The maths doesn’t look good for Miliband
James Forsyth 11:56am
The Miliband camp can easily spin today’s YouGov poll, which Pete blogged earlier, showing that the Tory lead holds steady with Miliband as leader. They can say with some justification that the public has seen Brown doing the job and decided that he’s not up to it while they might warm to Miliband once they get to know him. More challenging for the nascent Miliband leadership bid is Labour’s electoral math.
If Miliband has set in chain a series of events that leads to Brown’s departure, then there will be a leadership contest. Huge chunks of the Labour party will not accept a Miliband coronation. At the moment, the talk is of a unity candidate—representing the left and the centre of the Labour party—challenging Miliband.
Labour elects its leader via an electoral college with a third of the vote going to MPs and MEPs, a third to party members and a third to the Unions. The first preference votes from the 2007 deputy leadership election give us a rough idea of where the ideological balance of power lies:
Benn—16.41%
Blears—11.76%
Cruddas—19.39%
Hain—15.32%
Harman—18.93%
Johnson—18.16%
If you consider that—in crude terms—Blears was the Blairite candidate, the Cruddas and Hain vote represents the left’s voting strength, Benn was the unity candidate and that Johnson and Harman represented the centre-right and centre-left of the party you see what a mountain Miliband has to climb. One Labour number-cruncher said to me yesterday that he couldn’t see Miliband getting more than 45 percent of the vote from the MPs and MEPs, 40 percent from the members and 20 percent from the Unions. Indeed, it is hard to see how Miliband wins in a two-candidate race without the other candidate imploding.
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bob
August 1st, 2008 12:15pm Report this comment"They can say with some justification that the public has seen Brown doing the job and decided that he’s not up to it while they might warm to Miliband once they get to know him."
The more I've got 'to know' him the more contempt I have for him and his pathetic lack of ability.
How can a man who's widely lampooned as only just being out of short trousers, with some justification, possibly hope to be PM.
I suppose it helps that he's following the:
Worst Prime Minister Ever.
PS Fraser still owes me a Tee shirt for Glasgow East.
For my second prediction and bet. Labour will not even be Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition come the next GE.
C Powell
August 1st, 2008 12:41pm Report this commentObvious point: unless he gets 70 MPs to sign up behind him, publicly, and then wins all the other votes in order to get the actual challenge off the ground, there won't be any leadership election at all. And this Blairite/left-wing analysis is so much hot air. The important point is that they will be talking to themselves not to us, the voters or about what we want but about what they want, in order to stay in power, as if they had a right to be in government. And the voters will repay that contempt, in spades, when the time comes, whichever numpty is in charge.
Burton
August 1st, 2008 1:10pm Report this commentThe more I see of Miliband, the less I like. Should he not resign from the Cabinet? Is this a leadership bid or not.
You need to be a serious kremlinologist to translate what is going on. If he can't talk straight today, he won't tomorrow.
Huw Jampton
August 1st, 2008 1:50pm Report this commentThe Grammar Doesn't Look Good For Forsyth . . .
The word 'maths' is an abbreviation of 'mathematics'. It is a PLURAL noun. So, surely the maths DON'T look good for Miliband. I thought that The Spectator employed writers who had a basic grasp of English. However, it seems I was wrong, James . . .
Labour Member
August 1st, 2008 1:54pm Report this commentSo, the more Tories see of Miliband, the less they like. That's the way it's meant to be.
Miliband can win a leadership election in the same way as Blair did - by getting the party to focus on what will get it winning.
The deputy leadership election is a poor guide to anything. After all in 1994 when the "right" (Blair) won the leadership, the "left" (Prescott) won the deputy post.
It's a meaningless job.
D. Maud Land
August 1st, 2008 2:13pm Report this commentA man is known by the company he keeps, as they say. So who are the 'Miliband camp' apart from Denis McShane and Ivan lewis. I don't place much value on the recommendations of either of those two and I certainly wouldn't want to see them in a Cabinet.
Philip Pines
August 1st, 2008 2:19pm Report this commentLabour Member believes its only Tories who dislike Miliband.
The Guardian's Comment is Free demonstrates clearly that the Left are even more repelled by Miliband than the Tories.
Thomas R.K. Fry
August 1st, 2008 3:26pm Report this commentApropos Huw Jampton, number in English grammar is controlled by thought, so "fish and chips is a lovely meal", "law and order is breaking down" et cetera. Have you ever heard anyone say "maths are my favourite subject"?
The long and the short of it are that James was correct.
LS
August 1st, 2008 3:27pm Report this comment"Maths are my favourite subject"? That just sounds wrong.
Huw Jampton
August 1st, 2008 3:35pm Report this commentIt may sound wrong to you; however . . . "The maths is my favourite subject" sounds even worse, nicht wahr?
Neil
August 1st, 2008 3:54pm Report this commentThose ideological percentages might not hold up when picking a leader. People might go for whoever is perceived to be electable. In 2007 they knew who the leader would be and could indulge themselves more in the deputy election.
Ellen
August 1st, 2008 5:27pm Report this commentThey're all as deluded as Brown.
Change the leader and all is forgiven? In your dreams, New Labour.
The abbatoir beckons and those Orwellian pigs can squeal and scream all they like in their cosseted farmhouse, but there'll be plenty of them struggling to live out in the real world soon enough paying sky high taxes, instead of sauntering about the place buying John Lewis furniture as standard.
Squeal pigs, squeal! Those hog bellies you've stuffed with state cash are going to get slashed open and I can't wait for the bloodbath!
Make it painful, Mr Butcher.
"We'll leave a red mess lying here..."
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