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Sunday, 13th July 2008

Another big Tory poll lead

James Forsyth 12:28pm

The latest YouGov poll for The Sunday Times shows no change in the Labour and Tory numbers—the Tories are still 22 points  ahead, 47 to 25. The good news for the Tories is that the longer this lead remains stable, the more voters will adjust to the idea of a Tory government.

The leadership speculation is relatively muted this weekend. In his Telegraph column, Matt pours some cold water over the idea that Brown might face a serious challenge soon:

"To return to the PM's question: what does his survival tell us? First, that the Labour party are a bunch of wimps. Boy, they all talk the talk about getting rid of Mr Brown. Do they ever. There is no shortage of half-baked schemes to expedite his departure from Number 10: a convenient prime ministerial illness, a delegation of carefully selected Cabinet Ministers forcing his hand, even - quite absurdly - the suggestion that his wife be somehow co-opted to the Gordon Must Go campaign.

Actually, the last proposal tells you all you need to know about the mutineers. When a regicidal plot is so feeble that it relies upon the putative collaboration of the king's (famously devoted) spouse, you know he does not have much to worry about yet." 

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David C

July 13th, 2008 2:00pm Report this comment

I tend to concur with Jackie Ashley's interpretation of events.
Two weeks ago she described the Labour Party as 'Clinically Depressed'.
They are enervated.
Mr d'Ancona seems to think that Labour will stage some sort of fightback to victory. First, they have to fight.

I suggest that after '10p Tax', 'Northern Rock', '42 Days' and now 'VED', the primary target for a Labour Party fightback resides in No.10. But I doubt it will take place, if at all, until the last moment, when the party realises it is drowning in the polls.
The next two years will not be pleasant as Brown rams through irrevocable changes to the country. Some posters here suspect it will be 'scorched earth' politics. I think I agree.

Fergus Pickering

July 13th, 2008 5:03pm Report this comment

But Matt does tend to be wrong about nearly everything, doesn't he? He got Iraq wrong. He thought Blair was the best thing since sliced bread. He backed Brown to be a strong leader. He thinks that Brown is an idealistic man of principle. Where does that come from? You make a bunch of speeches about African children. You tell us Mugabe's a bad person. Yeah, right. Brown is a man who never got over being a clever sixteen year old. Like Peter Pan he never grew up. At least that's my take on him and just as likely as Matt's. He's right about the wimps, but who doesn't know that?

Laura

July 13th, 2008 8:40pm Report this comment

Good to see Matt championing Labour again, not!

TrevorH

July 13th, 2008 10:23pm Report this comment

"Matt" is it now?

Brown may survive because the Labour Party are clueless (after all they appointed him unopposed and they sat through 11 budgets completely ignorant and indifferent to their consequences.

But for Brown to stage a 'fightback' would requite 90% of the country to be lobotomised. Given that the state of the NHS after 11 years of labour is such that expectant mothers are suffering such shambolic care that even 'The Sun' has noticed,
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article725154.ece
then I suspect that the resources to do this are not available.

Someone tell 'Matt' that the nation has has its epiphany. Efforts by Brown and others to persuade us otherwise carry all the believability of an advert for wrinkle cream.

DM

July 14th, 2008 10:32am Report this comment

The electorate has had enough of Brown and his incompetence. He has been landed on us, and we don't like him and what he's doing. It's that simple.
As for the Labour party - they lack the ruthlesness and courage to get rid of him. They know he's a liability, but still they cannot bring themselves to do anything. They are spineless and self-interested. They play for time, hoping and hoping. And for those reasons, the rest of us are stuck with this crew until they are forced to call an election.

DM

July 14th, 2008 12:32pm Report this comment

oops - ruthlessness.

Alex

July 14th, 2008 1:21pm Report this comment

So the question is, how do the Conservatives push themselves above the 50% mark, and really cement their position (as Labour frequently achieved in opposition before 1997)? Or, is this not possible?

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