What the West should do now
Peter Hoskin 8:55am
There are two things that the West should now do in relation to Georgia. The first is to help preserve the fragile truce that now exists between Georgia and Russia. That means that Western policymakers have to be involved, encouraging and prominent. They should not shy away from using the carrot and the stick, in the form of incentives and sanctions. And they should consider deploying a peacekeeping force in the region, and what its role would be. So far, the French have lead by example. Hopefully, that example will be followed by other nations – including Britain – at an emergency meeting of EU nations later today.
The second is to help find, as Gordon Brown put it, a “permanent solution” to the disputed territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But things aren't looking promising on that front. A sixth point was dropped from the five point plan brokered by the French – a point which would have held the Russians and the Georgians to holding international discussions on the futures of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And the Georgian President, Mikhail Saakashvili, has even said that:
“The territorial integrity and belonging of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Georgia can never be put under doubt.”
At the very least, this stubbornness leaves his country open to future Russian bullying. The best alternative would be a democratic solution to the problem, by way of internationally-monitored referenda in both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Not only could this deliver to both regions the self-determination they're alleged to desire, but it would also be good for Georgia. After all, it would help prove that country's democratic credentials in the eyes of the West, thereby easing its entry into Nato. And, for the reasons outlined by James a fews day ago, that should be the utlimate goal now.
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Chuck Unsworth
August 13th, 2008 9:48am Report this comment"So far, the French have lead by example"
No. So far, the French have siezed the opportunity....
However there's some confusion as to whether Sarkozy is acting in the interests (and on behalf of) the EU or France.
Then again, he doubtless regards both as the same thing.
burma toad
August 13th, 2008 9:58am Report this commentRussia must be shown that such bullying will exert a cost. Immediate admission of Georgia to Nato would be fraught with problems - not least the fcat that the breakaway regions are still red-hot.
But an ever bigger fear for Moscow would be "losing" Ukraine. Long frontier, Black Sea fleet etc etc.
So why not open immediate talks on speeding up Kiev's accession to Nato?
David C
August 13th, 2008 10:09am Report this commentI believe Sarkozy promised EU peacekeepers (very kind of him) so Chuck has a strong point.
But Georgian 'stubborness' makes no difference.
Russia is saying 'give us what we want or we will take it' and Georgia cannot resist. Instead, it is putting off the moment when it will have three neighbours (Russia plus the two puppets, S. Ossetia and the Abkhaz) nibbling at its borders.
Patrick, London
August 13th, 2008 10:29am Report this commentThe ultimate answer to Russian power play is lies in energy policy not in diplomacy or military politics.
When the West can make a meaningful reduction in its use of imported oil is when the price of oil will go right down - and with it the economies of the Islamic world and Russia.
William Norton
August 13th, 2008 10:45am Report this commentPoor bloody Georgians. They've been invaded by the Russians and now they're going to be occupied by the French. Some people just can't win.
Guy Incognito
August 13th, 2008 11:33am Report this commentI see David Miliband is bemoaning Russia's '19th century' diplomacy, repeating the paleo-Blairite elision between 'old' and 'bad'.
I don't suppose it occurs to him that the 'late 20th-21st century' way of doing things - ie making stuff up as you go along and putting your faith in meaningless abstractions and impotent international bodies - is what helped get us into this mess. At least in the 1800s the nation state was sovereign, and British sailors weren't kidnapped with impunity by tinpot theocracies.
Ted Tedford
August 13th, 2008 11:56am Report this commentGuy Incognito: Yes, Thoroughly Modern Miliband seems to be reduced to the sort of lofty but wholly unconvincing rejoinders you'd expect from such a Lego-haired inky swot of a deputy head boy.
And I'm aware I'm indulging in playground insults, but I'm not the British foreign secretary. It pains me, every time this ridiculous man appears, that he *is*.
JONNY
August 13th, 2008 2:59pm Report this comment'why not open immediate talks on speeding up Kiev's accession to Nato?'
Of course. It's a wide open field. Anything goes. Except Russia might retaliate by sending its missiles back to Cuba. The good old Tit-for-Tat you know. I think Putin's might have the nerve for it.
Hang on a mo. Why don't we just decide for a change not to rub the Russian Bear's nose in it. Steer clear -and opt for the peaceful life.
I think that's what my 2 year old grandson might need if he's going to reach 21.
James J
August 13th, 2008 3:07pm Report this commentWhat the West should do now? How about waking up to the realities of power and stop thinking like 1968 Student Radicals?
David Lindsay
August 13th, 2008 4:14pm Report this comment"What the West should do now"?
Learn its lesson.
Ted Tedford
August 13th, 2008 4:38pm Report this commentJonny: "Steer clear - and opt for the peaceful life."
It is depressing, though perhaps not surprising, that anyone could write these words in the aftermath of the 20th century. Sadly they seem to be the default for much of Europe.
All this talk of Russia's 'humiliation' and 'justifiable grievance' is wrong-headed. Russia forfeited the loyalty of these states by her treatment of their citizens. If they turn away from her now, she has no one - no one - but herself to blame. There is a moral difference between coercion and persuasion which Russia's leaders have never understood.
The only thing Russia has to 'fear' from the loss of these states to Nato is the reflection of her own inadequacy. But that would force her to confront the real effects of her poisonous relations with her neighbours. She will not retrieve their loyalty down the barrel of a T80. (Perhaps Mr Putin should read 'Nudge'...)
James J
August 13th, 2008 6:48pm Report this commentA T80 can give a pretty good nudge.
Max Kaye
August 13th, 2008 7:03pm Report this commentWe're paying the price for the blunder called Kosovo.
BCS
August 13th, 2008 7:12pm Report this commentSo the West should now consider dispatching a peacekeeping force to South Ossetia. This suggestion borders on the insane. The Russians have just brutaly invaded Georgia in order to prevent a Georgian military presence in South Ossetia. Are they really going to tolerate a Western force deep inside their sphere of interest, given how hostile they have been to Georgian membership of NATO? I suppose that if they refuse to co-operate then Peter's 'sanctions' come into play. Sigh. When will we regain our faculties and stop indulging in bear-baiting?
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