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Saturday, 26th July 2008

A nudge in the right direction

Rory Sutherland 1:56pm

A few months ago I wrote a Spectator article suggesting that the government  spends far too little money and time on advertising and persuasion, despite the (to me, at any rate) obvious observation that changing behaviour using information or even subtle persuasion is always preferable - on both economic and philosophical grounds - to the threat of punishment.

It still seems bizarre to me that the government spends vastly more on punishing drunk drivers than it spends on persuading people not to drive drunk. Rather as though, when my children misbehaved, my first reaction were to hit them with a large stick, only using verbal persuasion as a last resort.

However I have to admit my reasons for writing the piece were partly mischievous - and I'm not sure I wrote it expecting to have any actual effect. But at that point I hadn't read Nudge, Dick Thaler & Cass Sunstein's call for Libertarian Paternalism, nor had I read James Forsyth's fascinating interview with Thaler.

Last week, I am delighted to see, the idea of nudging seemed to be spectacularly vindicated in Britain with the suggestion that VAS Signs (Vehicle Activated Speed signs, which flash the driver's speed at any driver travelling over a certain speed) cost perhaps 98% less to operate annually than a speed camera while preventing more accidents. It is a perfect example of Thaler's assertion that "feedback" - in other words giving people better, faster information in response to their actions, can change behaviour perfectly effectively without the need for any threat. Even better (and Thaler will love this) I have found from Google Images that some road signs now even offer positive feedback, displaying a smiley face when the driver is travelling within the speed limit.

This is one of the findings which has caused Swindon Council to question the whole case for speed cameras, with Councillor Peter Greenhalgh last week awarded Top Gear's Throne of Gratitude for his decision to get rid of them.

I have to say I find all this extremely uplifting. The idea that when presented with better information, people generally act wisely is good to know. It is in many ways a vindication for what you might call "The Optimistic Right" - those people who believe that, left to their own devices, individuals will generally arrive at sensible outcomes without the need for any compulsion or threat.

It will take a while for this message to reach the Pessimistic Rightm however. Their house organ, The Daily Mail, reacted to Swindon's inspired libertarian decision with a marvellous bout of irrelevant scaremongering. "Revealed: Driving Ban for Council Chief who wants to Ban Speed Cameras".

Don'tcha just hate it?

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molesworth 1

July 26th, 2008 3:11pm Report this comment

Yes, yes yes.

People respond much better to sensible, rational, relevant information & advice than they do to the threat of arbitrary censure for transgression. It's about being treated like an adult.

Anecdotally, I drive for a living, and, from my experience, VASigns WORK. The 'Smiley Face' for "good" behaviour is also effective, as are the 'mobile' VASigns that concerned residents can use for a week or so (via their local Police or Council, I think) at any speeding hot-spots in their locality.

As an example of the Pessimistic Right's seemingly dogmatic opposition to the 'Nudge', I remember, whilst Hillary was still in the running, an excoriating reaction from the American 'right' to the suggestion that Govt. 'Health Messages' (e.g. "Breast Is Best", "Try To Stop Smoking" - pretty innocuous stuff) might appear on ATM screens. Perish the thought. It seems they were perfectly happy for commercial advertising to use this space (at a price, natch!) to proactively market fast-food, soft-drinks & transient, inessential, consumer fluff on a gender/age/location vector, with all the disastrous outcomes, but were implaccably imposed to the Govt. offering such targeted 'nudges' for social benefit.

Would it be so terrible if an info-message accompanied your ATM transaction to let you know that a shop round the corner has a 'special' on low-energy lightbulbs, or that a drop-in health centre just across the way would be happy to give you a quick opinion on that nasty lump that has appeared on your nose, or that, you being a man of a certain age, your GP would be delighted to check your prostrate, at your convenience, well no, not at your 'convenience', that's just weird.... but you get my drift?

There is a space opening up for liberal paternalism, if only it does not get sold wholesale to the brand marketing men. No, I don't want a half-price f***ing Happy Meal!

Nudging people into sensible choices by supplying timely, pertinent & cogent information is one way in which a Govt. could beneficially ally its' command of statistics/data with emerging communication technologies, for the general good of the population. As opposed to, say, an unweildy, expensive and, ultimately, un-workable National ID data-base...

Gavin

July 26th, 2008 4:33pm Report this comment

I like the idea of the smiley face, round here these signe just show your speed but I have seen some that say "Thank you". They definitely affect my driving for the better. If you combined this with the Dutch idea of shared space and take as many road signs and traffic lights away as possible !! See this link http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1533248/Is-this-the-end-of-the-road-for-traffic-lights.html. We're in danger of becoming a civilsed country again !

Tanuki

July 26th, 2008 4:55pm Report this comment

Those speed-signs can be put to other more-valuable uses: I recall one that was installed locally which flashed "Your speed XX MPH - limit 30". Of course everyone loved to spend their time seeing who could get high-score of the night.

Millsee

July 26th, 2008 10:34pm Report this comment

And yet underlying this article, and the repsonses to date, is the Government-peddled (Brownie) notion that speed=danger.

It doesn't. Speed is a factor in about 6% of accidents according to an available-but-hidden report published by the DfT.

The road safety budget should be going on education. 96% of accidents are caused by driver error, so why spend millions on traffic calming and junction realignment schemes? (It's a rhetorical question, we know why really!)

Rory Sutherland

July 26th, 2008 11:36pm Report this comment

Thank you for these comments.

The article "End of the line for traffic lights" reminded me of a peculiar diswcrepancy in traffic policy. Generally the United States, though economically liberal, favours traffic lights over roundabouts (or traffic circles): in Europe it is the other way round. Yet to me it seems obvious that traffic lights are odiously dirigiste and interventionist, whereas roundabouts are a perfect, self regulating, free market approach to traffic management. So what do Americans (with the exception of the traffic planners of Massachussetts) have against them?

Traffic lights seem to me massively less efficient and less agreeable than plain junctions, never mind roundabouts. You don't often find yourself swearing while being kept waiting at a roundabout, after all, since the only reason you need to wait at a roundabout is because someone else who arrived before you needs to use it first.

And the worst single piece of bad design in all traffic systems? The fact that Pelican crossings don't have a "cancel" button. On an average trip in London I find myself waiting at lights which have been activated by someone who has long since crossed the road using a natural break in the traffic.

Ian C

July 28th, 2008 1:12pm Report this comment

I have come late to this but you should remember that there is also the "There should be a law against it" totalitarian mob who are both right and left, but mostly the latter. They will be horified that the state can do something positive without imposing a fine or locking people up

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