everybody discrediting Newsweek when Obama was up only to shower them with slurpy kisses when the lead closed. Polls will come and go, but the dynamic hasn't changed. Obama will be our next President.

Meg

The Dems can still fix it by nominating HRC- she wouldwin hands down.

Cara88

Hopefully as people see more and more of Obama, they realize he's not any different that a typical politician. In fact, he's more shrewd and slimy.

www.hellnobama.com

Ann

It's not interesting at all, John K, because it's not the case that people didn't believe the 15%. You just made it up.

Not so fast

Well, according to this poll the american electorate has as many republicans as democrats, so it would be wise to not read to much in to it, it is probably not correct anyway. When you poll a country of 300 million + inhabitants with about 1000 respondents this is what you get, and it has as much value as putting a wet finger up to see which way the wind is blowing. More of interest should be the polling in individual states, and this seems to be going Obama's way for the time being. If you want to want to see the state of the race check out sites like electionprojection.com or electoral-vote.com. The national polls are close to worthless with their ridicolusly small samples and disregard for the electoral college, which is the count that actually matters.

Frederik

Newsweek's poll sample heavily favored the GOP this time around.

In one poll, which Newsweek did in June, the electorate is split R26/D38/I36. In the other poll, which Newsweek did a few weeks later, that country's electorate is split R32/D32/I36.

In the poll in June, 84% of the electorate is white. In the other poll a few weeks later, 88% of the electorate is white.

In one poll in June, 19% of the registered voters are under 40, 39% are between 40 and 59, and 42% are 60 or older. In the other polled a few weeks later, only 17% of the registered voters are under 40, 38% are between 40 and 59, and 45% are 60 or older.

In the younger, slightly more racially diverse and much more Democratic poll from June, Barack Obama was supposedly leading by 15 points. In the poll that is somewhat older, is somewhat whiter, and is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, Barack Obama is supposedly leading McCain by only 3 points.

Polls need to be taken by a grain of salt and you need to carefully compare the internals.

Mountain Mama

Obama is in deep doo doo already. Nobody is counting the number of people who tell pollsters they will vote for a inexperienced silver-tongued black man, but know they won't. We could see this coming.

Owen from Princeton

Here in New Jersey, when the Democrat Toricelli was losing his Senate race, the Dems simply dumped him 30 days before the election and ran a former Senator who won. I can't wait to be the fly on the wall when the dems realize that it's either dump Obama or lose.

Volunteer

The electorate is getting the word via the net as to who will actually sit in the Oval Office seat of power, certainly not Mr. O if he should succeed Pres. Bush.
end

John

Before getting carried away with euphoria the writer should perhaps take a closer look at the fundamentals of this poll. Even Newsweek was backpedalling a bit on its significance because of sample weighting. My personal belief is Americans are not too focussed on the election yet because it's high summer but this is going to start changing after the convention. In the meantime there is a continuing blizzard of bad economic news and an overwhelming weariness with Bush and a desire to be rid of all his works. At this stage these sort of polls don't mean much what's more important are the mood polls. McCain is the best candidate the Republicans could come up with although it's causing some stresses in their own camp. That said his performance so far looks incredibly tired and with his chief economic adviser the multi millionaire Gramm telling Americans they are whiners it doesn't help. So far I've seen nothing that tells me McCain has a snowball in hells chance of winning this.

Verity

Ganpat Ram bores us with a stream of what he imagines to be desirable traits of the Left, one of which is, " They support autonomy for Tibet but also Israel's right to live in peace."

Never mind the strange conjunction in there - "but" also Israel's right to live in peace? How do these two statements conflict so that they need a "but"?

Anyway, that's by the way. Ganpat Ram unwittingly illustrates one of the more loathesome aspects - and they are legion - of the Left, with the first part of his sentence: " They support autonomy for Tibet...".

So the preachy Left knows better what's desirable for Tibet than the Dalai Lama, do they? It doesn't surprise me, but I wish to God these people would shut up and slink away quietly to enjoy their ignorance in private.

The Dalai Lama does not want autonomy for Tibet. He wants cultural and religious autonomy. He says China has raised the standard of living in Tibet and he wouldn't want to relinquish that. If you live with the fierce, bitter winds on the snow-covered peaks of the Himalayas, it must be nice to have glass in your windows, for example.

At least Ganpat Ram recognises that Obama is an old-style, corrupt Chicago politician. Many here do not.

MJC - Thanks for that personal insight. It doesn't surprise me that he can't think on his feet. He's an actor. He needs lines.

I think you're largley right, Meg, when you suggest that the Dems could fix the decline by running Hillary. I'm a Republican sympathiser, but having Hillary in the White House would not scare me rigid. However, the one thing that could hold her back is, there are hundreds of thousands of Dems who do not want to see Bill Clinton back in the White House.

Ann

"They support autonomy for Tibet but also Israel's right to live in peace"

There is nothing decent or humane in that 'but'. It is as patronising towards Jews as leftists have always been. It may not be as racist as Jew-hatred, but it is still racist.

The Dalai Lama does not speak for all Tibetans. Some of them want not just autonomy but independence, and they are 100% justified in wanting that. China is an imperialist coloniser.

Ganpat Ram

Vwrity:

It's very easy to deal with your criticism of my views.

According to the new useful terminlogy I borrowed from Ann, you are clearly a Leftoid rather than a Leftist - sympathising with the totalitarian tyranny of China. That's the trouble with leftoids - their leftwing tendencies get corrupted by their weakness for tyranny. As the Romans wisely said: The worst thing is the corruption of the best.

As for Ann's surprising attack on me - I am truly baffled. I fail to see how supporting Israel's right to live in peace constitutes racism toward Jews. I imagine Israelis and most Jews would be equally baffled.

I am amused as well as baffled.

To be accused of anti-Semitism of all things !

When I am so pro-Jewish and pro-Israel, and prove to my Jewish friends so much more knowledgeable about the ins and outs of Israeli history than they that they have suspected me of being an Indian Jew !

Ganpat Ram

Other than Ann, the guy I was addressing in my last e-mail was Verity.

JohnB

Here we go again. It'll be defeat from the jaws of victory as the Democrats once more nominate a loser. Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry . . . Obama.
Makes you realise just what a phenomenon ol' Bill Clinton was to win two terms.
When McCain wins in Novemner - not by much, I grant you -the wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the Dem faithful will be pitiful to behold. Could Hillary have won ? Probably.
Makes you wonder if they really want it.

Alex

Why is this news? There are many publicised polls for the US Geneneral election.

There is one showing McCain and Obama level: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

PS. Has nobody at the Spectator been vetting some of these ridiculous comments / threads?

Verity

Ganpat Ram - You haven't been paying attention. I am to the right of Ronald Reagan.

Ann - Tibetans will not go against the Dalai Lama. If he judges that complete autonomy for Tibet would be bad for Tibetans, they will trust that he knows. Tibetan Buddhism is an intuitive religion.

Ganpat Ram, drivelling on ... you will have to come to terms with the fact that China is now very powerful economically. That it has a political system you don't agree with is outrageous, of course, but I don't believe they will alter it for you.

Again, it is China's power that makes a formal declaration - in some form or other - I have asked for suggestions - of the Anglosphere imperative.

China can be our friend or our enemy. If we are strong, they will be our friend. If we are weak, they will be an aggressor.

RMH

Nice to see the lunatics are foaming at the mouth and are out of the asylum.

Obama has a clear lead over McCain, when you look at the state by state picture.

About 320 to 220 in vote terms where it matters, ie the electoral college.

Yet we get james F reporting singular polls as if they are paradigm shifts across the who country.

We all know he is a foam at the mouth republican and is appealing to what seems the foam at the mouth base reading the spectator. Seems like gun loving, womens rights hating, support the rich policies are all the rage here.

And those who have been damaged by 8 year of Bush get ignored, as teh rhetoric does not suit the writer.

THX1138

I have reading up on this poll on www.fivethirtyeight.com your deluding yourselves if you take & comfort from these numbers. Obama is well on track in the electoral college numbers.

I would expect a McCain bump in a national poll, he has after all run three times the number of Ads just to keep in touching distance.

Ganpat Ram

Verity:

I did overlook your eralier mails. Sorry.

The Chinesse regime is indeed powerful and will not change at my behest. Neither did the Nazis, alas. But that doesn't mean I didn't keep my own moral perspectives on the Nazis and will drop them with regard to the Chinese.

We need to negotiate and keep strong. Agreed. But people in the West won't agree to keep strong vis-a-vis China if they are not told it is a threat.

Going on to more immediate matters.

Obama in my estimation will easily and regrettably win this election if McCain fails soon to tell Republicans: "I am not a conventional conservative. You have heard I am a centrist with a lot in common with Democrats. YOU ARE RIGHT. But unless you want Obama, a long-time Black Power ideologue, you had better turn out to elect me. Conventional Republicanism has zero chances this year."

Ganpat Ram

Nothing shows the puerility of the media than their awe of this unintelligent clown Obama's speechifying propensity.

It is not as though he were a genuinely eloquent speaker like Churchill or Trotsky. Those figures had the atmosphere of historical greatness around them. Obama merely regurgitates cheap US identity-bitching cliches interspersed with windy, emotional phrases modelled on trashy self-help books (YOU CAN DO IT IF YOU TRY etc) and Time Magazine end-of-year essays by that organ's resident Senior Writer Mediocrity "Sunday worship is America's most segregated hour" etc).

But certainly he speaks better than the average plastic-chicken-circuit US politico.

Yet common sense should have warned Americans against any politician who talks well. That is almost always the sign that he is going to prove an egoistic disaster in office.

In very very rare, desperate circumstances, a great speaker might do a useful job of morale-boosting: danton in the French Revolution, Trotsky in the Russian Revolution, and Churchill in 1940 are the best examples.

Other than that, the world's fine political talkers have brought misery. Think of all the "great" leaders of Third World nationalism: Nehru, Sukarno, Sekou Toure, Nasser, Kenyatta...all were powerful speakers who messed up their countries catastrophically.

A plain, unpretentious non-orator like Lee Kuan Yew by contrast lifted his nation out of its wretchedness by steady sensible work.

No: the gift of tounges is to be feared like the plague, in politics. Never entrust an orator with serious administrative responsibility (Trotsky, who created the Red Army, was the exception). The British booted Churchill out of office as soon as the war was over. Very sensible.
Oratoriacl ability and administrative efficiency hardly ever go together.

The poor Americans will learn this the hard way with Obama, that master of shabby third-rate rhetoric.

Verity

Well, Ganpat Ram, to my suprise, I thoroughly enjoyed your post.

Obama is fine with prepared speeches, but he cannot speak extemporaneously. For anyone who has ever heard Jesse Jackson - in his younger days before he got comfy on the race bandwagon - speak on the hoof, Obama is just a puppet. Obama doesn't have the gift. He's an actor.

Your perceptions on most political speakers of talent is an interesting observation. I'm not interested in any of the African ones, but certainly, Nehru was a wonderful, inspirational speaker - "Freedom at midnight"! What a phrase! And what a disaster the man turned out to be for India. As did his daughter. Only now is India bounding ahead when it should be one of the two most powerful economies in the world by now.

LKY is a powerful speaker precisely because he doesn't use fancy, imaginative phrasing. Every sentence speaks of pragmatism and that is a strength. Singapore's current PM, Lee Hsien-Loong also speaks thusly.

Your points are very well taken.

Ganpat Ram

Verity:

Glad to have pleased you for once!

The contrast between Nehru and Lee Kuan Yew is indeed striking and instructive. A couple of years ago Lee opened a big conference in India by citing from Nehru's famous Independence speech:

"Long years ago we made a tryst with destiny, and now the time comes when we shall redeem our pledge, not wholly or in full measure, but very substantially. At the stroke of the midnight hour, when the world sleeps, India will awake to life and freedom. A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends, and when the soul of a nation, long supressed, finds utterance. It is fitting that at this solemn moment we take the pledge of dedication to the service of Inida and her people and to the still larger cause of humanity."

Lee shook his head sadly and said: "You really have to hand it to Nehru: I never could do thrilling stuff like that!"

Yet where is Singapore and where is India? As you said, India is opnly just beginning to get moving.

No wonder I distrust fine political rhetoricians.

I got a bad feeling about about Obama when he confessed during one of his debates with Clinton: "I'm terrible at paperwork"......!

Well, we shall see. It will be interesting to watch this dangerous clown's progress (for I do think he will win) in company with perceptive observers like yourself.

Verity

Ganpat Ram - I've seen the old news film of Nehru making that speech, and it is just so dramatic. Also, if I recall correctly, wasn't he standingn on the ramparts of the Red Fort? Or was he standing on something high in the Rathpath? Anyway what a dramatic moment.

Yet LKY has changed the world, and Nehru didn't. LKY is now the most respected and trusted man in Asia. He advises both India and China on their route to development.

It was he who advised the Chinese to get their infrastructure down before starting to sell to the world. He had noted that Indian infrastructure wasn't sufficient for international trade, and that they had let a lot of it run down.

Ever a pragmatic Chinese, the infrastructure was the first thing he tackled when he became Singapore's first prime minister, after it was kicked out of the Malay Federation. For years now, the Port of the little tiny city-state of Singapore is the world's third largest, after New York and Rotterdam. It works round the clock, 365 days a year. After Houston, it is the world's biggest oil refinery. And still the harbour is littered with tankers incurring demurrage. It is breathtaking.

Singapore - population less than 5m - has one of the best equipped and best trained militaries in the world. (Of course,the Indian military is nothing to sneeze at either!)

These are all reasons to bind the Anglosphere together formally. To meet the challenge of China to prosper peacefully.

And he did all this without ever giving one fancy speech.

Back on topic, I don't think Obama will win this election. Voters are dropping away from him. That cover on the New Yorker, the voice of the urban left, should make an impression. The Dems may panic and name Hillary anyway. She would beat McCain.

RMH

Lets just remember what a numpty McCain will be.

Short tempered, rude, obstinate, and plain angry most of the time.

Just what we want, another half witted man in the White House.

Verity

RMH - The Dems still have the option of running Hillary. She'd win. And she doesn't frighten Republicans. Indeed, I think she would get a tranche of the Republican vote from people who share your views on McCain.

I'd rather see a Republican in the White House, but Hillary wouldn't scare me to death.

Obama's an egotistical nut job. He's going to give a speech in front of the Brandenberg Gate (which I am sure he had never heard of until an aide mentioned it). Why? What announcement does he have to make that would affect Europe, given he is only a politician running for office - not a head of government. He's probably going to go over with "a message of hope" - that sounds trite enough for Obama - although hope for what, given that the EUSSR is in charge of its own destiny, who knows?

He's a sleazy opportunist. A typical product of the Chicago political mafia. I would also be interested in reading what role Chicago-based Oprah Winfrey has played in all this.

Ganpat Ram

Verity:

The Red Fort scene you remember connected with Indian Independence was not in fact the occasion of the famous "Freedom at Midnight" speech by Nehru. It was the lowering of the Union Jack before a delirious crowd.....sensationally historic indeed, given India was THE great centrepiece of the British Empire.

The "Midnight" speech had been given in the Constituent Assembly.

I was fascinated by your gen on Singapore, a country whose incredible record of economic growth has long impressed me. AM i right that it has a bigger trade with the US than Italy? I remember reading this.

The Singaporeans took the right path, back in the 1960s. They saw through all the fashiobnable, raging cliches of anti-Americanism whioch sadly seduced the Indians and still has so many of them in their deadly grip. The current desperate struggle by the Indian government to get the nuclear deal with the US passed in a fractious Parliament is part of the bitter struggle of Indian intellectuals (mnay of them) to hang on to an anti-Americanism that is totally inmical to India's interests, especially today. I believe the US and India will become good friends and allies. They have no other choice, really. I deeply respect China and the Chinese - they deserve propsperity, because no nation has suffered more or worked harder - but the world does need some strong safeguards against too great power in Beijing's hands - which would be bad for the Chinese, too.