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Sunday, 27th July 2008

As long as it is not Johnson, the Tories have little to fear from a change of PM

James Forsyth 11:44am

There are plenty of things to put a spring in the step of Tory MPs right now. Every day seems to bring a new poll that shows them on the way to victory, one today finds them running the table in their top thirty target seats, but what should cheer them most is that the one man who could realistically turn the next election into a genuine contest—Alan Johnson—appears uninterested in the leadership.

All the speculation so far is concentrating on David Miliband and Jack Straw. It is hard to see either of these men radically improving Labour’s fortunes.

Miliband is not as good a communicator as David Cameron and picking him would mean that Labour could not attack Cameron on grounds of inexperience, perhaps Cameron’s greatest vulnerability. Miliband would also be hobbled by inheriting a divided party, it is not hard to imagine that some of his Cabinet colleagues wouldn’t mind letting Miliband take the fall for a heavy Labour defeat at the coming election.

Straw is certainly experienced. But his elevation would seem to prove that Labour is tired and out of ideas. There would also be the loyalty problem: Straw has been involved in too many plots down the years for him to be able to effectively impose discipline on the party.

By contrast, Johnson is a natural communicator. He might not have a great policy brain—as he admitted rather too frankly on Desert Islands Discs—but he can sell things to the public better than any other member of the Cabinet. He also would have an easier time leading the party as no one believes that Johnson would want to stay on as leader of the opposition.

I don’t think anyone can save Labour from defeat at the next election. But Johnson would do a better job than any of the other contenders. He is the only one who would make it electorally worth Labour’s while to go through the pain of removing a sitting Prime Minister.

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mitch

July 27th, 2008 12:18pm Report this comment

He only said that so gordon wouldn't squish him when he had the power,He would take the job in a heartbeat if he thought he could get it but watch him smile it`s only the mouth the eyes are pure calculation.No thanks

Patrick

July 27th, 2008 1:00pm Report this comment

Got to agree with that Mitch. As we say in the Army, "Shifty eyes, shifty nature."

Elephant_In_The_Room

July 27th, 2008 1:02pm Report this comment

If Labour change leader and there is a general election before all countries have ratified Lisbon, Dave will have to go through with his pledge of holding a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty "and campaigning for a no". Between you and me, I don't think Dave fancies doing that, so this instability is not undiluted great news for Blue Labour.

Alex

July 27th, 2008 1:05pm Report this comment

He once said that he was not cut out to be Prime Minister.

Who would want to be PM for only 2 years; especially when the country is in the mess it is now.

Bruce, UK

July 27th, 2008 1:08pm Report this comment

"He might not have a great policy brain—as he admitted rather too frankly on Desert Islands Discs—but he can sell things to the public better than any other member of the Cabinet".

What? A shallow salesman in the Labour Party? What is the world coming to?

Well done Gordon; enjoy the holiday - take as much time as we need.

Verity

July 27th, 2008 1:11pm Report this comment

The most dangerous thing about Johnson is, he is appealing to women. A lot of women who were planning to desert Labour would have second thoughts if Johnson were the Labour leader.

salieri

July 27th, 2008 1:25pm Report this comment

I beg to differ, James. Johnson can do the cheeky chappie routine all right but what else, pray? Find an unpoliticised civil servant in his department and ask whether AJ has even read one of his red boxes all the way through.

Toby

July 27th, 2008 1:32pm Report this comment

Rearranging the deckchairs while the Titanic is taking in water ...

Trumpeter Lanfried

July 27th, 2008 1:58pm Report this comment

Isn't Johnson the bloke who capitulated on civil service pension negotiations? The result, I seem to remember, is that civil servants now effectively pay no income tax. All their PAYE goes to fund their gold-plated final-salary pensions.

Meanwile, those of us in the private sector find our pension funds plundered year by year, courtesy of God's gift to Southwold.

TGF UKIP

July 27th, 2008 3:01pm Report this comment

Alan "irrefutable" Johnson's greatest claim to fame must surely be for breaking the world record for the most expensive unsuccessful election campaign in history. Remember this is the man who, in his quest for the Labour Deputy Leadership, bribed the public sector comrades with countless taxpayer billions over the years to finance continuing public sector retirement at 60 at the same time as the rest of the population were being jacked up to 67 and then 68.

Unfortunately for him our bribe money went unrewarded when the rat bastards in the unions bestowed their favours on Harperson instead.

As to who succeeds Gordon if he goes, forget all the New Labour types - Miliband, Purnell etc, the unions now have the power and the purse strings and it's going to be no more pink Tories for them.

Woodley, Simpson, Kenny etc are authentic Morning Star trade unionists of old so it's going to be someone with sufficiently left wing credentials acceptable to them who will win the Leadership.

Anan

July 27th, 2008 3:13pm Report this comment

Where has my post gone.

Pete Hoskin

July 27th, 2008 3:58pm Report this comment

Anan: do you mean the comment that you've tried to make a couple of times? If so, it contained stuff that could have landed us in hot water, and so can't be approved.

Anan

July 27th, 2008 4:05pm Report this comment

Yes I did. I really don't think there was anything that bad in it. Secondly, how could a comment by me, a private individual, affect you or your publication. It's not as if one of you wrote it. Anyway, I've changed what you are probably wringing your hands over. I think the rest of it was OK.

Why would the Conervatives need to be worried about a postman who hasn't been seen for the last 6 months (even with all the healthcare debate recently)?

I think it's best for Dave if Brown stays in power, but any of the other incompetent crooks of ZaNuLabour will be equally fine.

Slightly changing what Prescott said once: The Conservatives' best asset is the entire Labour party. How times change eh?

mr a prince

July 27th, 2008 4:20pm Report this comment

just remember the determination of londoners ,for first time in 20 years, to vote in boris. With another 20% off residential property prices to come,and a 5% annual decline in living standards,labour will be lucky to survive as a serious politicll party.

Tina

July 27th, 2008 5:53pm Report this comment

I was advocating Johnson to challenge Brown last year, he is very popular. You are right he is the one the Tories should fear.

The Cat Anan

July 27th, 2008 6:04pm Report this comment

I am not associated in any way with the comments made by my namesake above.

Hilda

July 27th, 2008 6:32pm Report this comment

YES, Toby...and I thought everyone had forgotten.
It's all a lesson in how to distract People from the REALLY Big B[r]other!

Hilda

July 27th, 2008 6:52pm Report this comment

And yes, E_I_T_R, I agree on the importance of the time factor. Suggestion, though: Even if the eurSSR allows an election in 2 years, they'll surely know how to fix the results.

JONNY

July 27th, 2008 7:21pm Report this comment

Let's just put them in the balance.
First we have Brown. Huge intellect. Massive experience. The sort of substance you can't argue with. A conviction politican. The biggest beast in the political jungle by any measure you like.
And they want to swap him for an amiable character called Johnson................................................. s'pose must be something to do with that chirpy cheeky chappy smile he has.

Strange times we live in.

Prodicus

July 27th, 2008 7:30pm Report this comment

Don't give the buggers ideas. Let them rot in their own mess, with or without Brown. (And Harman worries me more than Johnson, anyway)

Fergus Pickering

July 27th, 2008 8:05pm Report this comment

Brown huge intellect? Where do you get that? Ah I now. Brown says he's got a huge intellect. And it's true you can't understand most of what he says. Mnd you, my daughter works with people like that. They're mad, deranged, out to lunch.

John

July 27th, 2008 9:46pm Report this comment

Anan, a publisher (in this case, the Spectator who owns this site) is legally liable for defamation etc it publishes, never mind who wrote it. Being a 'private individual' is hardly a defence in a libel case.

I was amused by the unnamed 'former minister' who said: "It's not as though the people dislike Labour - they only dislike Brown". These people live on some other planet, quite unable to grasp what goes on among the voters. There is huge hatred for ZanuLab up and down the country, and these idiots simply don't get it.

For the prat Blunkett to urge those plotting against Brown to 'grow up' is one of the best examples of pot and kettle I have seen for some time.

Verity

July 27th, 2008 9:47pm Report this comment

Prodicus - Would they be stupid enough to vote for Harridan Harpic? They know she has made an enemy of every white man in Britain, and a lot of women who live with and love those men (and also have families full fathers, brothers, uncles, cousins ...). Harpic would be a walking suicide note.

... Bring it on!

Ann

July 27th, 2008 9:50pm Report this comment

He doesn't appeal to me. In fact, I find him revolting.

Brown has a 'huge intellect'? Oh, dear ... the man who made a complete mess of the finances of this country, selling gold cheap and so on, is an ignorant and stupid clown.

Nicholas

July 27th, 2008 10:10pm Report this comment

National Socialist Policy Forum latest: Baldrick's Cunning Plan No.178b: lower the voting age to ensure Labour get an increased yoof vote at the next GE.

According to the BBC News tonight - no need to panic, everything is under control, the Great Leader is getting on with the job and Labour are rallying behind him to prepare for a fourth term.

jose garcia

July 28th, 2008 1:42am Report this comment

Alan jonhson,!!!!! ? the one who wanted to resign if catholic agencies refused on conscience grounds to send kids to homosexual couples?

he wont get my vote i guarantee you that, labour is stinking sewer full of raving atheists ,control freaks islamic apeasers, and acerbic anticristians/anti family pro abortion bigots.

And alan jonhson is probably the biggest of them all.

like RICHARD "LITTLE JOHN" said ...."they promised us jerusalem but gave us little britain"......

Anglica

July 28th, 2008 2:24am Report this comment

I work with some too, Fergus. I know mine as Franco-German Claptra...sorry: Marxist and Deconstructionist Theorists.

john miller

July 28th, 2008 3:31am Report this comment

The fundemental problem NuLab have is that Blair and Brown were dictators within their own party. It worked while Brown ran the country and Blair the budgie ran around the world perched on Bush's shoulder, squeaking whatever song his master wanted.

But now Brown has crawled from under the stone and Blair has gone. And the public are revolted by what they see in the harsh light of day.

But the Blair/Brown era has relied on squashing every other minister into insignificance. Which is why commentators are able to put forward an argument for a complete nonentity who has never made a decision in his life.

+ Anglica +

July 28th, 2008 7:29am Report this comment

Those Theorists I mentioned? You know - the ones brainwashing kids in the unis - they're just the way Jose describes them, too.

David C

July 28th, 2008 10:06am Report this comment

John (MIller):
I'm not sure that Blair 'squashed other ministers into insignificance'.
The ministers in the Blair administration came back more times than a Hammer Dracula, if they were halfway adequate.
Reid was constantly being retreaded and shoved back onto the bandwagon. Blunkett had his own private revolving door into Whitehall and Straw was found to be barely competent at every job he tried (which is probably why he is in Brown's cabinet).
I think it is a measure of Brown's character that he has surrounded himself with 'nonentities' and downright rejects from the Blair term.

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