Poll has Labour 14 points ahead in Glasgow East
James Forsyth 7:19pm
Gordon Brown’s effort to give up biting his nails just received a boost with the release of an ICM poll of Glasgow East which shows Labour 14 points ahead, 47 to 33 ahead of the SNP. This poll will create a strong expectation that Labour will hold the seat and probably put a stop to—or at least reduce—speculation about a challenge to Brown following a defeat here. However—as Anthony Wells points out—polling a constituency like Glasgow East is a phenomenally difficult task. It is also worth noting that the SNP has almost doubled its support in the seat since the last election which suggests that things will tighten further as the campaign goes on.
If Labour does hold Glasgow East, the next test for Brown is going to be the gap between Labour and the Tories after the conference season. A Tory poll lead of more than 15 percent is going to give added impetus to all the chatter about a possible challenge to Brown.
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Tina
July 12th, 2008 10:02pm Report this commentNothing highlights the state of the Labour party more than this. The fact that they are fourteen points ahead in a constituency where they used to be over 40 points ahead, and is a place considered their 'heartland' and 'bedrock' of support. WHEN they win Glasgow East it will mean nothing, it's not a general election indicator. Even under Kinnock, Foot etc they've held Glasgow East. Southern England and the Midlands marginals will decide the next general.
David Lindsay
July 12th, 2008 11:17pm Report this commentI loathe the SNP. I know that several of them are lovely people. Why, even my own late father was an SNP Councillor in the Sixties. But as a party, their single reason for existing is utterly abhorrent to me.
Yet if Labour were to lose Glasgow East to them, then it could only fight back as the party of social justice and wealth redistribution, of the Union, and of an undisputed commitment to Catholic schools. New Labour simply cannot be that party.
The way would be cleared for the re-emergence of a party which cannot be otherwise.
John de Finchley
July 12th, 2008 11:21pm Report this commentI hope the Tories in Glasgow are out in force campaigning for Labour. At all costs, Broon must stay to lead Labour to final and permanent defeat at the next election.
Broon is the Tories' greatest asset since Neil Kinnock.
Dora
July 13th, 2008 1:11am Report this commentBrown must stay. I want to see him face the fury of the electorate at the ballot box in two years.
David
July 13th, 2008 2:26am Report this commentTina is right on the money. Labour are clutching at straws and yet will announce every scraped victory as a triumph. The latest YouGov puts them 22 points behind the Tories.
Marian C
July 13th, 2008 10:13am Report this commentTina; I totally agree with your comments.
I also agree with John de Finchley; yes the longer Broon stays the better it will be for the Tories.
David C
July 13th, 2008 10:45am Report this commentJohn:
Labour 'died' a long time ago.
NuLabour is not the old party repackaged or reborn. NuLabour is a different party with different core beliefs. The eighteen years out of power; the fights against the SDP and Militant, the death of John Smith, they all helped to cut the party off from its past and destroy 'old Labour'.
The 'pied piper of Sedgefield' and the 'numpty from Kirkcaldy' are joint architects of something that would have the Labour Founding Fathers foaming at the mouth.
There is a name for the party they have created, but it is a name that carries so much baggage that the idea, once voiced, becomes risible and is dismissed.
When the snake oil salesman quit, Brown climbed out of his hidey-hole in the treasury to take the wheel. Suddenly there were no more winning smiles or ‘aww schucks’ speeches, and people started to see NuLabour for what it is and what it has done.
Mike Stallard
July 13th, 2008 8:04pm Report this commentYup, OK.
Here is what Cameron's Tories will have to do:
1. Face up to the national debt. At the moment it is about 3% of GDP. It amounts to no less than two year's net income for the government.
2. Face up to the welfare state where, in East Glasgow, half the people are hereditary dole receivers. More or less everywhere else, it stands at about one in four.
3. Face up to the EU which has wrecked our justice system, our immigration control and which is affecting the War on Terror.
4. Face up to the rapid splintering of our little country where regionalism is running amok.
5. Do something about bringing the Police back on the streets away from their cosy, safe little offices.
Can he do this? Will he do this? What do you think?
That is the huge question. We all know Brown is useless.
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