Another by-election nightmare looms for Brown
Matthew d'Ancona 9:58am
The death of John MacDougall, Labour MP for Glenrothes since 2001, will trigger yet another nightmare for Gordon Brown. No other word will do. Glenrothes in Fife is on the PM’s very doorstep and – after Glasgow East – looks distinctly vulnerable. In the 2005 general election, Mr MacDougall polled 19,395 votes, well ahead of the SNP’s John Beare on 8,731. But Labour’s majority of 10,664 accounted for only 28.5 per cent of the vote. In Glasgow East, Labour’s 2005 majority was larger in absolute terms – 13,507 – but accounted for more than 43 per cent of the turnout.
In other words, Glenrothes looks like an even juicier target for the SNP: if Alex Salmond’s party could win in Glasgow East, this should be, frankly, a doddle. Expect a bonanza of by-election bribes from the Treasury in the weeks before the by-election. Will they make any difference? I doubt it. As Irwin Stelzer argues in tomorrow’s magazine, the voters are getting wise to Mr Brown’s efforts to woo them with their own money - or, rather the growing public debt which they, as taxpayers will service.
The (as yet unannounced) date of the Glenrothes by-election is now one of the most important in the months ahead – up there with Gordon’s conference speech in Manchester next month. The respective supporters of David Miliband, Alan Johnson, Jack Straw, Harriet Harman and others will be making their dispositions for the morning after the vote. Do not be deceived by the dozy politics of the summer holidays. There is much bloodshed ahead.
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The Huntsman
August 13th, 2008 10:24am Report this commentThough I cleave to the view that most of Brown's relentless plunge into the abyss is attributable to the fact that he is an incompetent, dishonourable, dishonest, uncollegiate, ill-tempered dithering wastrel, one has to acknowledge that he has also had bad luck.
This looks, one the strength of Glasgow east, like a shoe-in for the loathsome Alex. For Labour it is simply a nightmare which ever way you slice it. Hold it quickly and Christmas arrives early for Turkey Brown. Hold it late and the SNP majority goes stratospheric. Either way the sense that Labour in Scotland is like the Dodo - a doomed species being picked off one by one for the pot by marauding SNP sailors - is palpable. Worse still Brown will have lost two elections in constituencies next to his in short order.
Labour is beginning to reap the harvest of fifty years of contemptuous neglect of its Scottish heartlands. If the SNP can squeeze it here, the Tories and the LibDems in the North and the Tories in the South with some attrition in Wales,the possibility of Labour being wrecked as a political force beckons.
Bill Paisley
August 13th, 2008 10:26am Report this commentThe Scots should try and get Tony Benn to stand in Glenrothes. It'd be nice to have him back in the commons and it could make the next leadership campaign very juicy :D
Simon
August 13th, 2008 10:30am Report this commentWhilst I am sorry for the death of the MP, I cannot help but inwardly smile at the prospect of another by-election defeat for GB et al.
However I am not convinced that it will persuade GB that his time is up. I am not even convinced that losing the GE will get him to leave No10. Perhaps we will need to send the troops him to liberate Downing Street.
Faceless Bureaucrat
August 13th, 2008 10:51am Report this commentThing is Matthew, a by-election called due to the untimely death of the sitting MP has always been treated differently in the past. Opposition Parties tended to run low-key campaigns and in some cases, did not even field a Candidate at all, out of respect. Of course, that was in the old days and one could argue that there is too much to play for to allow such niceties to get in the way of giving GB another bloody nose. As most would no doubt agree, it is impossible to overstate the SNP’s achievement in taking Glasgow East recently and if they feel they are on a roll and their (by now highly experienced and confident) campaign team is up for the fight, then we could indeed see another upset for the Government.
Meanwhile, John MacDougall MP, RIP…
madasafish
August 13th, 2008 11:01am Report this commentAn English Millionaire to stand as Labour's candidate in Glenrothes..? (Benn)
That should mobilise the core vote.. NOT>
Drew
August 13th, 2008 11:01am Report this commentBill Paisley has the right idea, but the wrong candidate.
Step forward Ken Livingstone!
Hilary
August 13th, 2008 11:09am Report this commentCatherine Stihler MEP as possible Lab candidate?
Or will Dunfermline and West Fife scare her off for ever?
M
August 13th, 2008 11:18am Report this commentA little-noticed result in the News of the World opinion poll (see earlier Coffee House post) was that the SNP was 20 points ahead of Labour in Scotland - the same as the Tories' lead in the whole of the UK.
It was decent of Brown to fly up and visit MacDougall in hospital on Monday (see the above link to Scotsman story).
anthony a
August 13th, 2008 11:25am Report this commentWhen did the old days of "low-key by-elections campaigns" come to an end?
Certainly not in my lifetime - the first by-election I can remember is Brecon & Radnor in 1985, following the death of Tom Hooson. I don't recall a "low-key campaign" for that by-election stunner.
James
August 13th, 2008 11:30am Report this commentFaceless Bureaucrat - is that true? And if so - which period of politics are you referring?
Ian Gow was killed by the IRA - yet Lib Dems still fought hard and won his seat.
Although the sentiments seem very sound and very honourable, it is also difficult to argue that an MPs death should detract from real democracy and the chance for voters to register a protest at the current Government.
My one fear is that we are getting ahead of ourselves. Glasgow East was a freak result which may not be the benchmark for other by-elections in safe Labour Scottish seats. A narrow win by Labour should still be seen for what it is - a damning indictment of a very poor Government.
Danny Fremantle
August 13th, 2008 11:31am Report this comment"Whilst I am sorry for the death of the MP, I cannot help but inwardly smile at the prospect of another by-election defeat for GB et al," said Simon. The tories? The nasty party? Surely not!
David C
August 13th, 2008 11:38am Report this commentBrown can hold off the election well past the Conference season and allow time for any momentum behind a putsch to dissipate.
Does anybody have thoughts on a Christmas by-election?
Stuart
August 13th, 2008 12:48pm Report this commentPresumably, with Parliament in recess, the writ for the byelection cannot be moved until after Parliament returns on 6 October? So a by-election at the end of that month? Is that correct?
If so, Brown may be a little safer as the intrigue of the conference season will have passed.
talorthane
August 13th, 2008 1:20pm Report this commentDavid C
"Brown can hold off the election well past the Conference season..."
The problem with that is that Labour rushed through the Glasgow East by election not because it was the Glasgow trade holiday but on the basis that it would be unfair to leave the constituents without representation throughout the summer recess.
They've made a rod for their own back.
Mike Wood
August 13th, 2008 1:26pm Report this commentFaceless Bureaucrat, there hasn't been an uncontested byelection since 1946
David C
August 13th, 2008 2:21pm Report this commenttalorthane
August 13th, 2008 1:20pm
"They've made a rod for their own back."
For a party with a penchant for self-flagellation, I'd be astonished if they hadn't.
Still, Brown in a corner will use any tools he has. Compared to what he has done already (to whit; ripping up the Party Manifesto), delaying the writ would be a minor matter.
Nicholas
August 13th, 2008 3:10pm Report this commentDanny F: Better the nasty party than the nazi party - which is what your chums in the cloaked New Labour Project have become.
Mind you, when it comes to "nasty" in politics the socialist record is hard to beat. I'm trying to think of a Tory equivalent for Mao, Pol Pot, Stalin, Castro, Ceauşescu, Honecker and Adolf Hitler? Can you think of one? Surely not?
Keith
August 13th, 2008 4:01pm Report this commentStuart
August 13th, 2008 12:48pm
Presumably, with Parliament in recess, the writ for the byelection cannot be moved until after Parliament returns on 6 October? So a by-election at the end of that month? Is that correct?
If so, Brown may be a little safer as the intrigue of the conference season will have passed.
The by-election writ can be moved while parliament is in recess.
Chris C
August 13th, 2008 4:04pm Report this commentIan Gower was killed by the IRA yet the Lib Dems still fought hard and won his seat.
Screaming Lord Sutch declined to stand in that by-election. When asked why he replied "In view of the nature of the previous members death, I did not think it appropriate".
My opinion of Sutch increased enormously after that.
John
August 13th, 2008 5:24pm Report this commentTony Benn? That even MORE dishonorable coward than McOneEye? That really WOULD be a black day.
John
August 13th, 2008 5:26pm Report this commentQuite so, Anthony A. 'Low-key campaigns' is a complete myth.
"It was decent of Brown to fly up and visit MacDougall in hospital on Monday" - you mean, a devious political trick, surely.
John
August 13th, 2008 5:28pm Report this comment"Whilst I am sorry for the death of the MP, I cannot help but inwardly smile at the prospect of another by-election defeat for GB et al," said Simon. The tories? The nasty party? Surely not!
- What disgusting drivel. The nasty loony left has arrived, that's for sure.
Alex
August 13th, 2008 6:53pm Report this commentHow many Scottish seats are Labour likely to have left after the next General Election?
Anyone know the current bets on a complete wipe-out?
Max Kaye
August 13th, 2008 7:11pm Report this commentFaceless Bureaucrat, The Crewe and Nantwich by-election brought on by the death of Gwyneth Dunwoody was anything but 'low key'.
mitch
August 13th, 2008 8:39pm Report this commentcould we see Brown lose his seat in 2010? we can but hope.
Stewart
August 13th, 2008 8:45pm Report this commentIt's beginning to look a lot like Christmas... I'm no fan of slimey Salmond but anything that hastens the departure of this rotten, over-regulating, snooping, race obsessed, feminist, thieving, incompetent waster of a government is welcome. It's sad that the sitting MP MacDougall died, especially in such circumstances, but there must be a competitive election. Cancer robbed a man of his life, it shouldn't be allowed to rob his constituents of democracy.
Silent Hunter
August 14th, 2008 12:13am Report this commentOne can but shudder at the size of the 'tax bribe' that Broon is likely to throw at this one!
Safe to say that our children will be paying for it in increased taxes for years to come.
Frankly I really don't care how Labour MP's meet their denouement; be it political or corporeal.......as long as they DO is all that matters.
Alex....in answer to your question......we in Scotland are working towards the complete destruction of the hated Scottish Labour Party.
As Lawrence of Arabia said.....
"no prisoners....NO PRISONERS"!
Scott
August 14th, 2008 10:37pm Report this commentThe Holyrood seat of central fife, the westminster equlivilent was won by the SNP in the Scottish elections last year.
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