Miliband is the boy who lived but Johnson is the man who might thrive
James Forsyth 8:03pm
The 12 days since David Miliband’s Guardian op-ed has seen Miliband both achieve a tactical success and a tactical failure. Indeed, the real gainers from this initial phase have been the other possible challengers.
Miliband’s achievement is that he is the boy who lived. He is the first Labour MP since Blair in 1994 to emerge as a serious threat to Brown’s leadership ambitions and survive. The fact that Miliband was not dispatched instantly means that his credibility has risen. His continuing presence in the government even after his performance on the Jeremy Vine show is a daily reminder of Brown’s weakness.
But if Brown is forced out, Miliband will be the candidate tarred with disloyalty and the one that the Brownites will do anything to stop. The Miliband camp has long wanted to avoid falling into this trap knowing that given his weakness in the Union section of Labour’s electoral college he is going to have to gain a sufficient cushion in both the party member and MP and MEPs bits of it to stand a chance, something he is extremely unlikely to do in these circumstances.
Perhaps the most under-appreciated development of the past few days has been how some of the other possible leadership challengers have been positioning themselves. Harriet Harman’s News of the World article last weekend included the rather curious phrasing, “there isn't a leadership election-nor should there be.” The consensus among folk I have spoken to is that she is setting herself up as a loyalist/unity alternative to Miliband should Brown be forced out of Number 10. (For why I think Harman would be a formidable candidate in such circumstances click here)
By far the most significant development, though, was the Mail On Sunday’s story about relations between Brown and Alan Johnson being “close to breaking point”. Far more interesting than the talk about a Johnson-Miliband dream ticket, was that the paper had been told that Brown and Johnson had fallen out over Downing Street holding back the Human Fertilisation and Embryology bill in an attempt to avoid upsetting Catholic voters in Glasgow East. This bill has totemic importance to many Labour MPs and activists and having a “blazing row” with the Prime Minister over him holding it back will do Johnson a lot of good among the Labour selectorate. Indeed, it is a twofer for the Health Secretary as Harriet Harman is the Leader of the House. Shouldn’t she have persuaded the PM to press on with it? So, Johnson both appeals to the Labour selectorate and cuts into Harman’s base on one of its key issues.
One veteran of last year’s Labour deputy leadership race said to me just before I went away that one of the reasons he thought Johnson had come up short in that contest was that he did not have a proper spin doctor. Johnson has now remedied that with the appointment of Jo Revill, who was the Observer’s health correspondent and before that a member of the lobby. Staffing up, not returning calls from newspapers asking if Gordon can win and letting it be known that he’s to the ‘left’ of the PM on a key issue--taken together all this suggests that Johnson is on manoeuvres.
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BCS
August 11th, 2008 9:10pm Report this commentSee politicalbetting.com today however.
Anan
August 11th, 2008 9:43pm Report this commentAs per my earlier comments reguarding the Postman, if Johnson and Miligeek are the best Labour can come up with compared to Brown, ol' Dave has nothing at all to worry about.
John
August 11th, 2008 9:51pm Report this commentStill rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic, on planet Westminster Hacks.
None of this matters, for crying out loud. This is nothing but what teenage boys do in the bathroom when they spend too much time there.
James J
August 11th, 2008 10:14pm Report this commentAnan, any reference to The Postman would only open up the Toff attack. Those that bother to vote will probably ensure a Conservative victory, but for them to reverse the damage done in the Blair-Brown years they need a very comfortable majority. The Conservatives should hope and pray Miliband is the next Labour leader.
chris
August 11th, 2008 11:09pm Report this commentBrown is such a team player isn't he?
Verity
August 11th, 2008 11:23pm Report this commentJames J - I concur. I've said for a couple of years that Johnson's dangerous because he is attractive to women, and Labour women who might have stayed home, or might have had a go at voting Tory or the BNP, might be prepared to give him a chance.
I agree, too, about the reference to "the postman".
Yes, we need the disquieting Millipede to be presented as the latest socialist saviour.
Anan
August 12th, 2008 12:04am Report this commentBy calling him Postman I do not mean that he shouldn't be leader because he is low, etc. What I mean is that you need to be of a higher level of education if you want to run a country. Otherwise, why don't we just let the nearest plumber be leader or maybe a Romanian illegal immigrant would also be acceptable? Will that also open up the toff attack?
Anyway, why would you be so worried about "toff attack"? No matter what language Conservatives use, Labour always come out with the "toff attack." Or have you two already forgotten about Crewe?
And yes I'm sure Labour women will vote for Johnson. They will vote for anything with a Labour sticker on it, even a horse. That still won't help. Postman or Miligeek - either way Labour is doomed.
P.S. Who is this James J that only appears whenever I make the Postman comment. Is that you Frasy?
Anan
August 12th, 2008 12:06am Report this commentP.P.S. Actually, where on Earth is the Postman? I haven't seen him around for months. Why don't you journos go find out and report on it? Perhaps my earlier censored comment from a few weeks ago was true?
Ian J
August 12th, 2008 1:45am Report this commentBrown is an idiot who cannot even run the labour party let alone the country. Johnson Can.
His supporters cannot bully the party like they did once did. The Scottish mafia days are over and they can take Ed and Evette with them.
John
August 12th, 2008 10:09am Report this commentJohnson can run the country because ... ????????
William Norton
August 12th, 2008 11:42am Report this commentThe Toff attack on Cameron clearly didn't work, although it's unclear whether that was because it was bungled spectacularly, or because in these enlightened egalitarian times it won't work, or because it won't work against Cameron personally, or because we secretly like being governed by Toffs.
But that doesn't mean there wouldn't be some traction for Johnson in being the Prole-ier Than Thou candidate. Decent, hard-working, dragged-himself-up-from-the-gutter, I've-nothing-against-Mr Cameron-but-he doesn't-know-what's-like-for-people-like-us, Postman Pat: it might all be eyewash but handled properly it could be a formidable proposition.
Simon
August 12th, 2008 12:43pm Report this commentThe only thing needed to disrupt Johnson is to play that clip from Desert Island Discs where he states quite clearly that he doesn't believe himself up to the job of running the country.
His humble origins are part of a narrative - but it doesn't make him a better potential leader. He has not really shone as a minister. He has got through. His handling of the NHS is hardly a shining example of ministerial competence. The fact that he can't sort out NICE or the disgrace of hospital filth or the fact that those who opt to pay for extra drugs are excluded from the NHS (even though they paid for it).
He isn't capable enough to sort out that - and thus he can't be capable enough to run our country.
Verity
August 12th, 2008 1:25pm Report this commentSimon, as Ed Balls might say, "So weak."
Gordon Brown couldn't run a tea room yet he was Chancellor of one of the world's major economies for 10 years and now Prime Minister.
I have a feeling that there is a sense that Johnson would be more collegiate and give genuine responsibility to others. We know at the moment that gordon's febrile fingers are everywhere. Not that any of them is capable of making a sound decision, so it doesn't matter how much he interferes.
I don't agree that Labour women will vote for anything with a Labour sticker on it, even a horse. Not this time round. I still maintain that Johnson is the most dangerous to the Conservatives.
Kevyn Bodman
August 12th, 2008 2:04pm Report this commentAn interesting comment from Anan at 12.04 on the level of education a PM needs, and I would like to disagree.
A postman or a plumber could do it; I could do it;
In the USA an actor was President and one state has had a wrestler as Governor, another state has an actor.
Education is a continuing process. I know a number of people educated to Doctoral level who have no intellectual curiosity left, and I know many without degrees who continue to expand their horizons.
Sir Humphrey will deal with the administration tasks of the country.
What we need from our politicians are principles,integrity and transparency.
We should know what they think when they offer themselves for election, and what they will do if they win.
Having a First Class degree is an indicator of brains and industry, it is not an indicator of political principles or tendencies.Or honesty or courage.These qualities might be present, they might not.
Get party leaders with transparent principles and let Sir Humphrey deal with the problems of implementing the policies he is told to implement.
@Verity
As a healthy straght man I can't see why Johnson is thought to be attractive to women.
I would have thought, from my non-expert position, that either Ranger or Morelli would be a better choice.
Verity
August 12th, 2008 11:36pm Report this commentKevyn Bodman - You clever thing!! Absolutely outstanding!!
Congratulations on providing the surprise of the week - or the month, even!
I didn't know men followed Stephanie Plum! (Admit it. Neither Ranger nor the extremely interesting Morelli are prime ministerial material.) But thanks for the surprise and the laugh! How very sly of you.
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