There’s no proof that Miliband is the answer to Labour’s problems, but we know that Brown is not
James Forsyth 8:57am
This morning’s ICM poll in The Guardian shows that David Miliband is no silver bullet for Labour’s problems: Cameron leads Miliband by the same margin, 21 points, he does Brown on the question of who would be the best Prime Minister. However, Miliband supporters will argue, as The Guardian’s editorial does, that Miliband’s ratings might improve as the public get to know him while the electorate has already made up its mind about Brown; August’s ICM poll shows that Labour under Brown has seen its support fall by 10 points compared to this time last year, while Tory support has risen by 10 points. It says something about Miliband’s name recognition, or lack of it, that ICM conducted this part of the poll online so that they could show respondents photos of the three men.
Cameron’s people will be delighted by how broad his support is. Cameron is preferred to Brown by voters in every age group, social class and region apart from Scotland. He trumps Miliband among every group except 18 to 24 year olds.
Given how little the public know about the various possible successors to Brown as Labour leader, Labour is unlikely to know for certain whether or not a new leader would improve its standing. (There is, obviously, a risk that the public could come to dislike Labour under a new Prime Minister even more than it currently does). But what it does know is how far it has fallen under Brown—The Guardian notes this morning that “Labour has not trailed by as much for so long since the days of Michael Foot”. That is the compelling case for Labour taking a risk and changing leader.



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Comments
Nicholas
August 19th, 2008 9:05amI wouldn't trust Milliband if he was assisting me to choose shirts in a high-street tailor shop, which is where he belongs.
I think it is time to raise the voting age to 25.
anthony a
August 19th, 2008 10:00amTo me, Miliband seems arrogant and patronising - I don't think any amount of "getting to know him" exposure will help change that.
To be honest none of the cabinet comes across as being a member of the human race.
David Gerard
August 19th, 2008 10:45amThey should get a toy sock puppet instead. http://notnews.today.com/2008/08/19/labour-selects-sock-with-eyes-as-new-leader/
TrevorH
August 19th, 2008 10:46amMilliband is an empty vessel. No that's not exactly true. Look at his family background look at the people gathered round the Sunday dinner table. He is an empty Marxist vessel.
We should raise the voting age to 57 ...
cityboozer
August 19th, 2008 11:00amThey don't have an answer to their own problems, so how dare they presume to address mine?
David C
August 19th, 2008 11:11amMiliband might not become leader. Indeed, reports from the 'grassroots' say that he would be soundly rejected. But surely Labour would not repeat the mistake of failing to hold elections for its Leadership. At such elections, the public will get to see what has been overshadowed by Brown's desire for control and the PLP, with input from the CLPs, will have some say in the direction the Party should take.
What is certain is that Brown is a disaster. He has betrayed everything that 'old' Labour stood for to maintain his grip on personal power.
Labour will be defeated at the next GE. They can choose to go down fighting for what they really believe in, or they can sink into the abyss flying the disgraced NuLabour banner.
But they have to find the courage to wield the axe. The cuckoo in No.10 will not go willingly.
cuffleyburgers
August 19th, 2008 11:46amBring it on; I reckon Joe Public, smarting from the humiliation of realizing that Labour they have repeatedly voted for have all along been a bunch of incompetent lying crooks, will give him the raspberry as well, and since they wouldn't have the brass neck to put in another unelected leader (well actually I wouldn't put anything past these people ) it might bring forward the GE and we can get stuck into clearing up the mess.
David
August 19th, 2008 11:49amThe fact that Cameron has done Miliband's job for him over the past week or so shows quite clearly why Mili is not suitable for higher office. He's not even suitable for the one he has now. And I don't by the idea that the public will like him once they get to know him. Those more politically tuned-in have gotten to know him, and the overall impression is of a nerdy, ineffectual and slightly weird man.
Alex
August 19th, 2008 11:59amCan't they should just call a General Election and be done with it?
Dave G
August 19th, 2008 12:27pmAll anyone needs to know about Miliband was on display during the days leading up to the signing of the Lisbon treaty. Dishonest, disingenuous, able to state with a straight face that black is in actual fact white in his own narrow interest. Can any one really doubt that this is the true heir to Blair, he is perfect to lead the modern labour party in every way.
Harriet
August 19th, 2008 12:32pmTalk about shifting deckchairs on the Titanic.
You're going, heaps of you.
No more John Lewis. No more pumped up pensions. No more quango cheques for your buddies.
Doesn't matter who's at the helm. Muppetbland, Hagwomanthing etc.
Even when they reverse policies, the electorate aren't listening. That's it, goons. Game over. Out. Taxis all round - and not on taxpayer expenses. Close the door after you and don't come again.
Down you're all going. Just tell us the day to get the bunting out, that's all that's required.
John Page
August 19th, 2008 12:58pmJames -
"It says something about Miliband’s name recognition, or lack of it, that ICM conducted this part of the poll online shows that they could show respondents photos of the three men."
Run that past me again? Should "shows" be "so"? Is then his appearance so distinctive?
Max Kaye
August 19th, 2008 1:17pmI was encouraged by a photo in today's edition of The Times depicting a very unhealthy-looking Brown.
James Forsyth
August 19th, 2008 1:31pmJohn, Apologies. I was under cafeinated when I typed this. Fixed now.
Ted Tedford
August 19th, 2008 1:41pmSurely there's a better-than-even chance that, once the Great British Public 'get to know' Miliband, and his sub-Blair faux estuary gurglings, his ratings will be even worse.
D Davies
August 19th, 2008 2:23pm"And putting aside your own party preference, based on what you know which of these two do you think would make
the best Prime Minister"
Should it not be the "better Prime Minister"
Tim Carpenter LPUK
August 19th, 2008 3:19pm"Should it not be the 'better Prime Minister'"
Least worst Prime Minister, and even then, I don't like false dichotomies.
Paul L
August 19th, 2008 6:56pmMax Kaye - the photograph of deathly Broon is in complete contrast to the footage of Tony Blair at the Olympics today.
Argghhh - I think I might miss him a tiny wee bit.
Wilfred
August 19th, 2008 7:40pmI see a large number of the Coffee House readership are switching their schoolboy insults from Brown to Miliband. Beware, Tories: this ploy will not work twice with the electorate. If Miliband gets in, you'd better start focussing on policies for a change. Calling the guy a nerd or an empty vessel, when he's plainly one smart dude, will not wash. You'd better hope he doesn't take over from Broon. Which is why you've started insulting him, I suppose. How about talking real politics for a change?
John Page
August 19th, 2008 7:50pmThe picture I saw was of Brown at a funeral mourning an old friend. Let's see how he looks when he's back in London. Let's not tastelessly exult over people's grief.
Max Kaye
August 19th, 2008 9:54pm.... I thought I was exulting over Brown's grief in a tasteful manner.
And I suppose that when the time comes for Brown to depart this place you'll admonish me with de mortuis nil nisi bonum.
Unlike some other Labour politicians for whom I do (or did) have some liking and respect, I neither like or respect Brown. I have not a shred of sympathy for him or his supporters and I'll not pretend otherwise.
T F Bundy
August 20th, 2008 5:59amWilfred: Miliband is the "genius" responsible for reducing our rubbish collections to twice weekly. One "smart dude" indeed!
Nicholas
August 20th, 2008 7:58amWilfred. Ha! The socialist pot calling the Tory kettle black! It's the socialists who do personal attack best and have always done so. They have always attacked the man and not the argument.
Real politics is why the majority of the country are sick and tired of Labour. Their frustration at the idiots who pass for a cabinet persevering in inflicting more nonsense on them instead of calling the GE everyone desperately wants is now manifesting as real hatred for Brown and his junta.
We don't want you. We don't want your barmy, socialist, Britain-breaking policies or your nasty nannyism. We don't want your money-wasting quangos. We don't want your stupid attempts at social engineering, multi-ethnic muddle or diversity bollocks. We don't want your vast legions of jobsworth government employees spying on us, peering in our waste bins and telling us how to live our lives. We don't want your rotten brainwashing schools and your worse filthy hospitals. We don't want your constant propaganda, spin and lies. We don't want your endless re-launches and sad, incompetent groping for favourable headlines. We don't want your Common Purpose or any of your other subversive, devious, surrogate-soviet conspiracies for turning this country into a Marxist police state. And we don't want Labour trolls posting their pathetic damage control on our free expression. Our free expression to despise this government and all it stands for. Now go away!
T F Bundy
August 20th, 2008 9:37amRe. my last post: Obviously I meant once a fortnight, not twice weekly. Teach me to post at a more reasonable hour in future.
SaneWilfred
August 20th, 2008 10:26pmBravo Nicholas!
I've only been posting on this site for 5 minutes, yet I appear to have acquired a nasty Leftist doppelganger! Miserable wretch.