Monday, 18th February 2008
9:27pm
PML (N) and PPP in front for National assembly; many more results expected
Asif Ali Zardari is reported to be in Islamabad tonight for an emergency strategy meeting with Nawaz Sharif and other party leaders amid widespread fears of rigging.
Results are coming in, but the picture can still change. The PML (N) and the PPP, formally known as the PPPP (Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians) to differentiate them from other PPP factions, are in front of the pack as far as National Assembly results are concerned. If they hold their joint lead then this will be a dramatic result but, I repeat, the night is still young.
Provincially, Balochistan has the pro-Musharraf PML (Q) leading substantially. Sindh, Bhutto heartland, sees the PPPP sweeping the Province as expected. In Punjab, Nawaz Sharif’s PML (N) is ahead, and in the tribal North West Frontier Province, the nationalist Awami National Party is way out in front.
Geo TV has a violence round-up just so we know what bureaucrats mean when they say the day has been “relatively peaceful.”
A clearer voting trend may emerge around 3:00am Pakistan time.
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6:15pm
The issue of whether or not to recognise Kosovo demonstrates once again why the idea of a common European foreign policy is absurd. On this issue—as on pretty much any other contentious foreign policy decision you can think of—the European Union is split. 17 of the Union’s 27 members either have recognised Kosovo or will do so in the next few days. A common European policy would have had to gone against the wishes of one of these groups.
Ironically, for years it was thought that the European Union was the solution to the Kosovo question. Serbian officials dropped heavy hints that they would accept independence for Kosovo if Serbia got to join the Union at the same time. But the backlash against enlargement, means that this deal was effectively taken off the table. The Russians have stepped eagerly into this vacuum, bolstering Serbian opposition to Kosovo’s independence.
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6:02pm
With Boris again laying into Gordon Brown, CoffeeHousers should remember to have their say on the latter's most misleading statements. What tops your list of Brownies?
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5:34pm
PML(N) Sindh Province President S.G.A Shah told Coffee House on Sunday that the next Zardari-Sharif meeting for the new PPP/ PML(N) alliance will be on the 19th February, following on from their lunch last weekend. He emphasised that since neither of them are contesting a seat in this election, neither of them can be Prime Minister right now. (Though a by-election in a couple of months could fix that little problem).The PPP has refused overtures from Washington to join hands with Musharraf and together with the PML(N) has agreed to ask the President to resign.
The PPP Co-chair Asif Ali Zardari does not want to do business with the Bush regime, according to the News on Monday, preferring to talk to Democrats about elections, life and the universe.
Musharraf’s PML (Q) is confident that the new-found friendship between Sharif and Zardari will not produce a long-lasting coalition, according to the News. The writer argues that fresh elections may be needed after six months or so.
Bloomberg describes turnout as lower than in previous elections. S.G.A Shah agrees:
“Voters have been threatened and scared off, because of the circumstances and suicide bombs.”
(A lower turnout might help the PLM(Q), since the anger against high food prices, the cost of electricity, and the judiciary crisis may not have translated onto the street in the form of votes).
When S.G. A. Shah was Defence Minister, Pervez Mushrraf was a Major-General. Shah remembers him as “impulsive.”
He alleges that “high level rigging” will have taken place:
“Certain people from the PML (Q) have been caught by the Rangers with thousands of ballot papers … they stamp them so that when the actual voters turn up, they find their voting slips already filled in … In Gujrat, ID cards have been collected in return for money, to be returned one day after the elections. And in Sialkot, a constituency where a PML(N) candidate is standing, they have offered one Honda 70 motorcycle to anyone who can bring them 40 ID cards.”
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James Forsyth 4:41pm
Alistair Darling really should send Mohamed al-Fayed a thank you note. Fayed’s testimony is bound to bump Northern Rock off at least the front pages of the tabloids tomorrow. Perhaps this knowledge explains why Darling produced a calmer and more confident performance in the Commons today than many of us expected he would.
The most effective speeches came from Vince Cable and Ken Clarke. Cable took a well deserved victory lap and landed as many hits on George Osborne as Darling; Cable is clearly keen to keep ownership of this issue. While Clarke pointed out in his typical saloon bar style just what a distorting effect on the market the presence of a government owned bank would have on the financial marketplace.
George Osborne got all of his sound bites off and I expect that his performance will look better on the evening news than it did live on television. Tactically, the Tories are doing the right thing by voting against the bill tomorrow as this will give them more room to criticise when things go wrong, as they inevitably will.
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3:33pm
The polls have now closed and counting has begun. There have been shootings in Hyderabad and bomb blasts elsewhere, the latest murder tally for Monday can be viewed on the
Geo TV website ; reporters are saying there is an “average number of killings for Pakistan”. Next door, Delhi is in a state of alert as India fears a fallout across the border.
If Musharraf’s PML(Q) party manages to pull off a majority with its chief ally the MQM, there could be widespread agitation by the supporters of the main opposition parties the PPP and the PML(N). There have already been public meetings between Nawaz Sharif of the PML(N) and PPP co-Chair Asif Ali Zardari, and they now make joint statements in a show of solidarity as in a message of condolence and dismay at the PML(N) candidate murdered in a shooting on Sunday night
Musharraf has told the press that he is willing to work with a new PM and, perhaps as part of a new outlook, is adopting a conciliatory tone, talking of “the politics of accommodation.”
The Dawn’s analysis highlights my point about Punjab being a major battleground with its 148 seats in the National assembly.
Television channels (particularly Western ones) say endearingly that signs of rigging and fraud are not visible. Surely that is the point. M. Ziauddin of the Dawn says:
“Rigging has been perfected- you simply cannot catch them. Most of it is completed beforehand, with the last part done on the day. Apart from ghost polling stations, opponents in a strong position are often blackmailed. Also, where the riggers are winning, they pace up the polling, and where they are doing badly, they deliberately slow everything down on the day.”
Opposition groups talk of polling stations being physically moved into favourable locations.
Geo TV is now announcing results as they are declared by
returning officers; it seems to be too early to see a front runner. All the parties, including the PML(Q), are holding their own.
Just under two hours ago anchor Kamran Khan cross-questioned the presiding officer of a frontier province polling station which appeared to have decided its results well before the polls had officially closed. The presiding officer said that mostly people in the mountainous tribal region have voted well before the end of play so the officers, not expecting any more voters, count the ballot papers and then declare the result. Subtext, indicative of the ethos of the region: we know our locals best and we know what to do, so you know what to do with your official rules!
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2:45pm
There is something rather tragic about the spectacle of Mohammed al-Fayed sounding off in the High Court about the establishment’s supposed role in the death of Princess Diana. One doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry when one hears about statements like this from Fayed:
“Prince Philip rules the country behind the scenes. I think Prince Philip is the actual head of the Royal Family. He is a racist. He was brought up by his aunt who married one of Hitler's generals. This is the man who is in charge who is manipulating and can do anything.
"Time to send him back to Germany from where he comes. You want to know his original name – it ends in Frankenstein."
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12:08pm
Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have just delivered an absurd medley of deceptions, unwarranted boasts and blame-shifting. Their Northern Rock press conference in brief: everything's the fault of global forces, and we can be happy that Brown's "long-term decisions" will stave off the worst of it all. There's plenty of material there for the Spectator's Brownies campaign.
The worst part, though, was Brown's claim that "the reputation of London [as a financial centre] is secure". In truth, there are few scenarios which will dissuade foreign investment more than the forced nationalisation of a bank. When you factor in the Chancellor's track record - the misguided capital gains and non-dom tax proposals, and the attacks on executive wages - then it's clear that this Government has massively undermined business confidence in the UK.
The worry for investors is that - with the full force of the credit-crunch yet to be felt, and with Darling at the helm of the economy - things may only get worse...
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11:45am
The Prime Minister and his puppet Chancellor are currently facing the press and engaging in furious damage limitation. After that, the Chancellor will have to make a statement to the House where he can expect to be mocked by George Osborne and dissected by Vince Cable, who is the only politician to come out of the Northern Rock affair with his reputation enhanced.
This is not quite a Black Wednesday moment but it is a huge blow to the government’s record for economic competence. In many ways, nationalising Northern Rock was the easy bit. The government now has a whole bunch of problems on its hands; John Redwood has a list of questions that Darling needs to answer that is well worth looking at.
Northern Rock will not go away quickly or quietly. It will act as a constant drag on Labour’s poll ratings all the way up to the next election.
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11:06am
Bruce Anderson writes an essential piece in today’s Independent, in which he crystallises the tortoise-hare debate around changes in public opinion; the political narrative of the past thirty years; and Laffer curves. His conclusion? That David Cameron has the opportunity to forge a new consensus; one which doesn’t equate tax cuts with reductions in public services:
“Messrs Cameron and Osborne will remain cautious about promising tax cuts without explaining how they are to be funded. In one respect, however, the Tories can benefit from a change in public mood. Over the past two or three years a lot of voters have come to believe that this government is wasting a lot of money. As a result, it should now be possible to argue that a tighter control of public expenditure could lead to a more effective use of public funds.
There is a final factor: over the past couple of years, David Cameron has persuaded as number of voters that he is unequivocally committed to a high quality of public services. As a result, he should be able to succeed where his immediate predecessors failed: to promise to support the public services and offer the hope of tax cuts. If William Hague, Iain Duncan-Smith or Michael Howard had made those two points, neither would have been believed. In Mr. Cameron’s case, there is a good chance that both will seem credible. This is why he is on course to win the next election.”
The whole article’s well-worth reading.
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