The danger to Obama of delay
James Forsyth 9:47pm
Dan Balz, the American Peter Riddell, has an interesting run down on Obama’s VP options. However, it is what he says about timing which caught my eye:
“Nothing is out of the question on timing, but the odds now favor an announcement no earlier than Friday. If Obama moves sooner, it will mean disrupting a schedule that is already set. He will be in Orlando Tuesday for a speech to the VFW convention, an important event that he probably won't want to overshadow with a vice presidential pick. Then he heads to North Carolina and Virginia for a bus tour on that runs into Thursday.If there is no announcement by then, the orgy of speculation will be off the charts -- perhaps just as Obama's advisers have planned.”
The Obama campaign has shown itself to be expert at stage craft but I think there is a risk in this approach as the longer Obama waits, the more buzz there will be about Hillary being his choice—look at how Real Clear Politics jumped on Balz’s reference to Clinton still being an outside possibility. There is then a danger that when Hillary isn’t picked, a bunch of Clintonites sound off to the media providing an annoying sub-story to the announcement for the Democratic ticket and damaging party unity.
One other thing that crossed my mind reading Balz’s piece is that the Obama campaign may want to give the press something to do on the weekend before the convention other than preview Obama’s acceptance speech. Expectations for that are already dangerously high and if the press spend the weekend beforehand hyping it, anything less than a speech on a level with Pericles’s funeral oration could be seen as failing to meet expectations.
Craig Strachan
August 18th, 2008 10:37pm Report this comment"He will be in Orlando Tuesday for a speech to the VFW convention, an important event that he probably won't want to overshadow with a vice presidential pick. Then he heads to North Carolina and Virginia for a bus tour on that runs into Thursday."
Okay, so when he's in VA on Thursday he can announce that it's Kaine. Or Webb.
Hal
August 18th, 2008 11:36pm Report this commentNot picking Hillary will work fine if Hillary devotes most of her convention speech to Obama, McCain and the election, rather than to the past. It would be nice if that husband of hers were to do the same. Presumably, Obama has worked this out with them; at least, I hope so.
If so, then announcing the VP choice just before the convention seems fine to me.
As for high expectations for Obama's acceptance speech, it would help to distinguish the media's expectations from those of likely voters. Yes, the media will have high expectations, as will people who read a blog such as this; Obama is the best orator in a long time in the US. But many, many voters haven't yet begun to pay attention. The acceptance speech is a chance for Obama to tell them a story about who he is and where he came from. I still remember "The Man From Hope" film from 1992, and Clinton's speech. It worked.
Ian C
August 19th, 2008 10:52am Report this commentI would hazard the guess that Hillary's calculation will be, 'stay clear so I get another run in 2012'.
Ian C
August 19th, 2008 11:49am Report this commentThe broader danger of Obama explained - compare what he is saying to what we know about Gordon Brown. Thetwo are as dnagerous as each other.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121910303529751345.html?mod=djemITP
Hal
August 19th, 2008 6:05pm Report this commentIan C, I just read that Wall Street Journal article, and Obama's plans sound pretty good to me. He proposes raising income taxes to about where they were in the late 1990s, a boom period in the US. He would take this revenue and distribute it to those near the bottom. We should keep in mind that income distribution in the US, after flattening from 1935-1975, is back to the levels of inequality of the 1920s. A little nudge towards evening things out is overdue, for pragmatic reasons as well as moral ones.
I also object to the author's describing those with high incomes as society's most productive citizens. Some are, some aren't.
TGF UKIP
August 19th, 2008 7:23pm Report this commentJames, a nice line in insults for Dan Balz.
Verity
August 22nd, 2008 9:00pm Report this commentWhat's Obama going to talk to the VFW about, I wonder, given that he has no military history anywhere in his family (unless there's a long lost half-brother we haven't heard of yet, middle name Hussein, who fought somewhere)? And he is friends with William Ayers, who bombed the Pentagon?
Anyway, I read that it's Chet Edwards from Texas. Personally, I don't think so. He doesn't have a high enough profile. But that's the skinny.
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