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Friday, 25th July 2008

Schadenfreude but not much else for the Tories

Fraser Nelson 11:38am

Aside from schadenfreude, there is not much in the Glasgow East result to make David Cameron smile. It reminds us that what is happening nationally is a fury directed at Labour, not Obama style enthusiasm for the Tories. I had initially thought coming third was quite a result for Cameron but went to bed before calculating voting shares. As CoffeeHousers pointed out, Cameron has made no progress in Glasgow East with his 6% voting share unchanged. And that in spite of an excellent candidate.

Of course in these by-elections, voters wishing to stir things up pick the nearest stick to beat Labour with. In Dunfermline and West Fife, Brown's home seat, it was the Liberal Democrats not the SNP who trounced Labour and overturned an 11,000 majority. This time, the Lib Dems did just appallingly - and, again, with a good candidate. So whatever is going on here is a very strong anti-Labour - or, at the least, anti-Brown - sentiment.

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Faceless Bureaucrat

July 25th, 2008 12:12pm Report this comment

Mmmmm….

“It reminds us that what is happening nationally is a fury directed at Labour, not Obama style enthusiasm for the Tories.”

Valid point, Fraser – but to be fair, wasn’t Thatcher’s victory in 1979 also a result of that self-same ‘fury’ being directed at Labour? Despite that, I seem to recall she didn’t make a bad fist of leading the Country once elected.

The Conservatives should cease bothering with Scotland, since the SNP will continue to tighten its grip in the approach to the next General Election and will squeeze the Tory vote down to the level of ‘Others’. In any case, Scotland will be an independent Nation within a decade (the EU will see to that, whatever Gordon Brown says about ‘Britishness’), so where is the point in pouring campaign funds into a lost cause?

You are quite correct when you say “Of course in these by-elections, voters wishing to stir things up pick the nearest stick to beat Labour with.” As we both know, however, where Scotland is concerned that stick will never be the Conservatives.

PS: I thought you gave a good performance on the ‘Today’ programme this morning…

Tom

July 25th, 2008 12:13pm Report this comment

Do you think there is the slightest possibility that the word cam up from Conservative Central Office to the foot soldiers of Glasgow East, "Don't try to hard here lads - we won't be upset if the entirety of the anti-Labour protest votes goes to the SNP"....

Travis Bickle

July 25th, 2008 12:19pm Report this comment

So is the suggestion that Conservatives would have been happier with a 10% share of the vote and, as a result, Labour retaining the seat??

Let's face it hell will freeze over before the Tories win Glasgow East, ditto Labour take Henley..

TrevorH

July 25th, 2008 1:50pm Report this comment

I am reserving my 'Schadenfreude' for Michael Crick who only a few days ago was sagely informing us that there were no discernible signs of an upset.
He was in fact reduced to doorstepping the labour candidate and asking her about the activities of her predecessor.

Alex

July 25th, 2008 2:05pm Report this comment

This was always going to be a tight two horse race.

It that situation, it is simple, if you normally support AN Other party and have a brain, you vote tactically.

Peter Buss

July 25th, 2008 2:09pm Report this comment

The achievement surely was not to get squeezed in a 2 horse race - something the Libeals signally faild to do.

DW

July 25th, 2008 2:45pm Report this comment

Absolutely Tom.

Verity

July 25th, 2008 2:50pm Report this comment

Since when was Schadenfreude not enough?

Hysteria

July 25th, 2008 2:57pm Report this comment

and anyway - "Schadenfreude is a wonderful thing"

disillusioned

July 25th, 2008 3:48pm Report this comment

When you say "Obama style enthusiasm" I'm not sure I understand your point. In the US, Obama certainly isn't reaching a level of enthusiasm that would enable him to take hardcore Republican states. In fact, recent polls have Obama just a few points ahead of McCain. I'm sure Obama would take Cameron's lead over Brown any day of the week.

I'd also question the comparison of two fundamentally different political systems. Ours is multi-party where theirs is just two.

However, if we are using the Obama comparison then Cameron is targeting his winnable constituencies in largely the same way that Obama is targeting Ohio, Alaska and other states that could flip. He'd be foolish to waste resources anywhere else.

Dominic Marchmain, author of http://young-fogey.blogspot.com/

July 25th, 2008 3:50pm Report this comment

Should we really even expect "Obama style for the Tories" in an area such as Glasgow East. Granted, it may show a failure of the Tory leader to attract the working class voters it seems to be aiming for, but I don't think we should stamp on Conservative strawberries because of a leap from fourth to third place.

Nicholas

July 25th, 2008 4:02pm Report this comment

It's not a beating with a stick Labour need . . .

Marian C

July 25th, 2008 4:37pm Report this comment

Tom; I agree with you

Fiona Sandford

July 25th, 2008 5:04pm Report this comment

Fraser
Let's be realistic - miracles take a little longer !

Clegg-doomed to failure

July 25th, 2008 6:32pm Report this comment

Fraser you are wrong, yet again. It amazes me the Tories got any votes in Glasgow East let alone move up from 4th to 3rd. This is a place where Tories are HATED. Another thing I wish you would focus some of your negativity on the Lib Dems, whose support is collapsing. Are you a closet Lib Dem? I am starting to wonder!

Wilfred

July 25th, 2008 6:40pm Report this comment

I'm very happy for this result to be because of hatred for Labour rather than infatuation with the Tories.

This means that people are finally developing a rightful (no pun intended) hatred for socialism and all the crap that goes with it.

TGF UKIP

July 25th, 2008 7:16pm Report this comment

Fraser, re Faceless Bureaucrat's post, I didn't hear you on Today this am but I am glad that you were impressive. Indeed, if there were an opinion poll of the best known and most influential of Tory spokesmen where do you think you would come? Top ten for certain I would venture and quite possibly top five. Are you already Dave's Alastair Campbell or just the Tory answer to the equally ubiquitous Kevin Maguire - I think we should be told.

Ian C

July 28th, 2008 10:50am Report this comment

I was away at avery jouyous wedding over the w/e and returned last night and this morning to catch up. Do you still hold the same views having read the Sundays, Fraser? I don't.

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