No such thing as a safe seat
Fraser Nelson 12:25pm
Dunfermline,
Remember the BNP’s electoral successes – such as they are – come from exploiting the forgotten people in Labour’s modern-day rotten boroughs. They were the first to spot the trend now appearing: that a “safe” seat is only safe if no one bothers to campaign there. Labour has allowed its safe seats to become terra incognita: it has no canvass returns, presence on the ground or (crucially) a discernable mission. The SNP explored and charted this territory better than Labour, and their reward was the best by-election result since Winnie Ewing took
So alongside the Tory “marginal seats” strategy and the “Lib Dem lovebomb” strategy, is there room for an audacious “Labour heartlands” strategy? Glasgow East teaches us that Labour has little to say to the people it has left languish on benefits for years, aside from “you’re poor, so you’ll vote for us, remember Thatcher, yada yada yada.” The SNP message was “you’ve voted Labour for 90 years, look where that’s got you. Try someone different”. If the Tories have the audacity to say the same, then they could remould the landscape of British politics.
As Blair would perhaps say, the kaleidoscope of British politics has been shaken and the pieces are in flux. Cameron may well be able to remake the world around him.
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Comments
ACT
July 25th, 2008 1:44pmThis is tosh. It's a by-election. For more than a quarter of a century now, in our bored, o so mature democracy, voters in by-elections have done wild n' crazzzeee things they just won't and don't do at general elections. Calling Glasgow East a rotten borough makes about as much sense as claiming that, under late period Major, Romsey, for example, was a Tory rotten borough. All the by-election tells us is that the voters - those of them that bothered to vote - have wanted to please the press and show how bored they too are with the PM.
Faceless Bureaucrat
July 25th, 2008 3:25pmACT [1.44pm]
You miss the point - losing the odd by-election is, as you say, par for the course. The difference here is the scale of the defeats in Glasgow East and C&N (huge swings), the geographical location of the constituencies (Labour heartland) and the fact that they are coming hard on the heels of Labour’s annihilation in the recent Local Elections and Mayoral Contest. These are not one-off examples of the electorate doing “…wild n' crazzzeee things…” – this is a trend.
What we are witnessing is even die-hard Labour voters saying “enough of this” and voting for change (a hackneyed term at the moment, I’ll agree, but appropriate all the same).
The Blair years are over and so now, here comes the backlash, with the current PM hopelessly ill-equipped to handle the situation. This is more than losing the odd by-election mid-term and a change of Leader will not save Labour.
kinglear
July 25th, 2008 4:23pmThe SNP message in Glasgow and Scotland is as you say " you voted Labour and see what you got" Labour has done nothing for Scotland ever, and has always treated the people here as idiot vote-fodder. It's too late for spin, new policies or anything else. As a Labout ex-activist told me yesterday - we won in 1997, and they've pissed it all away.
Oscar
July 25th, 2008 5:36pmACT - this isn't the kind of protest vote that goes to an unelectable party mid-term. The SNP are in power in Scotland and got the vote. C&N went blue not yellow. This is about ejecting a discredited and despised government - as FB says - it's about serious political change, not a bit of mid-term maverick voting.
Hysteria
July 25th, 2008 9:10pmI reckon we are seeing a few things here - not the least of which is the death throws of socialism as a political idea in this country.
What I have not seen debated is the effect on the Union. If Labour get swept away (for those of you who think it can't happen - look at Canada)then I don't reckon Scotland will turn Blue - but I am sure most Labour voters in Scotland would repeat the trick of this week and vote SNP (Especially when SNP policies are actually seen to be doing something). Meanwhile down south of the border, Labour are left with a handful of seats, an overall Tory majority but an enhanced Lib Dem position.
Next the SNP invoke their plan for a referendum - and then what happens??
Pete, Scotland
July 25th, 2008 9:51pmHysteria, my opinion is that unless we have a Government in power that gives the people of Scotland, England, Ireland, and Wales a bombastically good reason to stay united then the SNP have a good chance of winning the Referendum.
It is starting to become almost fashionable, especially after Glasgow East, to vote SNP.
It is almost like voting Labour was the anti-Thatcher vote, now the SNP is the anti-Labour vote.
The difference being the whole UK structure is at risk, but the feelings and emotions are the same.
Sam
July 26th, 2008 7:36amSo optimistically, a Tory govt and LibDem opposition in 2009/10 followed by a Tory/LibDem coalition and a Libertarian Party opposition in 2014?!? Followed by a Libertarian govt in 2019? I can dream can't I!!!