Post-Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton scored a solid victory in the Pennsylvania primary.  How is Team Obama going to react?  Find out over at Americano.

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The 10p tax U-turn

Gordon Brown doesn’t get it. Even his U-turn over the 10p tax rate (announced just time for PMQs in the form of a letter to John McFall) is devilishly complicated. There will be compensation for 60-64 year olds and low-paid workers without children. This will come in the form of winter fuel payments or new tax credits. I am sure that in a spreadsheet somewhere in the Treasury, this makes it all okay. But it won’t work outside Westminster and I’ll tell you why.

I spent yesterday on the campaign trail in Greater Manchester and saw for myself the anger. Pensioners were spitting blood, shopkeepers fuming – even people who I suspected were not hit by the abolition of the 10p starting rate think they have been. It seems to crystalise what they don’t like about Brown, and the Tories are exploiting this mercilessly in the local government elections. The sort of people I encountered on the doorstep will not be assuaged by “well, you may get the cash back in the form of a complicated tax credit payment this time next year”. They see their pay package this month, versus last month, and are hopping mad that the amount has dropped. Brown’s solution is too bureaucratic and simply won’t cut it on the doorsteps.

Perhaps more importantly, this kind of U-Turn flies against what Brown said only last week in the White House and sends out a message – Brown buckles. The laddie is for turning. His majority ain’t that big. If you gang up on him, he will give way. So if the rebels settle for this U-Turn, you can bet they will be certainly back for more.

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The finishing post is in sight

I don’t know a single person in Westminster willing to predict the outcome of the Mayoral election. Most people I speak to say their gut tells them Livingstone will win, but they can’t rationalise it. The bookmakers, however, are seeing a decisive shift to Boris, who has been cut from 4/7 to 1/2 by Ladbrokes. It has just released a statement saying “For every pound we're taking on Livingstone we are currently taking two on Johnson. If money talks Johnson wins." 

We should also factor in a significant media swing behind Boris in the last few days, and I’ll eat my hat if Andrew Gilligan doesn’t have a nasty surprise for Ken up his sleeve in the Evening Standard. Tomorrow’s Spectator will, of course, put forward the case for our candidate. But, in the end, this race will be decided by whoever gets Paddick’s second preference votes. We’re then into the non-logic of the Labour Party deputy leadership contest. One source close to Boris told me he thinks there may well be just a few thousand votes in it. Their best hope is that the money, not the commentariat, is right.

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Happy St George's Day

It's St George's Day today, so – if you haven't already – do check out the special articles from the latest issue of the Spectator, and have your say on England in this Coffee House thread.

There's also plenty of relevant coverage in today's papers, including a Jack Straw article for the Daily Mail. Here's what the Justice Minister has to say:

"One of the things which makes me most angry are people who try to claim the St George's flag for the far Right...

...It wasn't owned by any political party - least of all the BNP. It was about England.

Anyone proud to be English is equally proud of St George and what, down the ages, his myth and his flag have come to represent for this nation within the United Kingdom.

For years the far Right have tried to swathe themselves in the Cross of St George and insinuate that they and their kind have an exclusive right to use it, that they could determine what it meant to be English - with the message that if you weren't white, you weren't English.

It was that kind of self-righteous bigotry which motivated the killers of the young black teenager Stephen Lawrence, whose murder exactly 15 years ago was commemorated in a moving service yesterday...

...it's no accident that a more explicit consciousness about England has coincided with the rise of nationalism in Wales and Scotland.

But part of the answer is not so good. I detest racist language and attitudes as much as anyone.

But, like equalities chief Trevor Phillips, I also have a deep aversion to political correctness, which has meant that debate about some issues like immigration has too often been wrapped in euphemisms which do not connect with the genuine concerns that many (including my Asian and Irish heritage constituents) actually feel.

It's as though we have felt shy about promoting all that is good about England for fear of upsetting people, without any evidence that it would. And if it did, so what?

...That's why it was so good to see some of my Asian constituents watching the St George's Day celebrations in Blackburn.

It doesn't mean that by celebrating England they are somehow denying their cultural background - but what it does do is to help to underline that there is nothing to stop people of all backgrounds sharing pride in their English heritage, and being up-front in doing so."

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Should the flag of St George fly over Downing Street?

I must admit to mixed feelings at the news that Number Ten will fly the flag of St George tomorrow. On the one hand, it’ll be an impressive sight and compared to the dog’s dinner of devolution is hardly likely to tear at the constitutional fabric. On the other, Downing Street is the home of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and so the only flag that should fly over it is the Union flag.

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Gaffes galore

Even spell-checker's rebelling against Gordon Brown.  On the Labour website earlier: "excellance for all".  It's been fixed now, but not before some quick-thinking types captured screen grabs. 

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How can Brown make amends?

How should Brown deal with the 10p tax band issue?  That's the question that was put to Politics Home's group of 100 political insiders today.  In answer - some 62 percent of repondents believe he should help low income earners by raising the threshhold at which people start paying tax.  By contrast, only 10 per cent thought the 10p tax band should be reinstated in the next Budget.  How would CoffeeHousers advise the Prime Minister? 

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Will the rebellion be quashed?

Team Brown’s clearly spooked by the 10p tax rebellion (and so it should be – as Jackie Ashley pointed out yesterday, the repercussions could be massive). The evidence? Well, the Prime Minister called Angela Smith all the way from America, to prevent her from resigning; he struck an unusually conciliatory tone in last night’s Parliamentary Labour Party meeting; and now there’s the news that Alistair Darling is to personally meet with concerned backbenchers ahead of next week’s vote on the Finance Bill.

But will the rebels be swayed by all this? Quite possibly. If this Government’s good at anything, it’s putting the screws on its members. How else to explain Gerry Sutcliffe’s incredible “my comments do not accurately reflect my views” back-down? Or even Kate Hoey’s excuse for her Boris campaign no-show? We just have to hope that helping low-income earners is too important a cause for the rebels to drop.

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It's crunch time

With polls in Pennsylvania having opened - and with everyone expecting a Clinton victory - do check out Americano's guide to how to interpret her winning margin.

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The Sun shines on Boris and Paddick says he couldn't work for Ken

This morning, The Sun offers an enthusiastic endorsement of Boris Johnson proclaiming that he ‘has the energy and the imagination to give this great city what it needs.’ Meanwhile, in an interview with The Times Brian Paddick is scathing about Ken Livingstone declaring “I just don’t trust Ken Livingstone”. Paddick goes onto say, “The thought of having him as my boss sends shivers down my spine.”

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