100 days to go

At this stage in the race, Obama’s campaign has more to feel satisfied about than McCain’s. Obama is ahead in the polls, his campaign is staying on message and the stagecraft behind his events remains impressive. But in a favourable year for Democrats, Obama has not yet accrued the kind of polling lead that would suggest this contest is all done bar the shouting.

The McCain campaign needs a shot in the arm and the most obvious way for it to get it is with a bold VP choice. In recent days, there’s been buzz around more daring options such as Bobby Jindall, Fred Smith and Meg Whitman as well as rumours about safer choices such as Tim Pawlenty.

Most people expect McCain to announce his choice after the Democratic convention to try and limit the bounce that Obama gets from the event. But the risk with this strategy is that if it a bold pick it could look like a panic measure if it comes when McCain is trailing by a double-digit margin.