Are the numbers against the would-be leaders?
Peter Hoskin 8:58am
In his victory speech a few hours ago, John Mason exclaimed that “this SNP victory is not just a political earthquake, it is off the Richter scale”. It's hard to disagree. After all, overturning a 13,507 majority is impressive stuff, whichever way you slice it. So impressive, in fact, that it can only reinforce the idea that pretty much any Labour seat is now a viable target for opposition parties.
Which creates a particularly nasty conundrum for Labour MPs. Ousting Brown will become increasingly attractive, as he leads them towards oblivion in 2010. But many of the names being bandied around to replace him have smaller majorities than that overturned by the SNP last night. Here's a selection of the would-be leaders, with their current majorities:
Jack Straw: 8,009
James Purnell: 8,348
Alan Johnson: 9.450
Ed Balls: 10,002
David Miliband: 12,312
Of course, this is a rather blunt way of looking at things – ideally, we should talk about swing, potential turnout etc. (and I'm sure a numbers genius like Mike Smithson at Political Betting would be able to provide that fuller account). But these figures will have Labour MPs sweating nonetheless. Appointing a new leader, only to see them get a general election kicking, would be a whole new embarrassment for them. And, oddly, it's one that they could potentially avoid by sticking with Brown. His majority of 18,216 suggests he may be one of the few Labour MPs whose seat is actually safe.
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David C
July 25th, 2008 10:01am Report this commentMy belief is that it is too late.
For the Labour Party, the deluge is almost upon them and anything they do now will be seen as panic.
The electorate has been provoked to a feeding frenzy.
When the 10p tax change fell apart, Brown and Darling cobbled together a fresh budget which was snapped up by people who then came back for more.
Next was the fuel duty rise which has been aborted, the motorist took this and pointed to the overall price of fuel and VED.
If the Labour Party throw Brown to the wolves,
Voters will see this as more appeasement from cowards who were afraid to act when it could have counted.
Kevyn Bodman
July 25th, 2008 10:23am Report this commentLabour are going to get a real pasting in the next General Election whoever leads them.
Backbenchers won't be looking at the current majorities of potential leaders; they'll be looking at their own individual majorities.
Adam Boulton made roughly this point on SkyNews this morning, MPs are not stupid. They know the party is going to get hammered; but they ,each and all, want a leader who gives them the best chance of holding on to their own seat.
That's why Brown is finished, because there are plenty of Labour MPs who think they've got no chance of retaining their seats with him, but MIGHT have a chance under someone else.
And what happens to that someone else after the election will not feature so strongly in their calculations; there is no chance of Labour winning overall but a new leader losing his own seat; there is no chance of Labour winning at all.
mark
July 25th, 2008 10:31am Report this commentStraw and Purnell are vulnerable on current opinion polls. The others are safe at present.
Bruce, UK
July 25th, 2008 11:20am Report this commentBrown will "retire" at the next election. You heard it here first. Even if you didn't - that's the beauty of spin.
M
July 25th, 2008 11:23am Report this commentAn interesting point, but the Coffee House duo seem to be working on the implausible assumption that by-election swings are repeated in general elections. That doesn't happen in real life.
The plotting over Brown will be fascinating, but bear in mind that Labour MPs fall into four categories, three of which have no personal incentive to ditch Brown.
First, there are the ones who will stand down at the next election - obviously they have no fear of losing their seats, since they are giving them up.
Second, there are the ones in safe seats - even if Labour suffer in 2010 as the Tories did in 1997, which is extremely unlikely, this group will still be in the 100s, and they also have no fear of losing their seats.
Third, there are the Labour MPs with such small majorities that they know they are doomed, even in a hung Parliament - if they push to replace Brown with someone more electable (Who He?), all they will achieve is reducing the margin of their defeat when they lose their seat.
So the main category of MP with a substantial, personal incentive to knife Brown is the group who would lose their seats under Brown, but could just scrape home and keep their jobs, John Lewis list and all, if Johnson/Milliband/Purnell limits the damage. This group probably numbers a few dozen.
Bear that in mind when you hear talk of Labour MPs plotting against Brown as a means of self-preservation in 2010.
One other thing - probably stating the obvious, but do we all agree that the Balls balls-up has ruled him out of the runnning for the leadership, at least this side of the General Election?
Teledu
July 25th, 2008 4:50pm Report this commentSome interesting months ahead; nice to see nuLabour squirming.
Balls was awful in the Commons the other day re. the ETS/SATS cock-up. Does this rule him out as a potential leadrship challenger?
What do the Trade Unions think?
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