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Thursday, 24th July 2008

Obama is dominating the news but still hasn't pulled out of sight in the polls

James Forsyth 6:11pm

As Barack Obama prepares for his speech in Berlin this evening, his campaign must be delighted with how his overseas tour has gone so far. Obama has got through the Afghan, Iraqi, Jordanian and Israeli legs of the trip without making any gaffes and has dominated the news coverage all week while the visuals have helped Obama in his quest to look presidential. However, two new polls out today show that McCain is hanging on in there.

In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, McCain trails by six points. In some respects, this is a comfortable lead for Obama but it is quite an achievement for McCain to be that close when only 13 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track, a record low. However, there is a huge enthusiasm gap with 44 percent of Obama supporters feeling excited about their candidate and 43 percent of McCain backers calling him the lesser of two evils. The extent to which the election is about Obama is illustrated by the fact that 51 percent of voters say they are mostly thinking about what kind of president Obama would be compared to just 27 percent who say the same of McCain.

The McCain camp, though, will take comfort from his continued lead on national security with McCain holding a 53 to 25 advantage on who would make the better commander in chief and a 46-28 lead on who would best handle the war in Afghanistan. However, the economy is still the top issue for voters and here the Democrats have a significant advantage.

Obama is still in the driving seat in this election. But the race is far from over. 

Another poll out today shows McCain running better in various key swing states. In Colorado, he had edged into a lead and in Michigan and Minnesota, both states Kerry won in 2004, McCain is only four points behind. Last month, the same poll had him down by 17 in Minnesota. 

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Comments Post comment

Ganpat Ram

July 25th, 2008 9:22am Report this comment

The more the media love-fests Obama the God, the better MCcain's cahnces.

It was the same with the Obama-Hillary race.

So keep going, Newsweek and the horde.

Ian C

July 25th, 2008 9:57am Report this comment

The over-exposure pill is about to start working. I did not see his speech last night but short of scoring a goal from 60 yards he is not able to put McCain away while the majority (Gallup) are still making their mind up about Obama (they know what they think about McCain). The longer this is an effective tie the less chance Obama has to win. He should be miles in front by now given the extra attention he has had.

THX1138

July 27th, 2008 11:01am Report this comment

James your cherry picking Polls again so I'm going too.

Rasmussen has a tie in Florida worth a cool 27 electoral votes much more important than the margin in national polls which downplay Obama anyway because of the cell phone effect.

http://tinyurl.com/3tz6pf

Unless someone gaffes it's now going to be about veeps & the conventions. John Edwards has been caught with his pants down so that must narrow the field yet again

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