The latest from Glasgow East
Fraser Nelson 2:13pm
Conventional wisdom is that Labour will win by a small majority tomorrow in Glasgow East. But isn't a prediction of winning by a few hundred the equivalent of saying "too close to call"? A friend of mine, a former SNP by-election candidate, calls in with a few thoughts:
1. Word is that David Marshall had zero data on his voters, no canvass returns or anything. He took the seat so much for granted that he didn't need to. I can believe this - I have heard worse from Labour rotten boroughs where the party organisation has atrophied.
2. The SNP are apparently very pleased with their campaign - ie, even if they get spanked, they believe their organisation hit the mark. So if the election is a matter of differential turnout, the nats will win.
3. It will be a low turnout, so we may get the result quite early on tomorrow.
4. After all that palarva, the Labour candidate, Margaret Curran MSP, has been quite decent. If they do win, Gordon Brown has her to thank.
And the implications for Brown if Labour lose? As so often, Ben Brogan put it best ages ago. The damage done to Brown has already been done, and having a majority fall from 13,507 to 2,000 - if he is very lucky - represents a swing which, if repeated nationwide, would see at least half of Labour MPs lose their seat. So victory in Glasgow East will be a misleading sort of comfort. And precisely the sort of comfort which the Tories want Labour to be offered. Brown is David Cameron's top recruiting sergeant - the Tory message, as Cameron said in last wekk's PMQs, is "vote blue and get rid of this useless Prime Minister". That's why both Labour and Tories will be praying for an SNP defeat tomorrow.
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Comments
kinglear
July 23rd, 2008 2:56pmThe real disgrace is not so much the Labour taking for granted, its the approach that nothing can really change. Even some half decent ideas and proper encouragement would improve things here.
Tom Miller
July 23rd, 2008 3:45pmI'd be looking at a bigger majority than that, Fraser.
Faceless Bureaucrat
July 23rd, 2008 4:16pmInterestingly Fraser, if the SNP do manage to pull-off a historic and unexpected triumph in Glasgow East tomorrow and swiftly implement some eye-catching policies locally that improve the lives and surroundings of the inhabitants of that blighted area, we could witness the beginning of a ‘domino effect’ in other similar inner-city conurbations north of the border. Glasgow East has been a Labour ‘stronghold’ for as long as anyone can remember – as such, the inhabitants have never experienced what another Party might be able to offer in terms of local regeneration and upgrading. Any Party that delivers even a minor improvement on the appalling social environment that you described to Coffee House posters recently would find itself compared favourably with the previous decades of Labour neglect. Additionally, there are rumours about additional revelations regarding the past conduct of David Marshall about to surface, which could further affect the Labour turn-out. A victory for the SNP could see Labour’s hegemony in Scotland collapse like a house of cards and the SNP rising as the dominant force across both the major cities of Scotland and beyond. Not good news for the Conservatives, but conceivably the beginning of the end of the Labour Party (and Socialism?) as we know it.
Edward Rivers
July 23rd, 2008 4:42pmThe implications for Brown will indeed be bad. However there is a case to be made that the conservatives would benefit from a Brown which remains an empty vessel until the next election. Losing Glasgow East would be the final signal to the Labour Party that Brown is doing them no favours. Like the Allies in 1944 it was not necessary to kill off Hitler to replace him with a new German leader with his head fixed on right. It is the same case for the conservatives, it would not benefit them to have a new Labout MP who was more in touch with party, people and policy
Trumpeter Lanfried
July 23rd, 2008 5:01pmSuppose you lived on one of the sink estates in Glasgow East and managed to get a decent job. What would be your top priority? Surely, move somewhere else.
Is this not happening already? If so, the population of such estates (and similar hell holes) will increasingly comprise those who lack the energy or intelligence to move away - sometimes through no fault of their own.
So the problem will get worse, year by year.
Silent Hunter
July 23rd, 2008 6:25pmAre the people of Glasgow East likely to vote for another Labour MP; given that all the last Labour MP did, was to line his own pockets with £500,000 whilst his constituents continued to live in penury.
If they do vote for Labour.....then they deserve everything they're going to get from the piloting of New Labours Workhouse Ethics in Glasgow.
They have an opportunity to make history........or........to simply vote for the same old, same old and stay in exactly the same place and state where they've been for 11 years of Labour inaction.
Lets hope that they're not as stupid as to vote for some one who has lived in a £600,000 villa in Newlands for 20 years......oh! that's right!
I forgot! Apparently she's lived in Glasgow East....."all her life"
Yeah!........just another New Labour porkie.
Labour Member
July 23rd, 2008 7:11pmIs this not happening already? If so, the population of such estates (and similar hell holes) will increasingly comprise those who lack the energy or intelligence to move away - sometimes through no fault of their own.
Ah, traditional Tory values we know and love.
Trumpeter Lanfried
July 23rd, 2008 7:38pmLabour member @7.1 PM. I am not inviting you to like me. The question is, Do you disagree with my analysis? And if not, why not?
Trumpeter Lanfried
July 23rd, 2008 9:16pmSorry, that should have read, 'Do you agree with my analysis and if not why not?'
Silent Hunter
July 23rd, 2008 9:43pmLabour Member:
Actually, if you read more than one blog, you may well find the post by the Glasgow Taxi driver who said that he and his wife saved up and as soon as they could.....they moved out of the Glasgow East constituency.....for the sake of their son.
So Trumpeter Lanfried does make a fair point.
Maybe you could supply the counter argument rather than snide comments........unless of course, you're blogging from the Labour Party Bunker. LOL
Pete, Scotland
July 23rd, 2008 11:42pmSilent Hunter
July 23rd, 2008 6:25pm
Actually they are and they will.
Classic socialist dumbing down of a population, makes them maleable and dependent.
Just watch how many people vote for the very same party that condoned the previous MP's alleged huge expenses whilst quite happily had no interest in the poverty of the voters they represented.
Many of the voters in this area don't make connections, they just vote Labour.
Labour are the socialist party that looks after them (booze, fags, kids & pays the bills).
Why should they vote for a party that takes that away?
In many cases, that's the bottom line!
wxalexander
July 24th, 2008 8:45amTheir forebearers voted Labour in 1707. Why should they change?
Big Alec
July 24th, 2008 10:56amI can't believe the level of hatred on this site aimed at people on benfits like me. I can't work because of my health. I have weight problems, mental health issues, and have problems with my breathing. I admit I do enjoy the odd fag which probably doesnt help but its my only luxury in life. I vote labour because they care about people like me - they dont judge me because i'm heavy, smoke and dont work. some of the people on here should go and live in nazi germany. I agree with 'Labour Member'. Ten years of tory misrule under thatcher destroyed the lives of people like me.
Trumpeter Lanfried
July 24th, 2008 2:09pmWe don't hate you, Big Alec. Like Labour Member, you are too quick to think ill of us.
Can't you understand that we Tories have the same aspirations as the Labour party? We too want a prosperous, healthy, well educated society, with the lowest possible levels of crime, poverty and unemployment. But we do not believe that the Labour Party knows how to achieve those ends. They screw up, big time, because their remedies are the wrong remedies, they are spendthrift and they lack the basic competence which is needed to run the country.
Don
July 24th, 2008 3:08pm"Ten years of tory misrule under thatcher destroyed the lives of people like me."
And 11 years of Labour rule have improved it how. They have been in longer than the Tories you so hystericaly hate.
Mike, Brighton
July 24th, 2008 8:46pmBig Alec: "I have weight problems, mental health issues, and have problems with my breathing. I admit I do enjoy the odd fag which probably doesnt help but its my only luxury in life."
Sure, the welfare state is designed to help people like you but should be structured to help you lose weight, address your mental health issues and other health issues. Designed to get you off your bum and back into work and contributing to the society that has kindly been supporting you.
Labour just wants your vote and couldn't give a toss about you beyond subsidising you in poverty to keep you voting for sugar daddy Brown.
We Tories want you to get off your bum and work, making yourself and society richer. If you don't like it, tough.