Glasgow East: still difficult to call
James Forsyth 5:16pm
The news that Pete just posted about how the odds on Labour winning Glasgow East have shortened is, perversely, bad news for Gordon Brown. Labour holding Glasgow East is now priced into Brown’s share price and so he’ll get no bounce from Labour avoiding defeat. However, if the SNP were to pull off a spectacular upset it will be an even bigger story for everyone having written off their chances.
Personally, I’m extremely dubious of anyone predicting the result from Glasgow East with any certainty. By-elections are notoriously hard to call and the social make-up of the constituency makes this one particularly hard to predict. Mike Smithson, the genius behind Political Betting, says that he’ll be staying out of the betting market until the polling stations have opened.
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Comments
Trumpeter Lanfried
July 22nd, 2008 6:50pmI seem to remember reading that bookies' odds are a better predictor of election results than opinion polls. Is this true?
Icarus
July 22nd, 2008 6:59pmErr not quite!
"I rate it as about evens for for both the SNP and Labour and have just bet nearly £300."
by Mike Smithson July 22nd, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Silent Hunter
July 22nd, 2008 8:35pmIf Labour win; then the folk of Glasgow East deserve everything they're going to get from New Labour piloting it's 'new benefits' rules and exciting new 'workhouse ethics' in the area.
That's right Glasgow East......they were saving it as a surprise for you all ......for 'after' the by-election.
If they vote for the SNP......it will kill both of these two Labour initiatives......stone dead.
Their choice!
John
July 23rd, 2008 9:44amYou mean 'doubtful', not 'dubious'.