Score one to Obama

On Tuesday night after the last vote in the Democratic primaries has been cast, Obama will speak in the very hall in which John McCain will accept the Republican nomination in September. It is a smart move by his campaign as it pushes the general election story-line front and centre, relegating Hillary Clinton to the third paragraph of the article. It also sets up an inevitable comparison between Obama’s speech and McCain’s convention address—a comparison that is unlikely to be favourable to McCain who is not in the same league as Obama as a set-piece orator.

The other thing which Obama’s choice of venue suggests is that he might have enough super-delegates lined up to gain an overall majority of delegates on Tuesday night. This would allow Obama to finally declare victory and do so in a general election swing state. The challenge for the Obama campaign, though, is not to get Hillary Clinton’s hackles up; they need to allow her to leave the race at a time of her own choosing. For that reason, Obama might hold back from saying that he is the Democratic nominee on Tuesday night even if he has the necessary amount of delegates.   

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Brown has been phoning round since 1997

The story that Gordon Brown personally calls members of the public who write him critical letters gets more bizarre with the news in today’s Guardian that he has apparently being doing this since 1997. This suggests that he can’t be calling that many people as otherwise this would have surely leaked out before now.

Someone who has received one of these calls told The BBC:

‘the prime minister apologised on behalf of the government "for what had happened to the people of Iraq".’

We’re still offering a case of champagne for anyone who has a genuine recording of one of these calls.

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Labour's money woes

Peter Oborne’s column in The Daily Mail reveals just how bad Labour’s financial position is. As Peter notes, there are doubts as to whether the party can be deemed a ‘viable going concern.’

Incredibly, there is a real chance that the Labour party might actually go bankrupt and that members of the NEC could find themselves personally liable for Labour’s debts:

"This threat of personal liability is now being taken very seriously indeed, so much so that the GMB trade union has already taken the extraordinary step of discussing at its last executive council meeting whether its two representatives on Labour's ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) should be indemnified against financial loss in the event Labour goes bankrupt. "

Most worryingly for Brown, Oborne reports that some private donors are indicating that they will give to Labour again but only if it dumps Brown. That old adage—follow the money—seems particularly relevant this morning.  

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"Madrassa Guardian"

Time was when the Guardian was the favourite British newspaper of the Indian elite because of its historic support for Indian independence and its generally liberal-left collectivist outlook, which coincided with the ideology of India's post-colonial governing classes until only recently (then they ditched socialist planning and the Indian economy is now growing at an unprecedented 9% a year as a result).
 
But the Guardian, it seems, is no longer the apple of New Delhi's eye. Consider this from the venerable Times of India on Saturday:

"The Guardian is far to the Left of not just the Tories but also of New Labour, the paper's constituency seemingly that of the "Londonistan" of mullahs and minarets. The Guardian used to be called the Manchester Guardian; today it might well be called, by fans and foes alike, the Madrassa Guardian." 

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The week that was

Some highlights of the week on Spectator.co.uk:

Matthew d’Ancona surveys the new political landscape.

James Forsyth asks if New Labour can survive opposition and looks at the Cruddas alternative.

Stephen Pollard explains why he is not unduly worried about 62 percent of the shadow cabinet being privately educated.

Americano takes a look at McCain’s VP shortlist and looks at the Republican Obama should pick as his running mate.

Clive Davis offers his take on whether Amy Winehouse lyrics have a place on a Cambridge exam paper.

Michael Millar wonders why Barclays appears to be encouraging rather reckless financial behaviour and wonders what Northern Rock will do if, as expected, some of its customers default on their mortgages.

And Melanie Phillips reflects on the strange death of political Britain. 
 

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Was the Chinese army responsible for the 2003 New York blackout?

National Journal has an eye-opening cover story this week on the extent of China’s e-espionage. The piece reveals that US intelligence officials believe that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army was probably responsible for the 2003 power cut that blacked out much of the east coast of the US.

The whole piece is well worth reading to get an idea of the scale of the problem. Apparently, President Bush has spent more time on this cyber threat in the last year than he did in the first six years of his presidency combined.

Hat Tip: Playbook

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The question Brown must answer if Labour is to recover

Stephen McCabe, the Labour whip who was in the charge of the Crewe and Nantwich campaign, has written an article for Tribune on his experience. The headlines will be grabbed by McCabe’s claim that there was no ‘toff strategy’ but more interesting is how he explains Labour’s defeat.

“Nor could we stem the drift from Labour of the aspirational 25- and 35-plus age groups

"Their message was simple. They were fed up with paying too much tax, too much for fuel and food, and feared for their economic future. Labour couldn't claim to be on their side. That remains the big challenge. What will we do to win back those 'switchers' who feel that Labour has let them down?"

Hat Tip: Political Betting

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Pakistan's failure to police its border is a threat to us all

The warning from the departing American commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan General Dan K. McNeill that Pakistan is once more pursuing the failed strategy of trying to strike a deal with militants needs to be heeded. The consequences of the Pakistani approach can be seen in the fact that attacks in eastern Afghanistan were up 50 percent year on year in April. It also threatens to once more create a safe haven for al Qaeda, undoing much of the progress that has been made against the group in the last year or so.  

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Labour's targets for fighting crime are about as much use as a chocolate fireguard

Tim Montgomerie flags up how the targets culture is distorting policing priorities with arresting a child for stealing a chocolate bar treated by the police as being as important as arresting a murderer. There’s little doubt that the police are going for the low hanging fruit when it comes to meeting targets. Indeed, the only way to really measure how the police are serving the public is to make them fully accountable. If police chiefs had to stand for election and re-election it would force them to concentrate on the crimes that most bother the public.

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Brown leads Labour to a historic low--new poll has Lab 23, Con 47, Lib Dems 18 

The headlines figures in today’s YouGov poll are disastrous for Brown, the historical comparisons are humiliating—even under Michael Foot the Labour party never sank this low in the polls, but what should really worry Brown about this poll is that he and Labour now trail Cameron and the Tories on every question.

Downing Street has been spinning the line that the recent election results have been so bad for Labour as they have been referendums on the government. The thinking goes that things will improve for Labour at the general election as it will be a choice between Labour and the Tories.  This new poll, though, offers no evidence for this theory. Indeed, on a forced choice between a Labour government under Brown and a Tory one led by Cameron, Tory support rises to 54 percent. The Tories have a 17 point lead on economic competence and Cameron a 22 point advantage on who would be the best PM. In these circumstances, framing the election as a choice between a Labour government and a Conservative one will do little, if anything, to improve Labour’s standing.

Jittery Labour MPs will want to pay particular attention to the news that only 8 percent of voters—and 14 percent of Labour supporters—think that it would harm Labour’s chances at the next election if they got rid of Brown while 32 percent—and 40 percent of Labour ones—say it would improve them. Brown’s personal rating is now minus 60 which is the worst ever recorded for any Prime Minister. As Anthony Wells notes, even at the nadir of his fortunes John Major was just above this mark. To adapt the song, thing keep getting worse for Brown. 

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