Carter got

The Independent on Sunday’s report that Stephen Carter has been demoted is hugely significant. If it is right, and I have no reason to think it is not I just haven’t independently confirmed it, it suggests that a change in strategy is coming; that the Brownites are going to adopt a more bare-knuckle approach.

In recent weeks, Carter has been advocating not trying to tear David Miliband down, he played a key role in the brokering of the Peace of Minorca, and trying to separate David Cameron from his party, Carter argues that the public believe Cameron to be a decent guy and a moderate so attempting to demonise him won’t work and that the best strategy therefore is to say to voters OK Cameron is alright but what about the rest of them. Carter’s slide down the Downing Street pecking order suggests that he has lost both these arguments and that we will soon see full-on personal attacks launched on both Miliband and Cameron.

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A political hurricane

It seems rather Jo Mooreish to be discussing the political implications of Hurricane Gustav as people are forced to evacuate their homes but with the hurricane expected to make landfall as the Republican convention gets under way and with the legacy of Katrina there is an unavoidable political angle to this story. As Fraser notes, the Republicans cannot in the current circumstances have a typical convention. It would be wrong both stylistically and substantively to have speakers indulging in partisan rhetoric as a natural disaster strikes.

At first blush, this appears to put John McCain at a further disadvantage. While the Democrats had four days of wall to wall media coverage and Barack Obama delivered his speech to 80,000 people in a stadium and 38 million watching on TV, the Republicans are going to be presented in split screen with a hurricane and John McCain might well deliver his speech not in the convention hall but via-video link.

But the news is not as bleak as it first appears for the Republicans. The storm gives McCain an opportunity to demonstrate the crisis-management skills he would bring to the White House and to present himself as a figure who puts country above partisan interests. Also, preventing a like for like comparison between McCain and Obama’s convention speeches is no bad thing for McCain. While avoiding pictures of the Republican convention cheering Bush and Cheney to the rafters is probably a good thing for the McCain campaign. On top of this, the current situation offers the GOP the chance to show a different side to it than the caricature of it that is sometimes presented in the media; delegates preparing care packages on the convention floor would be a compelling image.

Perhaps, the biggest political effect of the hurricane is that it has slowed the race to define Sarah Palin. There are limits to how hard the Democrats or the press can go after her in the current circumstances. Equally, the McCain campaign’s roll-out of her is no longer dominating the news as it was on Friday. On the one hand, this focus on a natural disaster emphasises executive skills and experience, something that Palin is the only person on either ticket to really have. On the other, the gap gives the media and the Democrats more time to research her record and could lead to a flood of questions about various mini-scandals in Alaska being dumped on her as soon as the hurricane has passed.

Hurricane Gustave is, like the Russian invasion of Georgia, a reminder that events are going to impact the presidential race between now and November 4th in a way that no one can confidently predict. Which campaign reacts better to these unwanted surprises is going to play a crucial role in deciding who comes out on top on November 4th

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Will Hurricane Gustav dent McCain's hopes?

I’m in Denver airport waiting for what a Republican friend in St Paul has just informed me is likely to be a one- or two-day convention. Even if Hurricane Gustav does not cause the destruction expected, it may yet blow away McCain’s chance of victory. The Republicans are acutely aware that this brings back memory of the Bush administration’s disastrous handling of Hurricane Katrina. Bush and Cheney are the last people the Republicans want on stage, and they have both pulled out. McCain knows he will be judged more by his response to Gustav than what he says in the speech, so even he may not turn up – there’s talk of him speaking by videoconference. FEMA has released its estimate of what’s in the way of the Gustav, now 400 miles away from New Orelans: 5.6 million people, 2 million  buildings and likely to cause $26bn of damage. Barack Obama will get a post-convention bounce, probably eight points or so. Its now almost certain that McCain won’t have the type of convention that would allow him to pull even.

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The East London Carnival?

The streets around my house have now been cleaned, shops have opened again and any trace of the colour-packed, music-filled event that is the Notting Hill Carnival has disappeared. The event was a success. Towards the end, police did fight a battle with about 40 youths and ended up arresting 330 people – up from 246 last year. But overall, the event went smoothly with about 850,000 people enjoying the music, floats and the alluring energy of African-Caribbean popular culture.

So why, one week after the event, am I writing this blog? Because I think that the event needs to move on. Rather than plan next year’s event, the organisers – the Notting Hill Carnival Trust Ltd – and Mayor Johnson need to use the carnival to do to London’s poorer boroughs what it originally did for the poverty-stricken Notting Hill

Let me explain. The Notting Hill Carnival was created to in 1959 as a response to the state of race relations at the time; the Notting Hill race riots had occurred the previous year and the area was then one of London’s poorest. Known as 'Notting Dale', the area was little more than a slum, with black people turned away from pubs and landlords refusing to rent to black families, advertising for rooms to rent specifying 'no coloureds'.

But through years of regeneration, helped in part by the carnival, things began to change. The carnival itself went through a rough patch - marred by riots in the late 1970s. But more recently troubles have eased and to quote the official blurb, it’s viewed as “a dynamic celebration of London's multi-cultural diversity.” It also brings considerable money to Notting Hill’s shops, vendors and traders.

But here lies my problem. Notting Hill is no longer the centre of race tensions or of grinding, disillusionment-inducing poverty. Plenty of socio-economic challenges remain in the wider area, a backdrop for the gangs-and-kids flick Kidulthood. But the predominant dilemma troubling the bankers and other well-heeled inhabitants of the carnival route is whether to have dinner at the Notting Brassiere or the Notting Hill Grill.

Meanwhile, across town things are still in a bad state. Every ward in Hackney is among the 10% most deprived in the country, with 47% of children living in low income households. Tower Hamlets is one of the poorest places in Britain, with a mass of council housing and run down shopping areas. The World Health Organisation recently reported that baby boys born in Hampstead are likely to live 11 years longer than those living in King's Cross.

Though racial tensions cannot be compared to the 1960s, they remain and are now no longer only between blacks and whites, but between many different communities.

Why not use a Notting Hill Carnival to address some of these problems? It’s no silver bullet. It will need to be backed up with real policy changes. But an annual event could bring money and a strong, positive and immediate message about the need for different communities to live harmoniously together. Roll on the East London Carnival.

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Forcing the narrative

There's a comment piece by Gordon Brown in today's Observer, and one by David Miliband in the Mail on Sunday.  The subject of both? Russia and the Georgian crisis.

Our Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary's words on the matter are familiar by now - all about how Russian aggression is "unacceptable" and how they must recognise Georgian "territorial integrity".  But there's still little sign that this message will be backed up by substantive action, of any sort.

In which case, it's difficult not to read the articles from the perspective of a Kremlinoglogist.  Two comment pieces, on the same topic, by two senior ministers, in one day?  Yes, there's a European summit in Brussels tomorrow - but it still smacks of the Government trying to force the narrative away from Darling's frank admissions yesterday (which the Chancellor has since - embarrassingly - backtracked on).

And that's not the worst of it.  Remember how one of the most controversial aspects of Miliband's infamous Guardian article was how he didn't namecheck Gordon Brown?  Well, here's the headline to his Mail article today: "DAVID MILIBAND: The immediate instinct of the Prime Minister and I is clear: Speak out against aggression".  The Prime Minister and I?  It's hardly subtle...

The problem for the Government is that when even their statements on the Georgian crisis hint at internal party wrangling and backbiting, then it's going to be very hard for the international community - and British voters - to take them seriously.

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Picking a running mate like it is 2000

At first blush the selections of Joe Biden and Sarah Palin appear to have little in common. Obama went for an experienced Washington insider with a ton of national security experience, McCain went for a first term governor whose previous statements on foreign policy hardly suggest a great deal of knowledge about the subject. But the two picks do have something in common: they’re the picks you would have advised the candidates to make if they were running in 2000.

In 2000, with the misguided holiday from history still in full swing, Biden would have answered questions about Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience in the way that Cheney did for Bush. While picking a Palin-style figure then would have bolstered McCain’s reform credentials and his reputation as a different-kind of Republican. However, in 2008—with America fighting two wars and facing a resurgent Russia and an Iran that is dangerously close to going nuclear—the picks both seem somewhat unsatisfying. Biden on the grounds that the president himself should have the knowledge and judgement to deal with these questions and Palin because it is hard to imagine her stepping up to the presidency if something happened to McCain early in his first term.

The two picks have, to an extent, scrambled the race as neither side has chosen to double down on its message. Instead, the electorate faces a choice between tickets of change and experience and experience and change. The next few weeks will see both sides trying to redefine the race, how it looks going into the debates is going to be crucial. 

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Will Darling's frankness lose him his job?

Has Alistair Darling just earned himself the chop?  In an interview with the Guardian this morning, he claims that the current economic downturn could be the worst we've faced for over 60 years, and that voters are "pissed off" with the Government.

Frank admissions both.  But - as they depart completely from Gordon Brown's alleged belief that the economic storm clouds will start dispersing in a couple of months - No.10 may read them personal affront to the Prime Minister, and another supposed sign that the Chancellor is a dangerous livewire who needs to be dealt with in the forthcoming reshuffle.

On that front, Darling says that there are "lots of people who'd like to do my job".  Problem is for No.10, are there really any potential replacements that a) don't think the same as Darling, or b) if they do, they're sufficently loyal to the Prime Minister that they won't speak out?

P.S. Peter Oborne has an excellent article on Brown's denial over the state of the economy in today's Mail.

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The Palin pick

Talking to those Democrats who didn’t get the first flight out of Denver one picks up two conflicting emotions about the Palin pick: relief and fear. They are all happy that McCain has so neutered his attack on Obama’s experience; yes Obama was a state senator just four years ago but the person that John McCain—a 72 year old cancer survivor—has chosen to put a heart beat away from the presidency was the Mayor of a small Alaskan town then. But there is also real concern that John McCain might have finally found a domestic message; that he and Palin will run as reformers who are prepared to fight a broken system. Both McCain and Palin have—unlike the Democratic ticket—a record of taking on the special interests who exercise such a perfidious influence on American political life. There is a potent contrast between Palin who took on the corrupt Alaskan political establishment and Obama who worked with the Chicago machine when it suited him.

McCain has taken an almighty risk in picking Palin: one gaffe on national security from her could sink the ticket. But if, and this is a big if, Palin acquits herself well over the next 61 days then the pick could turn out to be political genius. Palin is someone who both excites the base (just check out National Review’s blog) and gets moderates, independents and disaffected Democrats to take a second look at the ticket. If picking Palin is a sign that McCain intends to run as a radical reformer between now and November 4th then it is encouraging. But those whose prime concern is national security would be reassured if they learned more, or even something, about what Palin thinks about the foreign policy challenges of our time. 
 

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The week that was

On Americano James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson have been reporting from Denver, Colorado, on the Democratic National Conference. James thinks McCain has rolled the dice with his VP pick and the Democrat electoral challenge. Fraser thinks Obama is too triumphalist and Hilary Clinton is positioning for 2012

Peter Hoskin asks if Brown has bought more time and how to sell a Cabinet

Sean Martin thinks timing is everything and that political correctness harms the fight against knife crime

Daniel Korski outs the Conspirator in Chief

Clive Davis shows what Obama is getting wrong

Trading Floor travels to the Nordic paradise

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McCain rolls the dice

A few weeks ago I was talking to a Republican who fretted that McCain wasn’t far enough behind. His worry was that the McCain campaign wouldn’t realise just how many risks it has to take to win. Well after McCain has tapped the young, inexperienced Alaska Governor Sarah Palin no one can make that argument anymore.

The question is this is a sensible risk or a stupid one? The argument for it being sensible is that she is a woman, a Washington outsider, a reformer, someone who excites social conservatives but doesn’t scare moderates and understands energy issues at a time when high gas prices regularly come in the top three issues for voters.

On the other hand, she has no national security experience and is not tested on the national political stage. Democrats are already saying how can someone who three years ago was mayor of Wasilla, whose population is less than ten thousand, be prepared to be a heartbeat away from the presidency. The TV pundits are already speculating about the stature gap at the VP debate between Joe Biden and her.

I suspect that the McCain campaign is betting that aggressive questioning of Palin’s experience from Democrats will appear sexist and that appealing to women and bolstering McCain’s reformist image is the most important thing for him to do. But this is a high risk, high reward strategy.

PS The McCain press release announcing her pick is below:

ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain today announced that he has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate and to serve as his vice president.

Governor Palin is a tough executive who has demonstrated during her time in office that she is ready to be president. She has brought Republicans and Democrats together within her Administration and has a record of delivering on the change and reform that we need in Washington.

Governor Palin has challenged the influence of the big oil companies while fighting for the development of new energy resources. She leads a state that matters to every one of us -- Alaska has significant energy resources and she has been a leader in the fight to make America energy independent.

In Alaska, Governor Palin challenged a corrupt system and passed a landmark ethics reform bill. She has actually used her veto and cut budgetary spending. She put a stop to the "bridge to nowhere" that would have cost taxpayers $400 million dollars.

As the head of Alaska's National Guard and as the mother of a soldier herself, Governor Palin understands what it takes to lead our nation and she understands the importance of supporting our troops.

Governor Palin has the record of reform and bipartisanship that others can only speak of. Her experience in shaking up the status quo is exactly what is needed in Washington today.

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