Is Fabio the man to bring an end to forty years of hurt?

The most encouraging thing about the news that Fabio Capello is set to become England manager is his refusal to accept egos in his team. One of the problems that has so blighted England in recent years is our obsession with star players at the expense of the team itself; exhibit a is how long the Lampard--Gerrard partnership was kept going despite the fact it was evident the two of them could not play together. Equally, the England team is blighted by mediocre players whose huge wage packets persuade them that they’ve made it. Just look at how many of them swan around in white or red boots—which really should be the preserve of the odd exceptionally skilled Brazilian.

The talent is there for England to have a decent side, we just need a manager who can pick the best XI and get the players to perform at the same level for their country as they do for their clubs. For the optimists among us, you can get 14 to 1 on England to win the 2010 World Cup.

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Listen to last night's Iraq debate

We now have the full audio of last night’s Spectator / Intelligence Squared Iraq debate available. Whatever your opinion on Iraq, it really is worth listening to, the speakers were eloquent exponents of their positions and the questions from the floor were in the finest, robust traditions of British public debate. Also, do read Lloyd Evans’s excellent review of the event.

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An illegitimate argument

Today’s headlines about how one in five kids is born to a foreign mother overlooks a rather interesting fact. In London, it’s one in two. And these newcomers conform better than natives to what we like to call “traditional” British values – in that far more of them are born inside marriage. When researching my political column for tomorrow’s treble issue (our biggest ever, don’t miss it) I found that if you stripped out immigrants then 2007 will prove to be the first year in recorded British history that most kids would be born outside marriage. So this year we have passed a true social landmark: what we used to call “illegitimacy” has this year become the norm (for British-born people, anyway). And only mass immigration conceals this trend.

Live births in UK within marriage (as %) by country of birth of mother. Source: ONS.
 
            All         UK                      New      Far    Pakistan
           in UK    Born     Ireland Cwlth    East
2002   59.4      54.6      69.5      86.9      84.8     98.4
2003   58.6      53.6      67.4      85.8      86.2     98.2
2004   57.8      52.5      67.9      85.4      88.3     97.9
2005   57.2      51.5      66.2      84.8      85.5     98.0
2006   56.5      50.6      67.7      84.8      85.2     97.9
2007*  55.8     49.6      66.4       84.3     86.6     97.8
* 2007 data is a projection, from five-year trend

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Tony Benn's lack of General knowledge

Did anyone else notice a slightly alarming episode during last night’s Spectator/Intelligence Squared Iraq debate? After an air-borne (from the gallery) intervention by General Sir Mike Jackson, Tony Benn responded forcefully then leant over to his neighbour, Rory Stewart, to ask, not quite quietly enough, ‘Who was that fellow?

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Labour's thin blue line on pay

At first glance, Labour’s decision to pick a politically damaging fight over police pay when avoiding it would cost £40 million at most is bizarre. But as Michael White explains in The Guardian this morning, police pay is just the first public sector pay battle that Labour will have to fight.

With the public finances in a battered shape and inflation rearing its ugly head, the government has to keep a lid on public sector pay.  So, expect a series of rows like this one over the coming year. The problem for Gordon Brown is that these fights are going to alienate Labour from a key part of its voting bloc just at the time when it needs every vote that it can get. The discontent of these public sector workers is an area that the next Lib Dem leader can look to profitably exploit.  

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Going negative

The Republican primary race has entered a decisive phase with Mitt Romney’s decision to go negative on the surging Mike Huckabee. Romney’s unleashed the first attack ad of the campaign hitting Huckabee for his position on immigration and he’s knocking him in tough language on television, telling last night’s evening news that: “I’m convinced as people take a good hard look at Mike Huckabee’s record, they’ll see this is a guy who is soft on criminals, soft on illegal aliens, but hard on taxpayers. And that’s not what’s going to lead the Republican party to take the White House.” On top of this, Romney’s favourite outlet for opposition research, The Drudge Report, is playing up stories that are damaging to Huckabee.

This is a risky strategy for the Romney campaign. First, Iowa voters are notoriously dislike negative campaigning and so Romney risks a backlash in a state he really needs to win after devoting unparalleled resources and effort to it. Second, if these attacks don’t work they’ll inoculate Huckabee against the charges down the line. Third, the rest of the GOP field don’t like Romney much—partly because of his hypocrisy, the man who is attacking others for wanting to let the children of illegal immigrants go to university at the in-state rate has been caught with illegals working on his lawn twice—and can use Romney’s negative ads as a good chance to take a swipe. 

The Democratic race might be close but it is predictable: either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will end up as the nominee. On the Republican side, there are five guys still in with a real chance of winning the nomination and no one can really tell you how this is going to pan out. Expect the fight to get very nasty before it's all over.

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Listen Live: The Great Iraq Debate

You can now listen to the Spectator / Intelligence Squared Iraq debate from Methodist Central Hall by clicking here. The cast of speakers is stellar and includes William Shawcross, Sir Christopher Meyer and Tony Benn.

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Is there anything less festive...

Than miserable looking employees in Santa hats. Getting my coffee this morning, I was struck by just how dejected all the baristas in Santa hats looked. If some Union wants to launch a campaign against folk being forced to wear them, I’m with them.

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Putin will still be calling the shots in Russia

Dmitri Medvedev, who Vladimir Putin anointed as his successor yesterday, today pledged to make Putin Prime Minister of Russia when he takes office. Medvedev even admitted that Putin would be more powerful than him:

“In order to stay on this path, it is not enough to elect a new president who shares this ideology,” Mr. Medvedev said. “It is not less important to maintain the efficiency of the team formed by the incumbent president. That is why I find it extremely important for our country to keep Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin at the most important position in the executive power, at the post of the chairman of the government.”

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Why there's so much talk about the Labour succession

Both Rachel Sylvester and Steve Richards cast their expert eyes over the Labour succession in their columns today. The current emphasis on who will succeed him must be absolutely infuriating for Gordon Brown, nothing makes a leader look like a lame duck more than everyone speculating about who will be next.

The explanation for this emphasis on the coming leadership battle in the Westminster village is, as both Richards and Sylvester note, the belief that Gordon will only fight one election as PM. As Fraser first revealed back in August, the PM is sceptical about the chance of the public giving someone over 60 a mandate that would carry them beyond retirement age. (Fraser also made the point that, “Rule number one of being PM is: never talk about retirement. Or it might happen sooner than you think.” The Bronwites would have done well to heed this warning.)

Personally, I still can’t see Ed Balls as PM. As Stephen points out, he might be a very clever man but he lacks the presence that you need for the top job. If I had to pick an outside bet to follow Gordon, I’d put a fiver on Jon Cruddas. Remember that he came first in terms of first preferences for the deputy leadership job. He’s well out of this current government and the ongoing Brownite and Blairite feuds and it is hard to imagine anyone in Westminster less likely to be tainted by sleaze. If the Labour party feel like a blast of the old religion, then Cruddas might well be their choice.

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